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AI Futurism Reading List

blog.redwoodresearch.org · published 2 July 2026

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Host
https://constellation.org/programs/astra
constellation.org
Three Types of Intelligence Explosion Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LjgcRbptarrRfJWtR/a-breakdown-of-ai-capability-levels-focused-on-ai-r-and-d
alignmentforum.org
Six milestones for AI automation Read at the source ↗
planned-obsolescence.org
Will AI R&D Automation Cause a Software Intelligence Explosion? Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
Full automation of AI R&D probably yields a large speed up even without a software-only singularity Read at the source ↗
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/ai-futures-model-dec-2025-update
blog.ai-futures.org
https://epoch.ai/data/eci-documentation
epoch.ai
https://metr.org/notes/2026-01-22-time-horizon-limitations/
metr.org
https://citp.princeton.edu/news/2025/does-ai-progress-have-speed-limit-ajeya-cotra-and-arvind-narayanan-conversation
citp.princeton.edu
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/if-mythos-actually-made-anthropic
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/ais-can-now-often-do-massive-easy
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/ais-capability-improvements-havent
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/the-case-for-multi-decade-ai-timelines
epoch.ai
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6pDMLYr7my2QMTz3s/broad-timelines
lesswrong.com
https://epoch.ai/blog/do-the-returns-to-software-rnd-point-towards-a-singularity
epoch.ai
How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be? Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://coefficientgiving.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/
coefficientgiving.org
https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030
epoch.ai
The Industrial Explosion Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FeaJcWkC6fuRAMsfp/the-behavioral-selection-model-for-predicting-ai-motivations-1
lesswrong.com
Risk from fitness-seeking AIs: mechanisms and mitigations Read at the source ↗
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yFofRxg7RRQYCcwFA/new-report-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during
lesswrong.com
https://joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com/2034731/episodes/13980105-full-audio-for-scheming-ais-will-ais-fake-alignment-during-training-in-order-to-get-power
joecarlsmithaudio.buzzsprout.com
AI 2027 (2025) Read at the source ↗
ai-2027.com
https://ai-2027.com/research/ai-goals-forecast
ai-2027.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/ryan-on-the-80000-hours-podcast
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AyNHoTWWAJ5eb99ji/another-outer-alignment-failure-story
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/what-failure-looks-like
lesswrong.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/current-ais-seem-pretty-misaligned
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://www.anthropic.com/research/persona-selection-model
anthropic.com
https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17424
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.09742
arxiv.org
https://assets.anthropic.com/m/74342f2c96095771/original/Natural-emergent-misalignment-from-reward-hacking-paper.pdf
assets.anthropic.com
https://www.antischeming.ai/
antischeming.ai
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qgehQxiTXj53X49mM/sonnet-4-5-s-eval-gaming-seriously-undermines-alignment
lesswrong.com
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/4j6HJt8Exowmqp245/different-senses-in-which-two-ais-can-be-the-same
alignmentforum.org
https://theartificialself.ai/
theartificialself.ai
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zuXo9imNKYspu9HGv/a-three-layer-model-of-llm-psychology
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xqkGmfikqapbJ2YMj/shard-theory-an-overview
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/epjuxGnSPof3GnMSL/alignment-remains-a-hard-unsolved-problem
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bnnKGSCHJghAvqPjS/foom-and-doom-2-technical-alignment-is-hard
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d4HNRdw6z7Xqbnu5E/6-reasons-why-alignment-is-hard-discourse-seems-alien-to
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r8H4d3X7AKg9n8TQk/how-human-like-do-safe-ai-motivations-need-to-be
lesswrong.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/will-ai-systems-drift-into-misalignment
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ntDA4Q7BaYhWPgzuq/reward-seekers
lesswrong.com
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/A9NxPTwbw6r6Awuwt/how-likely-is-deceptive-alignment
alignmentforum.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m5nWc9v6MTsWXKpCy/training-time-schemers-vs-behavioral-schemers
lesswrong.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/when-does-training-a-model-change
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yQSmcfN4kA7rATHGK/many-arguments-for-ai-x-risk-are-wrong
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to
lesswrong.com
Risk reports need to address deployment-time spread of misalignment Read at the source ↗
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/behavioral-red-teaming-is-unlikely
