corpus.blog
41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a0d240-b40a-71c7-9a60-450180d39903", "title": "Pretty maps of the NY mayoral election vote. (The meta-point here is that people have a (false) intuition that any complicated piece of information can be conveyed in a single plot.)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/23/pretty-maps-of-the-ny-mayoral-election-vote-the-meta-point-here-is-that-people-have-a-false-intuition-that-any-complicated-piece-of-information-can-be-conveyed-in-a-single-plot/", "published_at": "2026-07-23T13:22:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d240-b40a-71c7-9a60-450181a01ead", "title": "He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/22/he-washed-his-hands-in-a-can-of-tetraethyl-lead-at-a-press-conference-claiming-he-was-not-taking-any-chance-whatever-he-knew-this-to-be-a-lie-having-already-succumbed-to-a-bout/", "published_at": "2026-07-22T13:10:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d240-b40a-71c7-9a60-450181b77a70", "title": "Survey Statistics: poststratification without population level information", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/21/survey-statistics-poststratification-without-population-level-information/", "published_at": "2026-07-21T20:15:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d240-b40a-71c7-9a60-4501829e3342", "title": "Was this USDA survey really “redundant, costly, politicized, and extraneous”?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/21/was-this-usda-survey-really-redundant-costly-politicized-and-extraneous/", "published_at": "2026-07-21T13:59:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4527f98d", "title": "Rebecca Makkai points out: Fancy three-dimensional sets are easier to construct in books than in movies, but harder to explain", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/20/fancy-three-dimensional-sets-are-easier-to-construct-in-books-than-in-movies-but-harder-to-explain/", "published_at": "2026-07-20T13:04:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4573e35c", "title": "Ted-talking University of California professor asks sex trafficker for $3,000,000 because he thinks there’s a “50% chance” he’ll make “important discoveries” in telepathy", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/19/university-of-california-professor-and-ted-talk-performer-asks-sex-trafficker-for-3000000-because-he-thinks-theres-a-50-chance-hell-make-important-discoveries-in-telepathy/", "published_at": "2026-07-19T13:27:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa45d037b9", "title": "It’s all about the Super Pacs: How the New York Times completely misreported campaign contributions in the Maine Senate race", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/18/its-all-about-the-super-pacs-how-the-new-york-times-completely-misreported-campaign-contributions-in-the-maine-senate-race/", "published_at": "2026-07-18T16:18:10+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa46af0e71", "title": "More scientists in the Epstein files, including a roboticist and an ESP researcher", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/18/more-scientists-in-the-epstein-files-including-a-roboticist-and-an-esp-researcher/", "published_at": "2026-07-18T13:25:32+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4761acb2", "title": "Herman Chernoff", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/17/herman-chernoff/", "published_at": "2026-07-17T13:26:42+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa47d3cf26", "title": "Reviews of our Bayesian Workflow book from Bin Yu, David Spiegelhalter, Brad Efron, Christian Robert, Rohan Alexander, and Mine Doğucu!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/16/reviews-of-our-bayesian-workflow-book-from-bin-yu-david-spiegelhalter-brad-efron-christian-robert-and-rohan-alexander/", "published_at": "2026-07-16T13:11:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa48666786", "title": "A ranked-choice election in Maine: Using voting data to understand preferences", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/15/a-ranked-choice-election-in-maine-using-voting-data-to-understand-preferences/", "published_at": "2026-07-15T13:15:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa494e82f2", "title": "Survey Statistics: quantifying uncertainty in ranked choice voting polls", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/14/survey-statistics-quantifying-uncertainty-in-ranked-choice-voting-polls/", "published_at": "2026-07-14T20:00:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa49a1b6a5", "title": "“Making Statistics Work: Information Theory and Bayesian Inference”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/14/making-statistics-work-information-theory-and-bayesian-inference/", "published_at": "2026-07-14T13:45:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4a4d65f7", "title": "It’s all about the nonlinearity: An interesting statistical example of flaws in a voter impact index", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/13/interesting-statistical-example-of-flaws-in-a-voter-impact-index/", "published_at": "2026-07-13T13:34:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4b488bd4", "title": "“Archaeology can’t give social scientists population or GDP, but here are some things we can measure that might be useful for social science.”