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Record · corpus.blog/posts/01a07d5b-b12f-72a9-8cae-e53ca7bcc0bc

Futurist prediction methods and accuracy

Dan Luu · published 12 September 2022

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Read the post at danluu.com Wayback capture
6blogs citing
First cited
31 Oct 2022
Most recent
24 Sept 2026
Rank this month
not ranked
Links from this post
76
Words captured
34,586

Cited by

Blog
In the post
Date
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Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress Read at the source ↗
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Things Read | Sept/Oct 2022 Read at the source ↗
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Links from this post

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Host
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Cocktail party ideas Read at the source ↗
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https://twitter.com/arxanas/status/1560756277231644673
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https://web.archive.org/web/20170225013846/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil
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https://nitter.ca/naijaflyingdr/status/1552751297908117504
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http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/ChanceEthics11.pdf
stat.columbia.edu
We used to build steel mills near cheap power. Now that's where we build datacenters Read at the source ↗
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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15008552/
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Technology_Roadmap_for_Semiconductors
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https://slate.com/technology/2022/08/the-dymaxion-car-the-true-history-of-buckminster-fullers-failed-automobile.html
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPETzKYLkco
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https://web.archive.org/web/20210814150424/https://www.globalchange.com/the-future-of-almost-everything-new-book-by-patrick-dixon.htm
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How out of date are Android devices? Read at the source ↗
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https://www.denverpost.com/2016/06/29/author-alvin-toffler-dies/
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https://amzn.to/3xxaKMW
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https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2012/05/09/welcome-to-the-future-nauseous/
ribbonfarm.com
https://twitter.com/MGSchmelzer/status/1331271177118109697
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Steve Yegge's prediction record Read at the source ↗
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Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this way Read at the source ↗
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https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1554559905167597568
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2021 update on my global warming “traffic light” bet with Bryan Caplan and Alex Tabarrok Read at the source ↗
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https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2006/06/16/my-first-billg-review/
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https://sites.google.com/site/steveyegge2/ten-predictions
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https://twitter.com/corry_wang/status/1340869586397372417
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https://www.patreon.com/posts/how-do-their-71735437
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https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1571051251357589510
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https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1571051255157653506
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instruction-level_parallelism
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https://twitter.com/ColeSouth/status/1550230811559198720
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https://www.gwern.net/Improvements
gwern.net
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDcUM9US4XdMROZ57-OIRtIK0aOynbgZN
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https://twitter.com/rygorous/status/1569379986708254721
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https://twitter.com/ESRogs/status/1570505904445095939
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https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1570520176239726593
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https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/my-conversation-with-philip-tetlock.html
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http://jbr.me.uk/retro/
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The Track Record of Futurists Seems ... Fine Read at the source ↗
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31294698
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https://tratt.net/laurie/blog/2005/predicting_the_future_of_computing.html
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https://web.archive.org/web/20150325002205/http://www.ukcrc.org.uk/press/news/report/gcresearch.cfm?type=pdf
web.archive.org
https://www.markloveless.net/blog/2023/01/02/past-predictions
markloveless.net
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results
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Reading citations is easier than most people think Read at the source ↗
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https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/693718279721730048/on-bio-anchors
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https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/holden-karnofsky-emails-me-on-transformative-ai.html
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https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/692246981744214016/more-on-metaculus-badness
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https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/692086358174498816/idk-who-needs-to-hear-this-but-metaculus-is
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https://danluu.com/dick-sites-alpha-axp-architecture.pdf
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https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/684991616356876288/its-driving-me-up-the-wall-the-way-i-keep-seeing
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https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/i-won-my-three-year-ai-progress-bet
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Rich guys and their dumb graphs: The visual equivalents of “Dow 36,000” Read at the source ↗
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https://rodneybrooks.com/category/dated-predictions/
rodneybrooks.com
https://www.econlib.org/no-one-cared-about-my-spreadsheets/
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https://twitter.com/garybernhardt/status/1122603722683453440
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https://www.benkuhn.net/wireless/
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https://twitter.com/danluu/status/8422681077711544320
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Genome_Project
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https://twitter.com/danluu/status/1547661623770329088
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Why is it so hard to buy things that work well? Read at the source ↗
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https://openphilanthropy.org/research/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth/
openphilanthropy.org