41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a6d3d5ab9", "title": "1 quick tip to improving student participation in your class (motivated by a principle in poker)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/14/1-quick-tip-to-improving-student-participation-in-your-class/", "published_at": "2026-01-14T14:23:07+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a6ddda780", "title": "Survey Statistics: Margin of Error", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/13/survey-statistics-margin-of-error/", "published_at": "2026-01-13T21:00:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a6e84d269", "title": "A better way to fill in those missing bubbles in the standardized test", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/13/a-better-way-to-fill-in-those-missing-bubbles-in-the-standardized-test/", "published_at": "2026-01-13T14:28:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a6eac0b0e", "title": "What’s the essence of blogging?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/12/whats-the-essence-of-blogging/", "published_at": "2026-01-12T14:04:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a6f900bf5", "title": "The Mets are hiring", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/11/the-mets-are-hiring-2/", "published_at": "2026-01-11T19:55:27+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a70416153", "title": "“The Great Believers” by Rebecca Makkai", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/11/52534/", "published_at": "2026-01-11T14:51:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a7123aeaa", "title": "Concerns about the z-curve method", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/10/concerns-about-the-z-curve-method/", "published_at": "2026-01-10T18:15:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a71651b74", "title": "My general advice if you’re stuck on a problem understanding a model you’ve fit to data", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/10/my-general-advice-if-youre-stuck-on-a-problem-understanding-a-model-youve-fit-to-data/", "published_at": "2026-01-10T14:30:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a71fe1658", "title": "This one’s for the blimp", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/09/this-ones-for-the-blimp/", "published_at": "2026-01-10T01:34:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a7242ad89", "title": "8 arguments against polling (some are good arguments, some are bad)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/09/8-arguments-against-polling-some-are-good-arguments-some-are-bad/", "published_at": "2026-01-09T14:34:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d245-65e6-72fd-93ff-bd8a72583404", "title": "The soft bigotry of low expectations", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/08/the-soft-bigotry-of-low-expectations/", "published_at": "2026-01-09T00:59:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a2663cd5", "title": "What is “workflow” and why is it important?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/08/what-is-workflow-and-why-is-it-important/", "published_at": "2026-01-08T14:20:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a360d61c", "title": "It’s open season on the unabashedly earnest", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/07/its-open-season-on-the-unabashedly-earnest/", "published_at": "2026-01-07T17:20:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a39858b8", "title": "Uh oh prediction markets", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/07/uh-oh-prediction-markets/", "published_at": "2026-01-07T14:23:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a42091a8", "title": "Survey Statistics: 4th helpings of the logit shift", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/06/survey-statistics-4th-helpings-of-the-logit-shift/", "published_at": "2026-01-06T21:00:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a4f7bf67", "title": "The stories behind our published research from last year", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/06/the-stories-behind-our-published-research-from-last-year/", "published_at": "2026-01-06T16:36:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a5d4676f", "title": "Last post on the estimated effects of Mississippi school reforms", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/05/last-post-on-the-estimated-effects-of-mississippi-school-reforms/", "published_at": "2026-01-05T14:49:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a65f1fbe", "title": "When in doubt (in teaching and in research) do a simulation on the computer.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/04/when-in-doubt-in-teaching-and-in-research-do-a-simulation-on-the-computer/", "published_at": "2026-01-04T14:38:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a68695f3", "title": "The combination of originality, ambition, and lack of scruple can take you far in social science.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/03/the-combination-of-originality-ambition-and-lack-of-scruple-can-take-you-far-in-social-science/", "published_at": "2026-01-03T14:41:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a73a0de4", "title": "Barnard College president promotes free expression, does not comment on recent anti-free-expression policies at the college", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/02/barnard-college-president-promotes-free-expression-does-not-comment-on-recent-anti-free-expression-policies-at-the-college/", "published_at": "2026-01-02T14:08:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a7c8269d", "title": "Pinning the group-level variance parameters to speed computation for hierarchical models", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/01/01/pinning-the-group-level-variance-parameters-to-speed-computation-for-hierarchical-models/", "published_at": "2026-01-01T14:43:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a8932c07", "title": "What we can remember (the vagaries of literary fame)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/31/what-we-can-remember-the-vagaries-of-literary-fame/", "published_at": "2025-12-31T15:59:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a90e19ea", "title": "I have a horrible feeling sometimes that heavily promoted crap research on space aliens, cold showers, mind-body healing, schoolyard evolutionary psychology, extra-sensory perception, magic golf balls, air rage, himmicanes, subliminal smiley faces, etc etc etc, has softened the ground so that the seeds of more evil trees could then be planted and take root.