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.05566
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.14093
arxiv.org
https://youtu.be/9eXV64O2Xp8
youtu.be
https://www.understandingai.org/p/why-im-not-afraid-of-superintelligent
understandingai.org
https://knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-as-normal-technology
knightcolumbia.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kgb58RL88YChkkBNf/the-problem
lesswrong.com
https://pauseai.info/pdoom
pauseai.info
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wti4Wr7Cf5ma3FGWa/shallow-review-of-technical-ai-safety-2025-2
lesswrong.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/the-case-for-ensuring-that-powerful
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/buck-on-the-80000-hours-podcast
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8wBN8cdNAv3c7vt6p/the-case-against-ai-control-research
lesswrong.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/ai-catastrophes-and-rogue-deployments
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/an-overview-of-areas-of-control-work
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/prioritizing-threats-for-ai-control?utm_source=publication-search
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/wincontinuelose-scenarios-and-executereplaceaudi
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-conservative-assumptions
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/misalignment-and-strategic-underperformance
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/catching-ais-red-handed
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/ais-at-the-current-capability-level
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/jankily-controlling-superintelligence
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/an-overview-of-control-measures
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/how-can-we-solve-diffuse-threats
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/notes-on-handling-non-concentrated?utm_source=publication-search
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/how-to-prevent-collusion-when-using
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06942
arxiv.org
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/ctrl-z-controlling-ai-agents-via
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/basharena-and-control-setting-design
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/research-sabotage-in-ml-codebases
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CmkAxJi83jRv9eXgJ/advice-for-making-robust-to-training-model-organisms-1
lesswrong.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/plans-a-b-c-and-d-for-misalignment
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/how-do-we-more-safely-defer-to-ais
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/how-an-ai-company-ceo-could-quietly
blog.ai-futures.org
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/ten-people-on-the-inside
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://situational-awareness.ai/
situational-awareness.ai
https://oscardelaney.substack.com/p/crucial-considerations-in-asi-deterrence
oscardelaney.substack.com
https://peterwildeford.substack.com/cp/179934553
peterwildeford.substack.com
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/WHOSTP-2025-Wins.pdf
whitehouse.gov
https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/02/ai-state-law-new-york-raise-act-california-sb53
carnegieendowment.org
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/10/how-china-views-ai-risks-and-what-to-do-about-them
carnegieendowment.org
https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/why-china-isnt-about-to-leap-ahead-of-the-west-on-compute
epoch.ai
https://epoch.ai/data-insights/us-vs-china-eci
epoch.ai
https://substack.com/home/post/p-186039653
substack.com
https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/
nationalsecurity.ai
https://ai-frontiers.org/articles/ai-deterrence-is-our-best-option
ai-frontiers.org
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA3691-13.html
rand.org
https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/17310f6d70ae5627f55313ed067afc1a762a4068.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
www-cdn.anthropic.com
https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/18a02b5d-6b67-4cec-ab64-68cdfbddebcd/preparedness-framework-v2.pdf
cdn.openai.com
https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/strengthening-our-frontier-safety-framework/frontier-safety-framework_3.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
storage.googleapis.com
https://data.x.ai/2025-08-20-xai-risk-management-framework.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
data.x.ai
https://about.fb.com/news/2025/02/meta-approach-frontier-ai/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
about.fb.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE2WXbftEebdBLR9u/anthropic-is-quietly-backpedalling-on-its-safety-commitments
lesswrong.com
https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/holden-karnofsky-concrete-ai-safety-frontier-ai-companies/?t=2620
80000hours.org
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkPsbwzyOa8
youtube.com
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/
whitehouse.gov
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-californias-ai-safety-law/
brookings.edu
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Americas-AI-Action-Plan.pdf
