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Is it so much to ask for a nice reliable aggregated x-risk forecast?

mdickens.me · published 12 July 2025

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https://www.metaculus.com/

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https://manifold.markets/

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https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/how-feasible-is-long-range-forecasting/

openphilanthropy.org

https://niplav.site/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html

niplav.site

https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt

forecastingresearch.org

https://forecastingresearch.org/near-term-xpt-accuracy

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https://x.com/Research_FRI/status/1962834279689265402

x.com

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-extinction-tournament

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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YTPtjExcwpii6NikG/existential-risk-persuasion-tournament

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https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/

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https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/

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https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12840/existential-risk-from-agi-vs-agi-timelines/

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https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oGhbJgxREBTp4W38C/are-there-superforecasts-for-existential-risk?commentId=pfAACKBuiXJyr373T

forum.effectivealtruism.org

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/

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https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf

fhi.ox.ac.uk

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843

arxiv.org

The Precipice Revisited Read at the source ↗

https://mdickens.me/2020/07/23/unknown_x-risks/

mdickens.me