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Prediction markets in 2024 and poll aggregation in 2008

Andrew Gelman · published 10 November 2024

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https://www.marketplace.org/2024/11/07/betting-markets-donald-trump-victory/

marketplace.org

https://rajivsethi.substack.com/p/an-election-day-update-on-forecasting

rajivsethi.substack.com

https://stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/election_forecasting.pdf

stat.columbia.edu

https://stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/2024_Election_Forecasting_Review.pdf

stat.columbia.edu

https://rajivsethi.substack.com/p/the-lesson-for-markets

rajivsethi.substack.com

Elsewhere on statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu (2)

Polling by asking people about their neighbors: When does this work? Should people be doing more of it? And the connection to that French dude who bet on Trump Read at the source ↗

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Why are we making probabilistic election forecasts? (and why don’t we put so much effort into them?) Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu