Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2024
“I wonder just what it takes to get people to conclude that a research seam has been mined to the point of exhaustion.”original ↗
26 Nov 2024
Keith O’Rourke’s final published paper: “Statistics as a social activity: Attitudes toward amalgamating evidence”original ↗
25 Nov 2024
Those correction notices, in full. (Yes, it’s possible to directly admit and learn from error.)original ↗
24 Nov 2024
Andrew Gelman is not the science police because there is no such thing as the science policeoriginal ↗
21 Nov 2024
5 different reasons why it’s important to include pre-treatment variables when designing and analyzing a randomized experiment (or doing any causal study)original ↗
18 Nov 2024
Anti-immigration attitudes: they didn’t want a bunch of Hungarian refugees coming in the 1950soriginal ↗
17 Nov 2024
15 Nov 2024
14 Nov 2024
14 Nov 2024
13 Nov 2024
13 Nov 2024
11 Nov 2024
Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trumporiginal ↗
9 Nov 2024
If you wanted to be a top tennis player in the late 1930s, there was a huge benefit to being a member of ____. Or to being named ____.original ↗
8 Nov 2024
8 Nov 2024
7 Nov 2024
Fake data on the honeybee waggle dance, followed by the inevitable “It is important to note that the conclusions of our studies remain firm and sound.”original ↗
7 Nov 2024
6 Nov 2024
What if the polls are right? (some scatterplots, and some comparisons to vote swings in past decades)original ↗
5 Nov 2024
4 Nov 2024
Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschoolingoriginal ↗
3 Nov 2024
A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted voteoriginal ↗
2 Nov 2024
Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?original ↗
1 Nov 2024
“Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???”original ↗
1 Nov 2024
Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data at will, and no need to download anything on your computeroriginal ↗
31 Oct 2024
A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past voteoriginal ↗
29 Oct 2024
28 Oct 2024
27 Oct 2024
24 Oct 2024
Postdoc opportunity! to work with me here at Columbia! on Bayesian workflow! for contamination models! With some wonderful collaborators!!original ↗
24 Oct 2024
23 Oct 2024
22 Oct 2024
3M misconduct regarding knowledge of “forever chemicals”: As is so often the case, the problem was in open sight for a long time before anything was doneoriginal ↗
22 Oct 2024
21 Oct 2024
Carroll/Langer: Credulous, scientist-as-hero reporting from a podcaster who should know betteroriginal ↗
19 Oct 2024
“It’s a very short jump from believing kale smoothies are a cure for cancer to denying the Holocaust happened.”original ↗
18 Oct 2024
Columbia Surgery Prof Fake Data Update . . . (yes, he’s still being promoted on the university webpage)original ↗
18 Oct 2024
Different perspectives on the claims in the paper, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Developmentoriginal ↗
17 Oct 2024
Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for Goodwin GM, Aaronson ST, Alvarez O, et al. Single-Dose Psilocybin for a Treatment-Resistant Episode of Major Depression. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206443.original ↗
16 Oct 2024
Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for van Dyck CH, Swanson CJ, Aisen P, et al. Trial of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2212948.original ↗
16 Oct 2024
“Things are Getting So Politically Polarized We Can’t Measure How Politically Polarized Things are Getting”original ↗
15 Oct 2024
She wants to know what are best practices on flagging bad responses and cleaning survey data and detecting bad responses. Any suggestions from the tidyverse or crunch.io?original ↗
13 Oct 2024
12 Oct 2024
The comments section: A request to non-commenters, occasional commenters, and frequent commentersoriginal ↗
11 Oct 2024
Update on that politically-loaded paper published in Demography that I characterized as a “hack job”: Further post-publication revieworiginal ↗
10 Oct 2024
10 Oct 2024
“Responsibility for Raw Data”: “Failure to retain data for some reasonable length of time following publication would produce notoriety equal to the notoriety attained by publishing inaccurate results. A possibly more effective means of controlling quality of publication would be to institute a system of quality control whereby random samples of raw data from submitted journal articles would be requested by editors and scrutinized for accuracy and the appropriateness of the analysis performed.”original ↗
9 Oct 2024
“Tough choices in election forecasting: All the things that can go wrong” (my webinar this Friday 11am with the Washington Statistical Society)original ↗
7 Oct 2024
Some references and discussions on the foundations of probability—not the math so much as its connection to the real world, including the claim that “Pr(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137”original ↗
7 Oct 2024
6 Oct 2024
Clybourne Park. And a Jamaican beef patty. (But no Gray Davis, no Grover Norquist, no rabbi.)original ↗
3 Oct 2024
2 Oct 2024
Wendy Brown: “Just as nothing is more corrosive to serious intellectual work than being governed by a political programme (whether that of states, corporations, or a revolutionary movement), nothing is more inapt to a political campaign than the unending reflexivity, critique and self-correction required of scholarly inquiry.”original ↗
1 Oct 2024
1 Oct 2024
“A Hudson Valley Reckoning: Discovering the Forgotten History of Slaveholding in My Dutch American Family”original ↗
30 Sept 2024
“Toward reproducible research: Some technical statistical challenges” and “The political content of unreplicable research” (my talks at Berkeley and Stanford this Wed and Thurs)original ↗
30 Sept 2024
28 Sept 2024
What’s the story behind that paper by the Center for Open Science team that just got retracted?original ↗
26 Sept 2024
26 Sept 2024