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/31/h/", "published_at": "2025-12-31T14:34:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6a93f053b", "title": "Survey Statistics: more adventures in mismeasured X", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/30/survey-statistics-more-adventures-in-mismeasured-x/", "published_at": "2025-12-30T21:00:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6aa3c8a90", "title": "A funny mismatch between the level of the course and what the instructor is doing on the blackboard", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/30/a-funny-mismatch-between-the-level-of-the-course-and-what-the-instructor-is-doing-on-the-blackboard/", "published_at": "2025-12-30T14:04:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6aabdfc69", "title": "How the covid vaccine almost killed me", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/29/how-the-covid-vaccine-almost-killed-me/", "published_at": "2025-12-29T14:23:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6ab62922f", "title": "Looking at the Port Huron Statement, 63 years later", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/28/looking-at-the-port-huron-statement-63-years-later/", "published_at": "2025-12-28T14:14:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6abc54bf5", "title": "“No one could suspect that times were coming . . . when the man who did not gamble would lose all the time, even more surely than he who gambled.”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/27/no-one-could-suspect-that-times-were-coming-when-the-man-who-did-not-gamble-would-lose-all-the-time-even-more-surely-than-he-who-gambled/", "published_at": "2025-12-27T14:57:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6acc5227a", "title": "How much of an NBA team’s won-loss record is from skill and how much is luck?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/26/how-much-of-an-nba-teams-won-loss-record-is-from-skill-and-how-much-is-luck/", "published_at": "2025-12-26T14:44:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6ad5ee896", "title": "If only Lee Bollinger", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/25/if-only-lee-bollinger/", "published_at": "2025-12-25T14:16:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6ae0d56da", "title": "Slop is not distinguishable by its attributes. It is an attitude of production", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/24/slop-is-not-distinguishable-by-its-attributes-it-is-an-attitude-of-production/", "published_at": "2025-12-24T18:54:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6aeda9fa4", "title": "Holiday open thread: Correct me! Point out all my mistakes.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/24/holiday-open-thread-correct-me-point-out-all-my-mistakes/", "published_at": "2025-12-24T14:01:55+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6afc01dec", "title": "Survey Statistics: is a mismeasured X better than none at all ?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/23/survey-statistics-is-a-mismeasured-x-better-than-none-at-all/", "published_at": "2025-12-23T22:42:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b02b211b", "title": "The problems with popular internet heuristics such as “Hanlon’s razor,” “steelmanning,” and “Godwin’s law,” all of which kind of fall apart in the presence of actual malice, actual bad ideas, and actual Nazis.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/23/the-problems-with-popular-internet-heuristics-such-as-hanlons-razor-steelmanning-and-godwins-law-all-of-which-kind-of-fall-ap/", "published_at": "2025-12-23T14:38:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b05577b9", "title": "Postdoc opportunity at Stanford and Chicago on Bayesian hierarchical modeling and partial pooling for improving the accuracy and equity of property tax assessments", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/22/postdoc-opportunity-at-stanford-and-chicago-on-bayesian-hierarchical-modeling-and-partial-pooling-for-improving-the-accuracy-and-equity-of-property-tax-assessments/", "published_at": "2025-12-22T21:11:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b11198e9", "title": "Who else is in the goddam dictionary?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/22/who-else-is-in-the-goddam-dictionary/", "published_at": "2025-12-22T14:22:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b128daba", "title": "“I think there’s an argument to be made that much meta-scientific work is a kind of mirror image of the empirical work it critiques”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/21/i-think-theres-an-argument-to-be-made-that-much-meta-scientific-work-is-a-kind-of-mirror-image-of-the-empirical-work-it-critiques/", "published_at": "2025-12-21T14:15:32+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b17ecb5f", "title": "Hey, I’m in the dictionary (too!)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/20/hey-im-in-the-dictionary-too/", "published_at": "2025-12-21T02:57:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b1e35ffb", "title": "Hey, I’m in the dictionary!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/20/hey-im-in-the-dictionary/", "published_at": "2025-12-20T14:31:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b2a8d7ab", "title": "Validating language models as study participants: How it’s being done, why it fails, and what works instead", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/19/validating-language-models-as-study-participants-how-its-being-done-why-it-fails-and-what-works-instead/", "published_at": "2025-12-19T16:57:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b322e71a", "title": "What’s your Jordan3 number?