whitehouse.gov
https://www.iaps.ai/compute-policy-hub
iaps.ai
https://concordia-ai.com/research/state-of-ai-safety-in-china-2025/
concordia-ai.com
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/concrete-projects-to-prepare-for
newsletter.forethought.org
https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/making-deals-with-early-schemers
redwoodresearch.substack.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oLzoHA9ZtF2ygYgx4/notes-on-cooperating-with-unaligned-ais
lesswrong.com
https://open.spotify.com/episode/624xSF4qCInZnF0FxWaQsf?si=POR2q2JkTrWcZCmnCVE7WQ
open.spotify.com
https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/a-taxonomy-of-barriers-to-trading
blog.redwoodresearch.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uuikfACQBm4KJZp4w/being-honest-with-ais
lesswrong.com
What Happens When Superhuman AIs Compete for Control? Read at the source ↗
blog.aifutures.org
https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/modifying-beliefs-via-sdf/
alignment.anthropic.com
https://dokumen.pub/arms-and-influence-2008925430-0300143370-9780300143379.html
dokumen.pub
https://www.sackett.net/Strategy-of-Conflict.pdf
sackett.net
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/ai-enabled-coups-how-a-small-group?utm_source=publication-search
newsletter.forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-can-we-prevent-ai-enabled-coups?utm_source=publication-search
newsletter.forethought.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q3HdtWXMzyYmHD8Kh/how-much-should-we-worry-about-secretly-loyal-ais
lesswrong.com
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/checks-balances-and-power-concentration
newsletter.forethought.org
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eEj9A9yMDgJyk98gm/cooperating-with-aliens-and-distant-agis-an-ecl-explainer
lesswrong.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KCKxCQyvim9uNAnSC/evidential-cooperation-in-large-worlds-potential-objections
lesswrong.com
https://longtermrisk.org/files/Multiverse-wide-Cooperation-via-Correlated-Decision-Making.pdf
longtermrisk.org
The stakes of AI moral status Read at the source ↗
joecarlsmith.com
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.08708
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.00986
arxiv.org
https://eleosai.org/post/key-concepts-and-current-beliefs-about-ai-moral-patienthood
eleosai.org
https://eleosai.org/post/working-paper-key-strategic-considerations-for-taking-action-on-ai-welfare/
eleosai.org
https://eleosai.org/post/research-priorities-for-ai-welfare
eleosai.org
Project Ideas: Sentience and Rights of Digital Minds Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://eleosai.org/post/claude-4-interview-notes/
eleosai.org
Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Language Models Read at the source ↗
transformer-circuits.pub
https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.13787
arxiv.org
https://youtu.be/pyXouxa0WnY
youtu.be
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.13952
arxiv.org
https://epochai.substack.com/p/do-the-biorisk-evaluations-of-ai
epochai.substack.com
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA3700/RRA3797-1/RAND_RRA3797-1.pdf
rand.org
https://forecastingresearch.org/ai-enabled-biorisk
forecastingresearch.org
https://cdn.governance.ai/Dual-Use_AI_Capabilities_and_the_Risk_of_Bioterrorism.pdf
cdn.governance.ai
https://80000hours.org/topic/world-problems/engineered-pandemics/
80000hours.org
https://80000hours.org/topic/world-problems/catastrophic-ai-misuse/
80000hours.org
https://80000hours.org/topic/world-problems/totalitarianism/
80000hours.org
https://80000hours.org/topic/world-problems/nuclear-war-world-problems/
80000hours.org
The importance of AI character Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/how-important-is-the-model-spec-if
newsletter.forethought.org
Stickiness in AI Behavioral Design Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/ai-should-be-a-good-citizen-not-just
newsletter.forethought.org
https://www.anthropic.com/constitution
anthropic.com
https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/msm/
alignment.anthropic.com
https://model-spec.openai.com/2025-12-18.html
model-spec.openai.com
Sharing the latest Model Spec Read at the source ↗
openai.com
https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/stress-testing-model-specs/
alignment.anthropic.com
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpNG99GhbBoLov9og/claude-4-5-opus-soul-document
lesswrong.com
https://www.anthropic.com/research/claude-character
anthropic.com
https://www.anthropic.com/research/constitutional-ai-harmlessness-from-ai-feedback
anthropic.com
Introducing Better Futures Read at the source ↗
forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/bootstrapping-to-viatopia?utm_source=publication-search
newsletter.forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/moral-public-goods-are-a-big-deal
newsletter.forethought.org
https://gradual-disempowerment.ai/
gradual-disempowerment.ai
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/should-we-make-grand-deals-about
newsletter.forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/could-space-debris-block-access-to?utm_source=publication-search
newsletter.forethought.org
https://newsletter.forethought.org/p/will-we-really-put-data-centers-in
newsletter.forethought.org