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/12/archaeology-cant-give-social-scientists-population-or-gdp-but-here-are-some-things-we-can-measure-that-might-be-useful-for-social-science/", "published_at": "2026-07-12T13:00:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4baab4dd", "title": "“More bad science from JAMA”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/11/more-bad-science-from-jama/", "published_at": "2026-07-11T13:19:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4c706018", "title": "18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/18-associate-editors-resign-from-statistics-and-computing-editorial-board-problems-with-commercial-scholarly-publishing-and-what-does-this-all-mean/", "published_at": "2026-07-10T13:27:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4d05182e", "title": "“A medical journal says the case reports it has published for 25 years are, in fact, fiction”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/09/a-medical-journal-says-the-case-reports-it-has-published-for-25-years-are-in-fact-fiction/", "published_at": "2026-07-09T13:36:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4d8bbcc0", "title": "Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/08/is-fabricating-data-worse-than-fabricating-results-is-failing-to-correct-a-known-false-report-more-or-less-serious-than-making-the-false-report-in-the-first-place/", "published_at": "2026-07-08T13:19:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4e668dde", "title": "Survey Statistics: toy example for energy balancing weights", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/07/survey-statistics-toy-example-for-energy-balancing-weights/", "published_at": "2026-07-08T00:08:06+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4f53268f", "title": "Claude builds 3D Hamiltonian Monte Carlo animation in one shot with anaglyphs", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/07/claude-builds-3d-hamiltonian-monte-carlo-animation-in-one-shot-with-anaglyphs/", "published_at": "2026-07-07T20:54:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4fc24f5c", "title": "A message for Carol Tavris", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/07/can-someone-forward-this-to-carol-tavris-please/", "published_at": "2026-07-07T13:10:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa4fc85add", "title": "Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather events", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/06/turning-chaotic-sensitivity-from-a-bug-into-a-feature-using-physical-modeling-and-deep-learning-to-alter-the-paths-of-storms-and-mitigate-extreme-weather-events/", "published_at": "2026-07-06T13:36:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa501b0dd8", "title": "The NIH wants to “Measure and Reward Scientific Impact and Replicable Research Practices.” Here’s my recommendation to the NIH director: you can start by no longer suppressing government reports whose conclusions happen to not be in accord with your ideological preferences.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/05/n2/", "published_at": "2026-07-05T13:52:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa509d37e8", "title": "2015-vintage replication-crisis-era junk science floats into the news", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/04/2015-vintage-replication-crisis-junk-science-floats-into-the-news/", "published_at": "2026-07-04T13:54:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa51574dd0", "title": "A new episode in the Francesca Gino case", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/03/a-new-episode-in-the-francesca-gino-case/", "published_at": "2026-07-03T13:11:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa51ab046c", "title": "The high cost of split R-hat", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/02/the-high-cost-of-split-r-hat/", "published_at": "2026-07-02T19:00:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa525f7373", "title": "Guess who’s getting the big-money donations in the Maine U.S. Senate race?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/02/whos-getting-the-big-money-donations-in-the-maine-u-s-senate-race/", "published_at": "2026-07-02T13:32:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa53159f16", "title": "The optimizer’s curse", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/01/the-optimizers-curse/", "published_at": "2026-07-01T13:03:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa535e4683", "title": "Survey Statistics: Big Changes in the Times/Siena Poll", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/30/survey-statistics-big-changes-in-the-times-siena-poll/", "published_at": "2026-06-30T20:01:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa5401f232", "title": "OK, I guess Lawrence “Epstein” Krauss didn’t follow his brother’s advice.