Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2024
25 Sept 2024
It’s martingale time, baby! How to evaluate probabilistic forecasts before the event happens? Rajiv Sethi has an idea. (Hint: it involves time series.)original ↗
24 Sept 2024
22 Sept 2024
22 Sept 2024
16 Sept 2024
Shreddergate! A fascinating investigation into possible dishonesty in a psychology experimentoriginal ↗
15 Sept 2024
Freakonomics asks, “Why is there so much fraud in academia,” but without addressing one big incentive for fraud, which is that, if you make grabby enough claims, you can get featured in . . . Freakonomics!original ↗
14 Sept 2024
13 Sept 2024
Movements in the prediction markets, and going beyond a black-box view of markets and prediction modelsoriginal ↗
13 Sept 2024
It’s Stanford time, baby: 8-hour time-restricted press releases linked to a 91% higher risk of hypeoriginal ↗
12 Sept 2024
Modeling Weights to Generalize (my talk this Wed noon at the Columbia University statistics department)original ↗
9 Sept 2024
8 Sept 2024
Sports gambling addiction epidemic fueled by some combination of psychology, economics, and politicsoriginal ↗
8 Sept 2024
7 Sept 2024
7 Sept 2024
If you want to play women’s tennis at the top level, there’s a huge benefit to being ____. Not just ____, but exceptionally ___, outlier-outlier ___. (And what we can learn about social science from this stylized fact.)original ↗
6 Sept 2024
In search of a theory associating honest citation with a higher/deeper level of understanding than (dishonest) plagiarismoriginal ↗
5 Sept 2024
Should you always include a varying slope for the lower-level variable involved in a cross-level interaction?original ↗
4 Sept 2024
31 Aug 2024
Why are we making probabilistic election forecasts? (and why don’t we put so much effort into them?)original ↗
30 Aug 2024
The statistical controversy over “White Rural Rage: the Threat to American Democracy” (and a comment about post-publication review)original ↗
29 Aug 2024
28 Aug 2024
27 Aug 2024
27 Aug 2024
25 Aug 2024
Heroes and Villains: The Effects of Identification Strategies on Strong Causal Claims in Franceoriginal ↗
24 Aug 2024
23 Aug 2024
21 Aug 2024
Implicitly denying the controversy associated with the Implicit Association Test. (Whassup with the American Association of Arts & Sciences?)original ↗
20 Aug 2024
The JAMA effect plus news media echo chamber: More misleading publicity on that problematic claim that lesbians and bisexual women die sooner than straight womenoriginal ↗
19 Aug 2024
17 Aug 2024
14 Aug 2024
12 Aug 2024
Data issues in that paper that claims that TikTok and Instagram have consumption spillovers that lead to negative utilityoriginal ↗
11 Aug 2024
Benefit of Stanford: Are there connections between unethical behavior in science promotion and cheating in private life?original ↗
10 Aug 2024
Crap papers with crude political agendas published in scientific journals: A push-pull problemoriginal ↗
9 Aug 2024
9 Aug 2024
Free Book of Stories, Activities, Computer Demonstrations, and Problems in Applied Regression and Causal Inferenceoriginal ↗
8 Aug 2024
7 Aug 2024
He wants to compute “the effect of a predictor” (that is, an average predictive comparison) for a hierarchical mixture model. You can do it in Stan!original ↗
6 Aug 2024
Adverse Adult Research Outcomes Increased After Increased Willingness of Public Health Journals to Publish Absolute Craporiginal ↗
5 Aug 2024
4 Aug 2024
Design analysis is not just about statistical significance and power; it’s relevant for Bayesian inference too.original ↗
29 Jul 2024
28 Jul 2024
27 Jul 2024
Two job openings, one in New York on data visualization, one near Paris on Bayesian modelingoriginal ↗
25 Jul 2024
(This one’s important:) Looking Beyond the Obvious: Essentialism and abstraction as central to our reasoning and beliefsoriginal ↗
24 Jul 2024
What to do with election forecasts after Biden is replaced on the ticket? Also something on prediction markets.original ↗
21 Jul 2024