Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2020
15 Sept 2020
Election forecasts: The math, the goals, and the incentives (my talk this Friday afternoon at Cornell University)original ↗
14 Sept 2020
“Figure 1 looks like random variation to me” . . . indeed, so it does. And Figure 2 as well! But statistical significance was found, so this bit of randomness was published in a top journal. Business as usual in the statistical-industrial complex. Still, I’d hope the BMJ could’ve done better.original ↗
14 Sept 2020
13 Sept 2020
12 Sept 2020
11 Sept 2020
Why we kept the trig in golf: Mathematical simplicity is not always the same as conceptual simplicityoriginal ↗
10 Sept 2020
Here’s a question for the historians of science out there: How modern is the idea of a scientific “anomaly”?original ↗
6 Sept 2020
5 Sept 2020
Econ grad student asks, “why is the government paying us money, instead of just firing us all?”original ↗
4 Sept 2020
From monthly return rate to importance sampling to path sampling to the second law of thermodynamics to metastable sampling in Stanoriginal ↗
2 Sept 2020
2 Sept 2020
Post-stratified longitudinal item response model for trust in state institutions in Europeoriginal ↗
2 Sept 2020
1 Sept 2020
1 Sept 2020
More on that Fivethirtyeight prediction that Biden might only get 42% of the vote in Floridaoriginal ↗
31 Aug 2020
An example of a parallel dot plot: a great way to display many properties of a list of itemsoriginal ↗
30 Aug 2020
28 Aug 2020
28 Aug 2020
26 Aug 2020
Rob Kass: “The truth of a theory is contingent on both our state of knowledge and the purposes to which it will be put.”original ↗
25 Aug 2020
24 Aug 2020
23 Aug 2020
22 Aug 2020
21 Aug 2020
21 Aug 2020
20 Aug 2020
Their findings don’t replicate, but they refuse to admit they might’ve messed up. (We’ve seen this movie before.)original ↗
20 Aug 2020
Some possibly different experiences of being a statistician working with an international collaborative research group like OHDSI.original ↗
19 Aug 2020
“I just wanted to say that for the first time in three (4!?) years of efforts, I have a way to estimate my model. . . .”original ↗
19 Aug 2020
Some thoughts inspired by Lee Cronbach (1975), “Beyond the two disciplines of scientific psychology”original ↗
16 Aug 2020
How much of public health work “involves not technology but methodicalness and record keeping”?original ↗
15 Aug 2020
Thomas Basbøll will like this post (analogy between common—indeed, inevitable—mistakes in drawing, and inevitable mistakes in statistical reasoning).original ↗
13 Aug 2020
12 Aug 2020
12 Aug 2020
This is your chance to comment on the U.S. government’s review of evidence on the effectiveness of home visiting. Comments are due by 1 Sept.original ↗
12 Aug 2020
12 Aug 2020
That “not a real doctor” thing . . . It’s kind of silly for people to think that going to medical school for a few years will give you the skills necessary to be able to evaluate research claims in medicine or anything else.original ↗
11 Aug 2020
The U.S. high school math olympiad champions of the 1970s and 1980s: Where were they then?original ↗
10 Aug 2020
8 Aug 2020
8 Aug 2020
Don’t say your data “reveal quantum nature of human judgments.” Be precise and say your data are “consistent with a quantum-inspired model of survey responses.” Yes, then your paper might not appear in PNAS, but you’ll feel better about yourself in the morning.original ↗
7 Aug 2020
Somethings do not seem to spread easily – the role of simulation in statistical practice and perhaps theory.original ↗
5 Aug 2020
5 Aug 2020
5 Aug 2020
“Statistical Models of Election Outcomes”: My talk this evening at the University of Michiganoriginal ↗
4 Aug 2020
4 Aug 2020
“100 Stories of Causal Inference”: My talk tomorrow at the Online Causal Inference Seminaroriginal ↗
3 Aug 2020
Getting negative about the critical positivity ratio: when you talk about throwing out the bathwater, really throw out the bathwater! Don’t try to pretend it has some value. Give it up. Let it go. You can do this and still hold on to the baby at the same time!original ↗
3 Aug 2020
1 Aug 2020
The flashy crooks get the headlines, but the bigger problem is everyday routine bad science done by non-crooksoriginal ↗
29 Jul 2020
BMJ FAIL: The system is broken. (Some reflections on bad research, scientism, the importance of description, and the challenge of negativity)original ↗
28 Jul 2020
“Which, in your personal judgment, is worse, if you could only choose ONE? — (a) A homosexual (b) A doctor who refuses to make a house call to someone seriously ill?”original ↗
27 Jul 2020
26 Jul 2020
“No one is going to force you to write badly. In the long run, you won’t even be rewarded for it. But, unfortunately, it is true that they’ll often let you get away with it.”original ↗
25 Jul 2020
24 Jul 2020
24 Jul 2020
The importance of descriptive social science and its relation to causal inference and substantive theoriesoriginal ↗
23 Jul 2020
21 Jul 2020
My talk this Wed 7:30pm (NY time) / Thurs 9:30am (Australian time) at the Victorian Centre for Biostatisticsoriginal ↗
20 Jul 2020
19 Jul 2020