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/30/ok-i-guess-lawrence-krauss-didnt-follow-his-brothers-advice/", "published_at": "2026-06-30T13:22:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa54f7c313", "title": "Cheapskate evolutionary biologist underpays his statistical help", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/29/cheapskate-evolutionary-biologist-underpays-his-statistical-help/", "published_at": "2026-06-29T13:49:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa557a6f9f", "title": "The Anthropic Principle in Statistics and Science (my talk this Mon 29 June, 4:20pm London time)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/28/the-anthropic-principle-in-statistics-and-science-my-talk-this-mon-29-june-420pm-london-time/", "published_at": "2026-06-28T13:56:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa55efb1ba", "title": "Bayesian Workflow exists as a physical book!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/27/bayesian-workflow-exists-as-a-physical-book/", "published_at": "2026-06-27T17:51:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa560b70ef", "title": "Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/27/scientific-american-has-returned-to-form/", "published_at": "2026-06-27T13:36:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83ae-7053-8376-f9fa56793eac", "title": "“Springer Nature has removed two studies by Max Planck.”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/26/springer-nature-has-removed-two-studies-by-max-planck/", "published_at": "2026-06-26T22:41:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b63a6c751", "title": "Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/26/dont-alphabetize/", "published_at": "2026-06-26T13:44:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b63d19723", "title": "Structural equation modeling (SEM) and positive definiteness", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/25/structural-equation-modeling-sem-and-positive-definiteness/", "published_at": "2026-06-25T19:00:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b64bd7f33", "title": "Getting justice can require a lot of effort, and usually at some point we’ll just give up, which is what the cheaters rely on.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/25/getting-justice-can-require-a-lot-of-effort-and-usually-at-some-point-well-just-give-up-which-is-what-the-cheaters-rely-on/", "published_at": "2026-06-25T13:05:55+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b64e11c75", "title": "Treating AI review like the contentious policy design problem it is", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/24/treating-ai-review-like-the-contentious-policy-design-problem-it-is/", "published_at": "2026-06-24T16:18:09+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b650bfde8", "title": "“Howard Lutnick gives top Cantor Fitzgerald jobs to his sons Brandon and Kyle” is a very clean example of meritocracy.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/24/howard-lutnick-gives-top-cantor-fitzgerald-jobs-to-his-sons-brandon-and-kyle-is-a-very-clean-example-of-meritocracy/", "published_at": "2026-06-24T13:26:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b653c8a55", "title": "To select or not to select?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/24/to-select-or-not-to-select/", "published_at": "2026-06-24T09:27:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b658b4204", "title": "Survey Statistics: perfect collinearity in the sample but not in the population", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/23/survey-statistics-perfect-collinearity-in-the-sample-but-not-in-the-population/", "published_at": "2026-06-23T20:00:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b665dc6ee", "title": "Mind-body healing: An exchange.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/23/mind-body-healing-an-exchange/", "published_at": "2026-06-23T13:43:27+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b666d4711", "title": "Golems, auditors, and AI", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/22/golems-auditors-and-ai/", "published_at": "2026-06-23T02:04:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b66f0494f", "title": "Workshop on Rethinking the Role of Bayesianism in the Age of Modern AI", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/22/workshop-on-rethinking-the-role-of-bayesianism-in-the-age-of-modern-ai/", "published_at": "2026-06-22T20:13:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b67ce60d0", "title": "The new rule in economics: One star is p < 0.20, two stars is a set of steak knives, three stars is you're fired.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/22/one-star-is-p-0-20-two-stars-is-a-set-of-steak-knives-three-stars-is-youre-fired/", "published_at": "2026-06-22T13:03:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b689de344", "title": "Online haters in the low-budget literary biz", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/21/online-haters-in-the-low-budget-literary-biz/", "published_at": "2026-06-21T13:29:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b6986362e", "title": "A tool for learning about Fourier transforms", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/20/a-tool-for-learning-about-fourier-transforms/", "published_at": "2026-06-20T13:23:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b69f01b0b", "title": "Gray Davis, Grover Norquist, and a rabbi walk into Peter Thiel’s Dialog conference . . . and get no press coverage!