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AI Futures Model: Dec 2025 Update

blog.aifutures.org · published 31 December 2025

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7 Jul 2026
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7 Jul 2026
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epochai.substack.com
The missing half of AI futurism debates Read at the source ↗
7 Jul 2026

Links from this post

Link
Host
https://ai-2027.com/research
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https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/clarifying-how-our-ai-timelines-forecasts
blog.ai-futures.org
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substackcdn.com
https://blog.ai-futures.org/i/182911449/how-our-model-works
blog.ai-futures.org
https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/
aifuturesmodel.com
https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/forecast
aifuturesmodel.com
https://blog.ai-futures.org/i/182911449/comparison-to-our-previous-ai-timelines-and-takeoff-models
blog.ai-futures.org
https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf
aiimpacts.org
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anthropic.com
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https://aiimpacts.org/miri-ai-predictions-dataset/
aiimpacts.org
https://blog.ai-futures.org/i/182911449/timelines-and-takeoff-forecasts
blog.ai-futures.org
https://epochai.substack.com/p/the-case-for-multi-decade-ai-timelines
epochai.substack.com
https://epoch.ai/data/ai-companies
epoch.ai
https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/
cold-takes.com
http://takeoffspeeds.com
takeoffspeeds.com
https://epoch.ai/gate
epoch.ai
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en.wikipedia.org
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lesswrong.com
https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/
metr.org
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v-7Z!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F64acaf5f-f4cb-44bb-9144-045697b7f040_1600x697.png
substackcdn.com
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.14499
arxiv.org
https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast
ai-2027.com
https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf
intelligence.org
Takeoff speeds Read at the source ↗
sideways-view.com
How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be? Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SRwL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F558948f1-71f2-4224-a1b4-94a1fe6abb8b_1096x448.png
substackcdn.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TmIK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb1b69f9c-8329-442f-9062-278526c5cd86_1992x1264.heic
substackcdn.com
https://x.com/jam3scampbell/status/1967723551320141987
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https://x.com/tszzl/status/1967821096545382858
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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ru6Okbxb6XuH18Cz8439sdQJazMV39hNxsWDokh97r0/edit?tab=t.0
docs.google.com
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investopedia.com
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338
aeaweb.org
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_l7N!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf84418d-4850-4e58-82de-19b1ab177760_1111x556.png
substackcdn.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FBzC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1cbbb256-1e9b-4dff-98f0-4ffa286b85da_1600x758.png
substackcdn.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7tB4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec064ef7-c82b-4de6-b4ac-710c00165d26_1280x720.jpeg
substackcdn.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcYfsi7vmhDvzQGiF/taboo-outside-view
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like
lesswrong.com
https://x.com/deredleritt3r/status/2002442736431980857
x.com
https://blog.ai-futures.org/i/182911449/revenue-extrapolation
blog.ai-futures.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxuzALcmucCndYv4a/daniel-kokotajlo-s-shortform?view=postCommentsNew&commentId=P8qGMRnbEexaFB4s9
lesswrong.com
https://x.com/YafahEdelman/status/2002871018193670556
x.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gDEg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36ea5f1d-26e7-43d4-8890-9b0777abba0b_1099x502.png
substackcdn.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5pZb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F265563bd-bbe9-4323-b52b-bce300f55dd7_1111x588.png
substackcdn.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RtPE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30446ff8-9199-4907-9e64-bff89f1f68e4_2100x1200.png
substackcdn.com
https://ai-2027.com/research/takeoff-forecast
ai-2027.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7ur7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fccf82019-af9c-4b00-ba8f-1aa76c5311f6_2100x1200.png
substackcdn.com
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o8dn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5eaff8c-9106-4af1-b74b-fcf1211a18a3_1510x1118.png
substackcdn.com
Will AI R&D Automation Cause a Software Intelligence Explosion? Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1SI2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ba6928f-f18e-4c68-aeae-b9714ee07156_2224x1184.heic
substackcdn.com
https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf
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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!82Xj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5676503a-78f3-4126-9e09-14712edaab9b_1500x900.png
substackcdn.com
https://www.aifuturesmodel.com/results
aifuturesmodel.com
https://coefficientgiving.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/
coefficientgiving.org
https://longbets.org/1/
longbets.org
http://www.vetta.org/2009/12/tick-tock-tick-tock-bing/
vetta.org
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/shane-legg
dwarkesh.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect
en.wikipedia.org
https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/forecaster-reacts-metrs-bombshell
peterwildeford.substack.com
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/most-ai-value-will-come-from-broad-automation-not-from-r-d
epoch.ai
https://epoch.ai/blog/announcing-gate
epoch.ai
https://takeoffspeeds.com/description.html
takeoffspeeds.com
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assets.anthropic.com
https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/
metr.org