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/19/whats-your-jordan3-number/", "published_at": "2025-12-19T14:43:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b38237b4", "title": "Everything I need to know I learned in Little League", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/18/everything-i-need-to-know-i-learned-in-little-league/", "published_at": "2025-12-18T20:00:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b3b5f200", "title": "“Re-examination of the 3/4-law of metabolism” and “Toward a metabolic theory of ecology”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/18/re-examination-of-the-3-4-law-of-metabolism/", "published_at": "2025-12-18T14:37:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b47537a9", "title": "We may live in a state of prosecutorial overcorrection, but I think it’s a dialectical response to the fact that the default position for a certain kind of celebrity scientist has usually been ferocious, uncritical defense.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/17/we-may-live-in-a-state-of-prosecutorial-overcorrection-but-i-think-its-a-dialectical-response-to-the-fact-that-the-default-position-for-a-certain-kind-of-celebrity-scientist-has-usually-been-feroci/", "published_at": "2025-12-17T14:35:26+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b49c90d9", "title": "Survey Statistics: 3rd helpings of the logit shift", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/16/survey-statistics-3rd-helpings-of-the-logit-shift/", "published_at": "2025-12-16T21:00:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b58cb740", "title": "Annals of idiot spam", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/16/annals-of-idiot-spam/", "published_at": "2025-12-16T14:51:13+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b6496901", "title": "Simulating from and checking a model in Stan: It’s so easy in Stan Playground–it just runs on your browser!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/15/simulating-from-and-checking-a-model-in-stan/", "published_at": "2025-12-15T21:34:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b6bb744d", "title": "Who is the most famous living person who was born on each continent?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/15/who-is-the-most-famous-living-person-who-was-born-on-each-continent/", "published_at": "2025-12-15T14:05:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b75819c8", "title": "Combining a high-quality probability sample with data from larger online panels", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/14/combining-a-high-quality-probability-sample-with-data-from-larger-online-panels/", "published_at": "2025-12-14T14:33:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b7dc77a1", "title": "The cathedral, the bazaar, and statistical workflow", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/13/the-cathedral-the-bazaar-and-statistical-workflow/", "published_at": "2025-12-13T14:13:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b8299819", "title": "If you’re interested in the Box-Cox power transformation . . .", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/12/if-youre-interested-in-the-box-cox-power-transformation/", "published_at": "2025-12-12T14:18:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b86b13a6", "title": "Seven-parameter drift-diffusion pdfs and cdfs now in Stan", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/seven-parameter-drift-diffusion-pdfs-and-cdfs-now-in-stan/", "published_at": "2025-12-11T20:00:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b8b783d1", "title": "A slew of improvements to NUTS", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/a-slew-of-improvements-to-nuts/", "published_at": "2025-12-11T20:00:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6b9b488e3", "title": "“We conclude that apparent effects of growth mindset interventions on academic achievement are likely attributable to inadequate study design, reporting flaws, and bias.”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/we-conclude-that-apparent-effects-of-growth-mindset-interventions-on-academic-achievement-are-likely-attributable-to-inadequate-study-design-reporting-flaws-and-bias/", "published_at": "2025-12-11T14:18:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bab2a1be", "title": "StanCon 2026 registration and abstract submission are now open", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/stancon-2026-registration-and-abstract-submission-are-now-open/", "published_at": "2025-12-11T13:09:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bb08ecb6", "title": "25,000 lives saved per ship sunk, $100,000 per citation, a probability of 10^-90 of a decisive vote . . . Is there a through line from B.S. numbers in junk science to B.S. numbers coming from the government?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/10/is-there-a-through-line-from-b-s-numbers-in-junk-science-to-b-s-numbers-coming-from-the-government/", "published_at": "2025-12-10T14:01:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bb6d65cd", "title": "Survey Statistics: divine probabilities", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/09/survey-statistics-divine-probabilities/", "published_at": "2025-12-09T21:00:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bc34ddd2", "title": "“it has been argued that current chatbots may pose a risk of amplifying delusional thinking in vulnerable users, due to their tendency to sycophantic and overly validating behaviour”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/09/it-has-been-argued-that-current-chatbots-may-pose-a-risk-of-amplifying-delusional-thinking-in-vulnerable-users-due-to-their-tendency-to-sycophantic-and-overly-validating-behaviour/", "published_at": "2025-12-09T17:29:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bc672f77", "title": "More on school reform, this time New Orleans", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/09/more-on-school-reform-this-time-new-orleans/", "published_at": "2025-12-09T14:22:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bcca84f4", "title": "My new class this spring: POLS 4280, Rationalizing the World: The Hopes and Disappointments of American Social Science from 1900 to the Present", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/08/my-new-class-this-spring-pols-4280-rationalizing-the-world-the-hopes-and-disappointments-of-american-social-science-from-1900-to-the-present/", "published_at": "2025-12-08T14:04:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-1bd3-7078-b21a-4ea6bd2b067e", "title": "The life of the artist “is a constant–and constantly losing–battle to keep at bay, on one side, the permanent shortfall of physical and mental abilities in the context of the perfection that art strives to be, and, on the other side, the inevitable arrival of silence and death.”