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/19/gray-davis-grover-norquist-and-a-rabbi-walk-into-a-conference-and-get-no-press-coverage/", "published_at": "2026-06-19T13:01:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b6a2fe13e", "title": "LLM-generated Stan case study on Galileo’s inclined plane experiment", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/18/llm-case-study-galilelo-inclined-plane/", "published_at": "2026-06-18T19:00:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b6a33b3ea", "title": "Gambling provides a gentle rocking of the emotions to put you in a pleasant baby-like state", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/18/gambling-provides-a-gentle-rocking-of-the-emotions-to-put-you-in-a-pleasant-baby-like-state/", "published_at": "2026-06-18T13:25:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b6a5186b3", "title": "Elmore Leonard.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/17/elmore-leonard/", "published_at": "2026-06-17T13:55:10+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d241-83af-70cc-a670-c84b6b3ca8e5", "title": "R wins statistics award.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/17/53890/", "published_at": "2026-06-17T06:00:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cadb3f017", "title": "Call for invited session proposals for the upcoming BayesComp conference", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/16/call-for-invited-session-proposals-for-the-upcoming-bayescomp-conference/", "published_at": "2026-06-16T21:42:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cae9e5c0d", "title": "Survey Statistics: using MRP in later analyses (pride edition)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/16/survey-statistics-using-mrp-in-later-analyses-pride-edition/", "published_at": "2026-06-16T20:00:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254caf39882e", "title": "The New York Knicks and the martingale property of calibrated probability forecasts (with some simulation and R code)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/16/the-new-york-knicks-and-the-martingale-property-of-calibrated-probability-forecasts/", "published_at": "2026-06-16T13:08:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb01b5bad", "title": "Ph.D. student opening in Sweden on Earth Observation, Data Science, and AI for poverty estimation", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/15/ph-d-student-opening-in-sweden-on-earth-observation-data-science-and-ai-for-poverty-estimation-the-data-science/", "published_at": "2026-06-15T21:37:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb032e9a7", "title": "Capitalism: On its last legs or healthy enough to be milked?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/15/capitalism-on-its-last-legs-or-healthy-enough-to-be-milked/", "published_at": "2026-06-15T13:30:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb1254e6b", "title": "“Are prediction markets causing more harm than good?”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/14/are-prediction-markets-causing-more-harm-than-good/", "published_at": "2026-06-14T12:37:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb15b1c8e", "title": "To what extent is it true that “All intelligence, human or artificial, must extract structure from correlational data”?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/13/to-what-extent-is-it-true-that-all-intelligence-human-or-artificial-must-extract-structure-from-correlational-data/", "published_at": "2026-06-13T13:49:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb21765a0", "title": "Jazz and quantum mechanics: Eventually Dmitri realized that they are kind of similar", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/12/jazz-and-quantum-mechanics-eventually-dmitri-realized-that-they-are-kind-of-similar/", "published_at": "2026-06-12T13:06:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb221ce70", "title": "Adjusting for nonrepresentativeness in continuous norming using multilevel regression and poststratification.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/11/adjusting-for-nonrepresentativeness-in-continuous-norming-using-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification/", "published_at": "2026-06-11T13:38:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb2aa2705", "title": "“The Data Analyst’s Guide to Cause and Effect”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/10/the-data-analysts-guide-to-cause-and-effect/", "published_at": "2026-06-11T00:38:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb333c246", "title": "From a message I sent to a potential co-blogger", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/10/from-a-message-i-sent-to-a-potential-co-blogger/", "published_at": "2026-06-10T13:14:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb3ef2259", "title": "Survey Statistics: should MRP workflow include LOCO-CV ?