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Why are we making probabilistic election forecasts? (and why don’t we put so much effort into them?)

Andrew Gelman · published 30 August 2024

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https://osf.io/preprints/osf/6g5zq
osf.io
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stat.columbia.edu
https://stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/what_learned_in_2016_5.pdf
stat.columbia.edu
https://stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/polling_3.pdf
stat.columbia.edu
https://archive.nytimes.com/campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/why-are-primaries-hard-to-predict/
archive.nytimes.com
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09332480.1993.11882474
tandfonline.com
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
economist.com
https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3643562.3672612
dl.acm.org
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0722(07
doi.org
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2018.1467985
tandfonline.com
https://www.cjr.org/analysis/fake-news-media-election-trump.php
cjr.org
https://www.cjr.org/analysis/election-politics-front-pages.php
cjr.org
Elsewhere on statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu (9)
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Polling averages and political forecasts and what do you really think is gonna happen in November? Read at the source ↗
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https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Erikson-and-Wlezien-POQ-2008.pdf
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https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Erikson-and-Wlezien-Electoral-Studies-2012-1.pdf
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Justin Grimmer vs. the Hoover Institution commenters Read at the source ↗
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