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/07/life/", "published_at": "2025-12-07T14:50:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe0b776b5", "title": "This guy hates sociology.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/06/this-guy-hates-sociology/", "published_at": "2025-12-06T23:39:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe18d7b55", "title": "An idea for getting approximately calibrated 50% subjective probability ranges", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/06/an-idea-for-getting-approximately-calibrated-50-subjective-probability-ranges/", "published_at": "2025-12-06T14:24:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe225eaa6", "title": "The Sapolsky Sanction", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/05/the-sapolsky-sanction/", "published_at": "2025-12-05T14:07:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe26cde22", "title": "When the numbers don’t look right, check them! (Mississippi education update)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/04/when-the-numbers-dont-look-right-check-them-mississippi-education-update/", "published_at": "2025-12-04T20:53:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe35bdd07", "title": "From Bayesian inference to LLMs (Steve Bronder’s 2025 CppCon talk)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/04/from-bayesian-inference-to-llms-steve-bronders-2025-cppcon-talk/", "published_at": "2025-12-04T17:15:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe364d036", "title": "Gerd Gigerenzer on the legacy of Daniel Kahneman", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/03/gerd-gigerenzer-on-the-legacy-of-daniel-kahneman/", "published_at": "2025-12-03T14:44:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe4399ee7", "title": "Survey Statistics: probability samples vs epsem samples vs SRS samples", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/02/survey-statistics-probability-samples-vs-epsem-samples-vs-srs-samples/", "published_at": "2025-12-02T21:00:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe52dcd37", "title": "Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein in a remake of The Big Clock", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/02/the-big-clock-and-jeffrey-epstein/", "published_at": "2025-12-02T14:57:31+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe56c7c0b", "title": "Effective sample size depends on the quantity", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/02/effective-sample-size-depends-on-the-quantity/", "published_at": "2025-12-02T09:33:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe5d3c73c", "title": "How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/01/how-much-of-mississippis-education-miracle-is-an-artifact-of-selection-bias/", "published_at": "2025-12-01T14:27:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe68a07a6", "title": "Sermet Pekin’s open-source project that discovers blogs through recursive network exploration", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/30/sermet-pekins-open-source-project-that-discovers-blogs-through-recursive-network-exploration/", "published_at": "2025-11-30T14:36:28+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe691f82c", "title": "What’s it like to be the child of a white-collar criminal?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/29/whats-it-like-to-be-the-child-of-a-white-collar-criminal/", "published_at": "2025-11-29T14:20:10+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe694e63d", "title": "Flagging when the prior distribution is informative", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/28/heres-an-idea-for-not-getting-tripped-up-with-default-priors-2/", "published_at": "2025-11-28T14:34:06+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe6f7d867", "title": "Larry Summers, Ken Starr, Jeffrey Epstein, and everyone else", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/27/larry-summers-ken-starr-jeffrey-epstein-and-everyone-else/", "published_at": "2025-11-27T14:44:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe73ce018", "title": "Effective sample size", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/27/effective-sample-size/", "published_at": "2025-11-27T11:50:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe75e47ed", "title": "The three funniest items on the Kroger recall list", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/26/kroger-recall-update-full-list-of-product-warnings-across-18-states/", "published_at": "2025-11-26T23:47:26+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe7f93800", "title": "The purpose of science vs. the purpose of scientists", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/26/the-purpose-of-science-vs-the-purpose-of-scientists/", "published_at": "2025-11-26T14:55:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe8332a64", "title": "Survey Statistics: quantity vs quality", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/25/survey-statistics-quantity-vs-quality/", "published_at": "2025-11-25T21:48:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe9007a9c", "title": "Problems with the so-called gender equality paradox", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/25/problems-with-the-so-called-gender-equality-paradox/", "published_at": "2025-11-25T14:49:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fe9e947d5", "title": "Some thoughts on empirical distributions of z-scores", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/24/some-thoughts-on-empirical-distributions-of-z-scores/", "published_at": "2025-11-24T14:36:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fea6d117b", "title": "Who has the lowest Erdos-Bacon-Epstein number?