Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2024
19 Jul 2024
Polling averages and political forecasts and what do you really think is gonna happen in November?original ↗
18 Jul 2024
Bill James hangs up his hat. Also some general thoughts about book writing vs. blogging. Also I push back against James’s claim about sabermetrics and statistics.original ↗
17 Jul 2024
The recent Iranian election: Should we be suspicious that the vote totals are all divisible by 3?original ↗
16 Jul 2024
13 Jul 2024
12 Jul 2024
10 Jul 2024
A guide to detecting AI-generated images, informed by experiments on people’s ability to detect themoriginal ↗
9 Jul 2024
You can guarantee that the term “statistical guarantee” will irritate me. Here’s why, and let’s go into some details.original ↗
5 Jul 2024
4 Jul 2024
“A Columbia Surgeon’s Study Was Pulled. He Kept Publishing Flawed Data.” . . . and it appears that he’s still at Columbia!original ↗
3 Jul 2024
Holes in Bayesian statistics (my talk tomorrow at the Bayesian conference, based on work with Yuling)original ↗
2 Jul 2024
Interactive and Automated Data Analysis: thoughts from Di Cook, Hadley Wickham, Jessica Hullman, and othersoriginal ↗
1 Jul 2024
30 Jun 2024
Toward a Shnerbian theory that establishes connections between the complexity (nonlinearity, chaotic dynamics, number of components) of a system and the capacity to infer causality from datasetsoriginal ↗
29 Jun 2024
It’s lumbar time: Wrong inference because of conditioning on a reasonable, but in this case false, assumption.original ↗
28 Jun 2024
27 Jun 2024
23 Jun 2024
22 Jun 2024
This is not an argument against self-citations. It’s an argument about how they should be counted. Also, a fun formula that expresses the estimated linear regression coefficient as a weighted average of local slopes.original ↗
21 Jun 2024
What to do with age? (including a regression predictor linearly and also in discrete steps)original ↗
19 Jun 2024
19 Jun 2024
18 Jun 2024
“Beyond the black box: Toward a new paradigm of statistics in science” (talks this Thursday in London by Jessica Hullman, Hadley Wickham, and me)original ↗
17 Jun 2024
Myths of American history from the left, right, and center; also a discussion of the Why everything you thought you knew was wrong” genre of book.original ↗
16 Jun 2024
15 Jun 2024
14 Jun 2024
Arnold Foundation and Vera Institute argue about a study of the effectiveness of college education programs in prison.original ↗
13 Jun 2024
12 Jun 2024
1. Why so many non-econ papers by economists? 2. What’s on the math GRE and what does this have to do with stat Ph.D. programs? 3. How does modern research on combinatorics relate to statistics?original ↗
12 Jun 2024
I strongly doubt that any human has ever typed the phrase, “torment executioners,” on any keyboard—except, of course, in discussions such as this.original ↗
9 Jun 2024
8 Jun 2024
To what extent is psychology different from other fields regarding fraud and replication problems?original ↗
6 Jun 2024
5 Jun 2024
4 Jun 2024
Selection bias leads to confusion about the relative stability of deterministic and stochastic algorithmsoriginal ↗
3 Jun 2024
Update on “the hat”: It’s “the spectre,” a single shape that can tile the plane aperiodically but not periodically, and doesn’t require flippingoriginal ↗
1 Jun 2024
31 May 2024
Simulation from a baseline model as a way to better understand your data: This is what “hypothesis testing” should be.original ↗
30 May 2024
28 May 2024
Is there a balance to be struck between simple hierarchical models and more complex hierarchical models that augment the simple frameworks with more modeled interactions when analyzing real data?original ↗
26 May 2024
Break it to grok it: The best way to understand how a method works is go construct scenarios where it failsoriginal ↗
25 May 2024
24 May 2024
No, I don’t believe the claim that “Mothers negatively affected by having three daughters and no sons, study shows.”original ↗
23 May 2024
“Former dean of Temple University convicted of fraud for using fake data to boost its national ranking”original ↗
21 May 2024
18 May 2024
18 May 2024
17 May 2024
How to think about the claim by Justin Wolfers that “the income of the average American will double approximately every 39 years”?original ↗
15 May 2024
Fewer kids in our future: How historical experience has distorted our sense of demographic normsoriginal ↗
13 May 2024
What happens when you’ve had deferential media coverage and then, all of a sudden, you’re treated as a news item rather than as a figure of admiration?original ↗
10 May 2024
9 May 2024