Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2025
“Belief in the law of small numbers” as a way to understand the continuing appeal of junk scienceoriginal ↗
12 Nov 2025
From the three branches of government to the bidirectional nature of legal reasoning in a way that is similar to how statistics works, and should work, in the real worldoriginal ↗
11 Nov 2025
Conflicting statistical evidence on the long-term effects of children on being whacked by their parentsoriginal ↗
7 Nov 2025
5 Nov 2025
The Office of Risk Assessment at the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Authority is looking for an applied statistician with expertise in Bayesian statistics or causal inferenceoriginal ↗
3 Nov 2025
3 Nov 2025
An economist reports that the cost data from Medicare are “completely irrelevant. It is clearly measures of net costs that matter, but only gross costs (analogous to sticker prices) are provided. Similar issues arise with recent requirements for hospital price transparency.”original ↗
2 Nov 2025
Hilarious Ted Talk bio: “he sold the second most expensive picture at his first exhibition — without really being able to paint.”original ↗
1 Nov 2025
Studying sex ratios is just a lot harder than you think: effects are tiny and variation is large.original ↗
31 Oct 2025
The WAR war and the electoral benefits of running more moderate candidates for political officeoriginal ↗
29 Oct 2025
No, this is not “the most unpredictable race for mayor that New York City has seen in decades”original ↗
28 Oct 2025
27 Oct 2025
23 Oct 2025
Here’s a statistics research project for you: Is the skewness of the distribution of the empirical correlation coefficient asymptotically proportional to the correlation?original ↗
22 Oct 2025
Reanalysis of that Nobel prizewinning study of patents and innovation (with R and Stan code)original ↗
21 Oct 2025
Bayesian probability, like frequentist probability, is a model-based activity that is mathematically anchored by physical randomization at one end and calibration to a reference set at the otheroriginal ↗
20 Oct 2025
Aversive statistical methods explain differences in “dark” publication in PNAS across subject areasoriginal ↗
19 Oct 2025
18 Oct 2025
17 Oct 2025
Generalizing Treatment Effects from Trials to EHR Populations (Qixuan Chen’s talk this Tues morning)original ↗
16 Oct 2025
“All Our Default Models Are Wrong: Causal inference for varying treatment effects”: my talk this Saturday morning in Ottawaoriginal ↗
16 Oct 2025
Questions about statistical claims in paper from recent Nobel prize winners; some general challenges in trying understand nonlinear patterns using quadratic regressionoriginal ↗
15 Oct 2025
14 Oct 2025
14 Oct 2025
13 Oct 2025
Columbia fake U.S. News statistics update: They paid $9 million and are still, bizarrely, refusing to admit misreporting of data, even though everybody knows they misreported data.original ↗
10 Oct 2025
6 Oct 2025
4 Oct 2025
“It’s horrible that they’re sucking young researchers into this vortex. It’s Gigo and Gresham all the way down.”original ↗
2 Oct 2025
30 Sept 2025
Game theory corner: did Eric Adams play his hand well? (It’s a little like Murder on the Orient Express, it’s a little like The Sting.)original ↗
29 Sept 2025
28 Sept 2025
In music, literature, and technical writing, the relation of large-scale structure to the local actionoriginal ↗
27 Sept 2025
25 Sept 2025
23 Sept 2025
23 Sept 2025
20 Sept 2025
When thinking about causal inference, mechanistic or process models are important. I think that the association of “causal” with black-box models leads to lots of problems.original ↗
19 Sept 2025
18 Sept 2025
18 Sept 2025
Princeton Consumer Research reports a 93.94% success rate . . . not quite as good as Harvard, which gets you to “statistically indistinguishable from 100%”!original ↗
15 Sept 2025
Helen DeWitt says, “programming occupies a place similar to that of literacy in mediaeval England.”original ↗
14 Sept 2025
13 Sept 2025