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/23/who-has-the-lowest-erdos-bacon-epstein-number/", "published_at": "2025-11-23T20:21:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fead48f5a", "title": "The signal-to-noise ratio in statistics", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/23/the-signal-to-noise-ratio-in-statistics/", "published_at": "2025-11-23T14:15:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748feb304e24", "title": "“The Limits of Ethical AI”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/22/the-limits-of-ethical-ai/", "published_at": "2025-11-22T14:25:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748feb346a4f", "title": "Who wants no kid vax law?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/21/who-wants-no-kid-vax-law/", "published_at": "2025-11-22T00:44:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748feb7e32f9", "title": "“What do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two different statistical measurement challenges arise from this one question on the General Social Survey.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/21/what-do-you-think-is-the-ideal-number-of-children-for-a-family-to-have-two-different-statistical-measurement-challenges-arise-from-this-one-question-on-the-general-social-survey/", "published_at": "2025-11-21T14:38:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748feb87ee45", "title": "Three meta-principles of statistics: the information principle, the methodological attribution problem, and different applications demand different philosophies", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/20/three-meta-principles-of-statistics-the-information-principle-the-methodological-attribution-problem-and-different-applications-demand-different-philosophies/", "published_at": "2025-11-20T14:33:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fec185244", "title": "StatRetro: The twitter feed that spits out our old blog posts, one at a time, every 8 hours", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/19/statretro-the-twitter-feed-that-spits-out-our-old-blog-posts-one-at-a-time-every-8-hours/", "published_at": "2025-11-20T00:34:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fecbb7817", "title": "This guy’s mad about fake research, and he should be. Research incompetence, research fraud, and the promotion of fraudulent or incompetent work . . . these are not victimless crimes.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/19/this-guys-mad-about-fake-research-and-he-should-be-research-incompetence-research-fraud-and-the-promotion-of-fraudulent-or-incompetent-work-these-are-not-victimless-crimes/", "published_at": "2025-11-19T14:37:06+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fecdf0228", "title": "Survey Statistics: sampling the sample", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/18/survey-statistics-sampling-the-sample/", "published_at": "2025-11-18T21:00:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fedd08f2e", "title": "Under what sort of systematic reporting errors will science be self-correcting, or not? And do gardening programs reduce obesity?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/18/under-what-sort-of-systematic-reporting-errors-will-science-be-self-correcting-or-not-and-do-gardening-programs-reduce-obesity/", "published_at": "2025-11-18T14:07:13+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748feeceb8d5", "title": "The Aristocrats! (Found poetry in the email archive)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/17/the-aristocrats/", "published_at": "2025-11-17T23:21:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fef4cddab", "title": "A Borgesian blog idea (and nothing to do with forking paths)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/17/a-borgesian-blog-idea-and-nothing-to-do-with-forking-paths/", "published_at": "2025-11-17T14:52:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748fef793640", "title": "Sociology of science: What does it take for erroneous or fraudulent claims to take hold?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/16/sociology-of-science-what-does-it-take-for-erroneous-or-fraudulent-claims-to-take-hold/", "published_at": "2025-11-16T14:55:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748feff5e36a", "title": "The density of fraud", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/15/the-density-of-fraud/", "published_at": "2025-11-15T14:20:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748ff0ac62d8", "title": "The fifth anniversary of a viral histogram", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/14/the-fifth-anniversary-of-a-viral-histogram/", "published_at": "2025-11-14T18:58:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748ff1a5d897", "title": "How is it that this problem, with its 21 data points, is so much easier to handle with 1 predictor than with 16 predictors?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/14/how-is-it-that-this-problem-with-its-21-data-points-is-so-much-easier-to-handle-with-1-predictor-than-with-16-predictors/", "published_at": "2025-11-14T14:58:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748ff27bc6fc", "title": "The Democrats were lucky that the election was last week and not next week.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/the-democrats-were-lucky-that-the-election-was-last-week-and-not-next-week/", "published_at": "2025-11-14T02:00:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748ff35b6310", "title": "The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/the-value-of-close-reading-larry-summers-edition/", "published_at": "2025-11-13T14:05:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d246-fd55-73e8-b8fb-748ff4321735", "title": "Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesn’t know the actual facts.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/noted-economist-likes-to-talk-about-demographics-but-he-doesnt-know-the-actual-facts/", "published_at": "2025-11-12T23:21:28+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog

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Andrew Gelman

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

2026

1 quick tip to improving student participation in your class (motivated by a principle in poker)original ↗

14 Jan 2026

Survey Statistics: Margin of Error original ↗

13 Jan 2026

A better way to fill in those missing bubbles in the standardized test original ↗

13 Jan 2026

What’s the essence of blogging?original ↗

12 Jan 2026

The Mets are hiring original ↗

11 Jan 2026

“The Great Believers” by Rebecca Makkai original ↗

11 Jan 2026

Concerns about the z-curve method original ↗

10 Jan 2026

My general advice if you’re stuck on a problem understanding a model you’ve fit to data original ↗

10 Jan 2026

This one’s for the blimp original ↗

10 Jan 2026

8 arguments against polling (some are good arguments, some are bad)original ↗

9 Jan 2026

The soft bigotry of low expectations original ↗

9 Jan 2026

What is “workflow” and why is it important?original ↗

8 Jan 2026

It’s open season on the unabashedly earnest original ↗

7 Jan 2026

Uh oh prediction markets original ↗

7 Jan 2026

Survey Statistics: 4th helpings of the logit shift original ↗

6 Jan 2026

The stories behind our published research from last year original ↗

6 Jan 2026

Last post on the estimated effects of Mississippi school reforms original ↗

5 Jan 2026

When in doubt (in teaching and in research) do a simulation on the computer.original ↗

4 Jan 2026

The combination of originality, ambition, and lack of scruple can take you far in social science.original ↗

3 Jan 2026

Barnard College president promotes free expression, does not comment on recent anti-free-expression policies at the college original ↗

2 Jan 2026

Pinning the group-level variance parameters to speed computation for hierarchical models original ↗

