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2026

The likely outcome of an AI pause is that we unpause too early and everyone diesoriginal ↗
28 Sept 2026
Campaign spending limits would reduce extinction risk (but spending limits might not accord with Constitutional principles)original ↗
21 Sept 2026
Results from the Population Ethics Quizoriginal ↗
14 Sept 2026
Some things I wrote in my journal that might be fit for public consumptionoriginal ↗
7 Sept 2026
Population ethics is a big deal, which is why I made this population ethics quizoriginal ↗
31 Aug 2026
Don't Treat AI's Skillset as Staticoriginal ↗
24 Aug 2026
Reasons to Act on Your Best Guess: A Reply to the Challenge of Unawarenessoriginal ↗
17 Aug 2026
On Democratizing ASI to Preserve Civil Libertiesoriginal ↗
10 Aug 2026
Links for Augustoriginal ↗
3 Aug 2026
Notes on the possibility of moral progressoriginal ↗
27 Jul 2026
Letting myself look foolishoriginal ↗
20 Jul 2026
Pausing AI at human level seems harder than pausing ASAPoriginal ↗
13 Jul 2026
Training AI to be better at correctness than persuasionoriginal ↗
6 Jul 2026
AI will make biological extinction risks worse before it makes them betteroriginal ↗
29 Jun 2026
Compare Your Company Stock to a Leveraged Index Fundoriginal ↗
22 Jun 2026
A frontier AI company should shut downoriginal ↗
15 Jun 2026
Science-driven stories are good for the same reason that character-driven stories are goodoriginal ↗
13 Jun 2026
How valuable are weak AI safety regulations?original ↗
8 Jun 2026
We Need Breadth-First AI Safety Plansoriginal ↗
1 Jun 2026
Sentient Welfare Across Three Futuresoriginal ↗
25 May 2026
I sleep less when I exercise moreoriginal ↗
18 May 2026
Donation Timing Under Uncertainty About AI Timelinesoriginal ↗
11 May 2026
Thoughts on investing for transformative AIoriginal ↗
4 May 2026
I'm extremely worried that superintelligent AI will kill everyoneoriginal ↗
27 Apr 2026
I was wrong: concentrated factor portfolios don't have alphaoriginal ↗
20 Apr 2026
Can AI make advancements in moral philosophy by writing proofs?original ↗
13 Apr 2026
Pausing AI Is the Best Answer to Post-Alignment Problemsoriginal ↗
11 Apr 2026
By Strong Default, ASI Will End Liberal Democracyoriginal ↗
6 Apr 2026
The Future Will Be Weirder Than Thatoriginal ↗
29 Mar 2026
Which is better for sentient beings: an "ethical" AI or a corrigible AI?original ↗
28 Mar 2026
The resource-constraints argument for why aligned ASI wouldn't be bad for animalsoriginal ↗
27 Mar 2026
List of ideas for improving animal welfare in light of transformative AIoriginal ↗
26 Mar 2026
I used to think aligned ASI would be good for all sentient beings; now I don't know what to thinkoriginal ↗
25 Mar 2026
Cost-effectiveness model for AI alignment-to-animals vs. alignment-in-generaloriginal ↗
24 Mar 2026
Which types of AI alignment research are most likely to be good for all sentient beings?original ↗
23 Mar 2026
Worlds where we solve AI alignment on purpose don't look like the world we live inoriginal ↗
20 Mar 2026
Value Investing in the Age of AGIoriginal ↗
11 Mar 2026
The Structural Return Argument Against Value Investingoriginal ↗
2 Mar 2026
Contra "Time Series Momentum: Is It There?"original ↗
4 Feb 2026
If AI alignment is only as hard as building the steam engine, then we likely still dieoriginal ↗
10 Jan 2026

