Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2024
“There is a war between the ones who say there is a war, and the ones who say there isn’t.”original ↗
7 May 2024
6 May 2024
“You want to gather data to determine which of two students is a better basketball shooter. You plan to have each student take N shots and then compare their shooting percentages. Roughly how large does N have to be for you to have a good chance of distinguishing a 30% shooter from a 40% shooter?”original ↗
4 May 2024
Two kings, a royal, a knight, and three princesses walk into a bar . . . (Dude from Saudi Arabia accuses the lords of AI of not giving him enough credit.)original ↗
2 May 2024
Bayesian Workflow, Causal Generalization, Modeling of Sampling Weights, and Time: My talks at Northwestern University this Friday and the University of Chicago on Mondayoriginal ↗
1 May 2024
Does this study really show that lesbians and bisexual women die sooner than straight women? Disparities in Mortality by Sexual Orientation in a Large, Prospective JAMA Paperoriginal ↗
30 Apr 2024
“Often enough, scientists are left with the unenviable task of conducting an orchestra with out-of-tune instruments”original ↗
28 Apr 2024
27 Apr 2024
“When are Bayesian model probabilities overconfident?” . . . and we’re still trying to get to meta-Bayesoriginal ↗
27 Apr 2024
A nested helix plot that simultaneously shows events on the scales of centuries, millennia, . . . all the way back to billions of yearsoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2024
Whooping cough! How to respond to fatally-flawed papers? An example, in a setting where the fatal flaw is subtle, involving a confounding of time and cohort effectsoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2024
25 Apr 2024
24 Apr 2024
For that price he could’ve had 54 Jamaican beef patties or 1/216 of a conference featuring Gray Davis, Grover Norquist, and a rabbioriginal ↗
24 Apr 2024
Postdoc Opportunity at the HEDCO Institute for Evidence-Based Educational Practice in the College of Education at the University of Oregonoriginal ↗
23 Apr 2024
23 Apr 2024
23 Apr 2024
Storytelling and Scientific Understanding (my talks with Thomas Basbøll at Johns Hopkins this Friday)original ↗
22 Apr 2024
21 Apr 2024
Analogy between (a) model checking in Bayesian statistics, and (b) the self-correcting nature of science.original ↗
20 Apr 2024
The data are on a 1-5 scale, the mean is 4.61, and the standard deviation is 1.64 . . . What’s so wrong about that??original ↗
19 Apr 2024
N=43, “a statistically significant 226% improvement,” . . . what could possibly go wrong??original ↗
16 Apr 2024
No, it’s not “statistically implausible” when results differ between studies, or between different groups within a study.original ↗
15 Apr 2024
13 Apr 2024
12 Apr 2024
How large is that treatment effect, really? (my talk at NYU economics department Thurs 18 Apr 2024, 12:30pm)original ↗
11 Apr 2024
“He had acquired his belief not by honestly earning it in patient investigation, but by stifling his doubts. And although in the end he may have felt so sure about it that he could not think otherwise, yet inasmuch as he had knowingly and willingly worked himself into that frame of mind, he must be held responsible for it.”original ↗
10 Apr 2024
Here’s something you should do when beginning a project, and in the middle of a project, and in the end of the project: Clearly specify your goals, and also specify what’s not in your goal set.original ↗
9 Apr 2024
People have needed rituals to turn data into truth for many years. Why would we be surprised if many people now need procedural reforms to work?original ↗
8 Apr 2024
7 Apr 2024
“AI” as shorthand for turning off our brains. (This is not an anti-AI post; it’s a discussion of how we think about AI.)original ↗
5 Apr 2024
There is no golden path to discovery. One of my problems with all the focus on p-hacking, preregistration, harking, etc. is that I fear that it is giving the impression that all will be fine if researchers just avoid “questionable research practices.” And that ain’t the case.original ↗
4 Apr 2024
3 Apr 2024
“Bayesian Workflow: Some Progress and Open Questions” and “Causal Inference as Generalization”: my two upcoming talks at CMUoriginal ↗
3 Apr 2024
2 Apr 2024
“A passionate group of scientists determined to revolutionize the traditional publishing model in academia”original ↗
2 Apr 2024
Paper cited by Stanford medical school professor retracted—but even without considering the reasons for retraction, this paper was so bad that it should never have been cited.original ↗
1 Apr 2024
“Randomization in such studies is arguably a negative, in practice, in that it gives apparently ironclad causal identification (not really, given the ultimate goal of generalization), which just gives researchers and outsiders a greater level of overconfidence in the claims.”original ↗
31 Mar 2024
“Andrew, you are skeptical of pretty much all causal claims. But wait, causality rules the world around us, right? Plenty have to be true.”original ↗
30 Mar 2024
Every time Tyler Cowen says, “Median voter theorem still underrated! Hail Anthony Downs!”, I’m gonna point him to this paper . . .original ↗
29 Mar 2024
Banning the use of common sense in data analysis increases cases of research failure: evidence from Swedenoriginal ↗
28 Mar 2024
27 Mar 2024
26 Mar 2024
BD corner: I came across this interesting interview with Daniel Clowes on the sources for Monicaoriginal ↗
25 Mar 2024
25 Mar 2024
Hey! Here’s a study where all the preregistered analyses yielded null results but it was presented in PNAS as being wholly positive.original ↗
24 Mar 2024
Hey—let’s collect all the stupid things that researchers say in order to deflect legitimate criticismoriginal ↗
23 Mar 2024
“I was left with an overwhelming feeling that the World Values Survey is simply a vehicle for telling stories about values . . .”original ↗
19 Mar 2024
“On the uses and abuses of regression models: a call for reform of statistical practice and teaching”: We’d appreciate your comments . . .original ↗
17 Mar 2024
How often is there a political candidate such as Vivek Ramaswamy who is so much stronger in online polls than telephone polls?original ↗
16 Mar 2024
15 Mar 2024
“Hot hand”: The controversy that shouldn’t be. And thinking more about what makes something into a controversy:original ↗
15 Mar 2024
“Here’s the Unsealed Report Showing How Harvard Concluded That a Dishonesty Expert Committed Misconduct”original ↗
14 Mar 2024
Their signal-to-noise ratio was low, so they decided to do a specification search, use a one-tailed test, and go with a p-value of 0.1.original ↗
13 Mar 2024
11 Mar 2024
Refuted papers continue to be cited more than their failed replications: Can a new search engine be built that will fix this problem?original ↗
10 Mar 2024
9 Mar 2024
Mindlessness in the interpretation of a study on mindlessness (and why you shouldn’t use the word “whom” in your dating profile)original ↗
6 Mar 2024
How large is that treatment effect, really? (My talk at the NYU economics seminar, Thurs 7 Mar 18 Apr)original ↗
5 Mar 2024
Hey! Here’s some R code to make colored maps using circle sizes proportional to county population.original ↗
3 Mar 2024
Minor-league Stats Predict Major-league Performance, Sarah Palin, and Some Differences Between Baseball and Politicsoriginal ↗
1 Mar 2024
1 Mar 2024
29 Feb 2024