1 Jan 2026

2025

What we can remember (the vagaries of literary fame)original ↗

31 Dec 2025

I have a horrible feeling sometimes that heavily promoted crap research on space aliens, cold showers, mind-body healing, schoolyard evolutionary psychology, extra-sensory perception, magic golf balls, air rage, himmicanes, subliminal smiley faces, etc etc etc, has softened the ground so that the seeds of more evil trees could then be planted and take root.original ↗

31 Dec 2025

Survey Statistics: more adventures in mismeasured X original ↗

30 Dec 2025

A funny mismatch between the level of the course and what the instructor is doing on the blackboard original ↗

30 Dec 2025

How the covid vaccine almost killed me original ↗

29 Dec 2025

Looking at the Port Huron Statement, 63 years later original ↗

28 Dec 2025

“No one could suspect that times were coming . . . when the man who did not gamble would lose all the time, even more surely than he who gambled.”original ↗

27 Dec 2025

How much of an NBA team’s won-loss record is from skill and how much is luck?original ↗

26 Dec 2025

If only Lee Bollinger original ↗

25 Dec 2025

Slop is not distinguishable by its attributes. It is an attitude of production original ↗

24 Dec 2025

Holiday open thread: Correct me! Point out all my mistakes.original ↗

24 Dec 2025

Survey Statistics: is a mismeasured X better than none at all ?original ↗

23 Dec 2025

The problems with popular internet heuristics such as “Hanlon’s razor,” “steelmanning,” and “Godwin’s law,” all of which kind of fall apart in the presence of actual malice, actual bad ideas, and actual Nazis.original ↗

23 Dec 2025

Postdoc opportunity at Stanford and Chicago on Bayesian hierarchical modeling and partial pooling for improving the accuracy and equity of property tax assessments original ↗

22 Dec 2025

Who else is in the goddam dictionary?original ↗

22 Dec 2025

“I think there’s an argument to be made that much meta-scientific work is a kind of mirror image of the empirical work it critiques”original ↗

21 Dec 2025

Hey, I’m in the dictionary (too!)original ↗

21 Dec 2025

Hey, I’m in the dictionary!original ↗

20 Dec 2025

Validating language models as study participants: How it’s being done, why it fails, and what works instead original ↗

19 Dec 2025

What’s your Jordan3 number?original ↗

19 Dec 2025

Everything I need to know I learned in Little League original ↗

18 Dec 2025

“Re-examination of the 3/4-law of metabolism” and “Toward a metabolic theory of ecology”original ↗

18 Dec 2025

We may live in a state of prosecutorial overcorrection, but I think it’s a dialectical response to the fact that the default position for a certain kind of celebrity scientist has usually been ferocious, uncritical defense.original ↗

17 Dec 2025

Survey Statistics: 3rd helpings of the logit shift original ↗

16 Dec 2025

Annals of idiot spam original ↗

16 Dec 2025

Simulating from and checking a model in Stan: It’s so easy in Stan Playground–it just runs on your browser!original ↗

15 Dec 2025

Who is the most famous living person who was born on each continent?original ↗

15 Dec 2025

Combining a high-quality probability sample with data from larger online panels original ↗

14 Dec 2025

The cathedral, the bazaar, and statistical workflow original ↗

13 Dec 2025

If you’re interested in the Box-Cox power transformation . . .original ↗

12 Dec 2025

Seven-parameter drift-diffusion pdfs and cdfs now in Stan original ↗

11 Dec 2025

A slew of improvements to NUTS original ↗

11 Dec 2025

“We conclude that apparent effects of growth mindset interventions on academic achievement are likely attributable to inadequate study design, reporting flaws, and bias.”original ↗

11 Dec 2025

StanCon 2026 registration and abstract submission are now open original ↗

11 Dec 2025

25,000 lives saved per ship sunk, $100,000 per citation, a probability of 10^-90 of a decisive vote . . . Is there a through line from B.S. numbers in junk science to B.S. numbers coming from the government?original ↗