2025

I'm wary of increasing government expertise on AIoriginal ↗
21 Dec 2025
Rest in Peace Commento; Long Live Comentariooriginal ↗
12 Dec 2025
I need the Writing Style Guide people to figure out how to put a smiley face inside parenthesesoriginal ↗
11 Dec 2025
I did Inkhavenoriginal ↗
30 Nov 2025
How do I know if I'm dreaming?original ↗
29 Nov 2025
Prioritizing your objectives is better than grazing past them accidentallyoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
My Carlin-esque list of pet peevesoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
Not being awkward is NP-hardoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
Some little things I do to make life easieroriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
Kid me was bad at Magic: The Gatheringoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
Gaming keyboards are not good for gamingoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
Belief in expert mistakesoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
TV is better when you trust the writersoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
I like reborrowed wordsoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2025
Wartime ethics is weirdoriginal ↗
28 Nov 2025
Alignment Bootstrapping Is Dangerousoriginal ↗
27 Nov 2025
Magic: The Gathering Arena decklists for people on a budgetoriginal ↗
26 Nov 2025
How to Fix Quidditchoriginal ↗
25 Nov 2025
I don't like having goalsoriginal ↗
24 Nov 2025
Some Curiosity Stoppers I've Heardoriginal ↗
23 Nov 2025
Where I Am Donating in 2025original ↗
22 Nov 2025
An unnecessarily long analysis of one line from The Princess Brideoriginal ↗
21 Nov 2025
We won't solve post-alignment problems by doing researchoriginal ↗
20 Nov 2025
Do Disruptive or Violent Protests Work?original ↗
19 Nov 2025
Why would God have a gender?original ↗
18 Nov 2025
Not-Discovered-Here Syndromeoriginal ↗
17 Nov 2025
Knowing whether AI alignment is a one-shot problem is a one-shot problemoriginal ↗
16 Nov 2025
What If Ghosts Were Real?original ↗
15 Nov 2025
In Defense of the NCIS Two-People-One-Keyboard Sceneoriginal ↗
14 Nov 2025
Epistemic Spot Check: Expected Value of Donating to Alex Bores's Congressional Campaignoriginal ↗
13 Nov 2025
Ideas Too Short for Essays, Part 2original ↗
12 Nov 2025
Are Groot and Baby Groot the Same Person?original ↗
11 Nov 2025
A Thesis Regarding The Impossibility Of Giving Accurate Time Estimates, Presented As An Experiment On Form In Which The Essay Solely Consists Of A Title; In Which The Thesis States That, If Task Times Follow A Pareto Distribution (With The Right Parameters), Then An Unknown Task Takes Infinite Time In Expectation; And Therefore, In The General Case, You Cannot Provide An Accurate Time Estimate Because Any Finite Estimate Provided Will Not Capture The Expected Value; And, More Precisely, Every Esoriginal ↗
10 Nov 2025
Upside Volatility Is Badoriginal ↗
9 Nov 2025
Writing Your Representatives: A Cost-Effective and Neglected Interventionoriginal ↗
8 Nov 2025
Things I Learned from Collegeoriginal ↗
7 Nov 2025
Cash Backoriginal ↗
6 Nov 2025
How Can I Not Know Whether I'm Having a Good Experience?original ↗
5 Nov 2025
Do Small Protests Work?original ↗
4 Nov 2025
My Third Caffeine Self-Experimentoriginal ↗
3 Nov 2025
Things I've Become More Confident Aboutoriginal ↗
2 Nov 2025
Will Welfareans Get to Experience the Future?original ↗
1 Nov 2025
The Next-Gen LLM Might Pose an Existential Threatoriginal ↗
15 Oct 2025
Mechanisms Rule Hypotheses Out, But Not Inoriginal ↗
8 Oct 2025
How Much Does It Cost to Offset an LLM Subscription?original ↗
4 Oct 2025
I made an Emacs extension that displays Magic: the Gathering card tooltipsoriginal ↗
3 Oct 2025
AI Safety Landscape and Strategic Gapsoriginal ↗
19 Sept 2025
Healthy Cooking Tips from a Lazy Personoriginal ↗
29 Aug 2025
Doctor Strange Didn't See Only One Victory out of 14,000,605 Futuresoriginal ↗
25 Jul 2025
Is it so much to ask for a nice reliable aggregated x-risk forecast?original ↗
12 Jul 2025
Annual subscription discounts usually aren't worth itoriginal ↗
7 Jul 2025
LLMs might already be consciousoriginal ↗
5 Jul 2025
In Which I Defend Fruit's Honororiginal ↗
8 Jun 2025
Updates Digest: Inaugural Editionoriginal ↗
30 May 2025
Against Ergodicity Economicsoriginal ↗
29 May 2025
Let's take a moment to marvel at how bad the original USDA food pyramid wasoriginal ↗
21 May 2025
Can you maintain lean mass in a calorie deficit?original ↗
1 May 2025
Why would AI companies use human-level AI to do alignment research?original ↗
25 Apr 2025
Do Protests Work? A Critical Revieworiginal ↗
18 Apr 2025
The Triple-Interaction-Effects Argumentoriginal ↗
10 Apr 2025
Next