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Record · marginalrevolution.com

Prediction Markets Are Very Accurate

Marginal Revolution · 2 min read

A post on marginalrevolution.com is cited by 4 distinct blogs to date (corpus.blog, measured 16 October 2026).

A record is what was published and who pointed at it. The text of the post is not shown here: read it at the source, or at its Wayback capture.

Read at marginalrevolution.com (opens in a new tab) Wayback capture (opens in a new tab)

4blogs citing

Citing blogs and links by period
Period Blogs Links
All time44
Last 90 days00
Last 30 days00
Last 7 days00
Figures for this page
First cited25 Oct 2025
Latest citation20 Nov 2025
Words blogs link it with3
External links2
Length438
New citing blogs a weeksince Oct 2025
New citing blogs a week, since Oct 2025: 52 weeks, peak 2 a week, latest week 0

0 this week (still settling) · peak 2

Show as table
New citing blogs a week, week by week
Week of Value
20 Oct 20251
27 Oct 20251
3 Nov 20250
10 Nov 20250
17 Nov 20252
24 Nov 20250
1 Dec 20250
8 Dec 20250
15 Dec 20250
22 Dec 20250
29 Dec 20250
5 Jan 20260
12 Jan 20260
19 Jan 20260
26 Jan 20260
2 Feb 20260
9 Feb 20260
16 Feb 20260
23 Feb 20260
2 Mar 20260
9 Mar 20260
16 Mar 20260
23 Mar 20260
30 Mar 20260
6 Apr 20260
13 Apr 20260
20 Apr 20260
27 Apr 20260
4 May 20260
11 May 20260
18 May 20260
25 May 20260
1 Jun 20260
8 Jun 20260
15 Jun 20260
22 Jun 20260
29 Jun 20260
6 Jul 20260
13 Jul 20260
20 Jul 20260
27 Jul 20260
3 Aug 20260
10 Aug 20260
17 Aug 20260
24 Aug 20260
31 Aug 20260
7 Sept 20260
14 Sept 20260
21 Sept 20260
28 Sept 20260 (still settling)
5 Oct 20260 (still settling)
12 Oct 20260 (still settling)

Each blog counts once, in the week of its first citation. A blog added to the index recently can bring old first citations in at once.

Words blogs link it with

The words blogs link this page with, by how many different blogs use them.

  • in many ways polymarket prediction markets are remarkably accurate2 blogs
  • kind of accurate?1 blog
  • prediction markets are very well-calibrated1 blog

Cited by 4 blogs in 4 posts

One row per blog, the most recently citing first. Each shows the blog's newest citing post; open a row for the others.

Dont Worry About the Vase1 post
Monthly Roundup #36: November 2025

linked as “In many ways Polymarket prediction markets are remarkably accurate”

Read at thezvi.substack.com (opens in a new tab)
20 Nov 2025
The Zvi1 post
Monthly Roundup #36: November 2025

linked as “In many ways Polymarket prediction markets are remarkably accurate”

Read at thezvi.wordpress.com (opens in a new tab)
19 Nov 2025
dynamicecology.wordpress.com1 post
Friday linkfests are more important than ever

linked as “Prediction markets are very well-calibrated”

Read at dynamicecology.wordpress.com (opens in a new tab)
31 Oct 2025
selectfromwhereand.com1 post
What I learned this week 10-25-2025

linked as “Kind of accurate?”

Read at selectfromwhereand.com (opens in a new tab)
25 Oct 2025

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