10 Dec 2025

Survey Statistics: divine probabilities original ↗

9 Dec 2025

“it has been argued that current chatbots may pose a risk of amplifying delusional thinking in vulnerable users, due to their tendency to sycophantic and overly validating behaviour”original ↗

9 Dec 2025

More on school reform, this time New Orleans original ↗

9 Dec 2025

My new class this spring: POLS 4280, Rationalizing the World: The Hopes and Disappointments of American Social Science from 1900 to the Present original ↗

8 Dec 2025

The life of the artist “is a constant–and constantly losing–battle to keep at bay, on one side, the permanent shortfall of physical and mental abilities in the context of the perfection that art strives to be, and, on the other side, the inevitable arrival of silence and death.”original ↗

7 Dec 2025

This guy hates sociology.original ↗

6 Dec 2025

An idea for getting approximately calibrated 50% subjective probability ranges original ↗

6 Dec 2025

The Sapolsky Sanction original ↗

5 Dec 2025

When the numbers don’t look right, check them! (Mississippi education update)original ↗

4 Dec 2025

From Bayesian inference to LLMs (Steve Bronder’s 2025 CppCon talk)original ↗

4 Dec 2025

Gerd Gigerenzer on the legacy of Daniel Kahneman original ↗

3 Dec 2025

Survey Statistics: probability samples vs epsem samples vs SRS samples original ↗

2 Dec 2025

Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein in a remake of The Big Clock original ↗

2 Dec 2025

Effective sample size depends on the quantity original ↗

2 Dec 2025

How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias?original ↗

1 Dec 2025

Sermet Pekin’s open-source project that discovers blogs through recursive network exploration original ↗

30 Nov 2025

What’s it like to be the child of a white-collar criminal?original ↗

29 Nov 2025

Flagging when the prior distribution is informative original ↗

28 Nov 2025

Larry Summers, Ken Starr, Jeffrey Epstein, and everyone else original ↗

27 Nov 2025

Effective sample size original ↗

27 Nov 2025

The three funniest items on the Kroger recall list original ↗

26 Nov 2025

The purpose of science vs. the purpose of scientists original ↗

26 Nov 2025

Survey Statistics: quantity vs quality original ↗

25 Nov 2025

Problems with the so-called gender equality paradox original ↗

25 Nov 2025

Some thoughts on empirical distributions of z-scores original ↗

24 Nov 2025

Who has the lowest Erdos-Bacon-Epstein number?original ↗

23 Nov 2025

The signal-to-noise ratio in statistics original ↗

23 Nov 2025

“The Limits of Ethical AI”original ↗

22 Nov 2025

Who wants no kid vax law?original ↗

22 Nov 2025

“What do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two different statistical measurement challenges arise from this one question on the General Social Survey.original ↗

21 Nov 2025

Three meta-principles of statistics: the information principle, the methodological attribution problem, and different applications demand different philosophies original ↗

20 Nov 2025

StatRetro: The twitter feed that spits out our old blog posts, one at a time, every 8 hours original ↗

20 Nov 2025

This guy’s mad about fake research, and he should be. Research incompetence, research fraud, and the promotion of fraudulent or incompetent work . . . these are not victimless crimes.original ↗

19 Nov 2025

Survey Statistics: sampling the sample original ↗

18 Nov 2025

Under what sort of systematic reporting errors will science be self-correcting, or not? And do gardening programs reduce obesity?original ↗

18 Nov 2025

The Aristocrats! (Found poetry in the email archive)original ↗

17 Nov 2025

A Borgesian blog idea (and nothing to do with forking paths)original ↗

17 Nov 2025

Sociology of science: What does it take for erroneous or fraudulent claims to take hold?original ↗

16 Nov 2025

The density of fraud original ↗

15 Nov 2025

The fifth anniversary of a viral histogram original ↗

14 Nov 2025

How is it that this problem, with its 21 data points, is so much easier to handle with 1 predictor than with 16 predictors?original ↗

14 Nov 2025

The Democrats were lucky that the election was last week and not next week.original ↗

14 Nov 2025

The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition original ↗

13 Nov 2025

Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesn’t know the actual facts.original ↗

12 Nov 2025