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/09/survey-statistics-should-mrp-workflow-include-loco-cv/", "published_at": "2026-06-09T20:00:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb47b41d4", "title": "Naming a jail after a convicted criminal", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/09/naming-a-jail-after-a-convicted-criminal/", "published_at": "2026-06-09T13:14:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb482aa0c", "title": "Stein’s method, learning and inference -or- how to really monitor convergence and thin chains", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/08/steins-method-learning-and-inference-or-how-to-really-monitor-convergence-and-thin-chains/", "published_at": "2026-06-08T19:00:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb569e577", "title": "Podcast coming on Bayesian workflow! With a contest!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/08/podcast-coming-on-bayesian-workflow-with-a-contest/", "published_at": "2026-06-08T13:26:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb5f30757", "title": "Scott Alexander as a modern-day Edmund Wilson", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/07/scott-alexander-as-a-modern-day-edmund-wilson/", "published_at": "2026-06-07T13:34:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb658986d", "title": "When is detecting AI-generated text worthwhile?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/06/when-is-detecting-ai-generated-text-worthwhile/", "published_at": "2026-06-06T20:04:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb6bebc2f", "title": "What is the relation between interactions in a regression model and correlations among the predictors?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/06/what-is-the-relation-between-interactions-in-a-regression-model-and-correlations-among-the-predictors/", "published_at": "2026-06-06T13:31:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb75d96fe", "title": "Old posts on the Monkey Cage blog, also something about Israel and Hamas", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/05/old-posts-on-the-monkey-cage-blog/", "published_at": "2026-06-05T13:44:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb7701e2b", "title": "Against shallow anti-rational humanism", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/04/against-shallow-humanism/", "published_at": "2026-06-04T13:32:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb7f8feeb", "title": "Epidemiologist Donna Spiegelman sez: SUTVA is “mostly not necessary for valid causal estimation and inference most of the time”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/03/epidemiologist-donna-spiegelman-sez-sutva-is-mostly-not-necessary-for-valid-causal-estimation-and-inference-most-of-the-time/", "published_at": "2026-06-03T13:12:31+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb87f1b39", "title": "Survey Statistics: it is (still) the people", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/02/survey-statistics-it-is-still-the-people/", "published_at": "2026-06-02T20:00:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb8e48495", "title": "Say what you want about this junk survey, at least it’s more plausible than other hyped claims like the hyperloop or the idea that UFOs are space aliens!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/02/hey-its-more-plausible-than-the-hyperloop-or-the-idea-that-ufos-are-space-aliens/", "published_at": "2026-06-02T13:38:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb9471d8d", "title": "Noem’s Razor and why I think the concept of “unintended consequences” is overrated", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/01/noems-razor-and-why-i-think-the-concept-of-unintended-consequences-is-overrated/", "published_at": "2026-06-01T13:41:13+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cb9e8580d", "title": "“Rationally Turbulent Expectations”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/31/rationally-turbulent-expectations/", "published_at": "2026-05-31T13:27:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cba6f2432", "title": "Against too-clever-by-half political science cynicism", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/30/against-too-clever-by-half-political-science-cynicism/", "published_at": "2026-05-30T13:35:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbb3cdf40", "title": "15 new articles on statistical workflow!", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/29/15-new-articles-on-statistical-workflow/", "published_at": "2026-05-29T13:50:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbbf950dd", "title": "The Kappa Zoo: David Eubanks’s online monograph on rating models", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/28/the-kappa-zoo-david-eubankss-online-monograph-on-rating-models/", "published_at": "2026-05-28T19:00:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbc1ccff1", "title": "What if scientists really were dispassionate observers, communicating ideas without irrational commitment? Look here, says AI.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/28/what-if-scientists-really-were-dispassionate-observers-communicating-ideas-without-irrational-commitment-look-here-says-ai/", "published_at": "2026-05-28T16:37:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbc45f412", "title": "Statistical analysis recapitulates the development of statistical methods", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/28/statistical-analysis-recapitulates-the-development-of-statistical-methods/", "published_at": "2026-05-28T13:00:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbcd6f22d", "title": "No, Bayes does not like Mayor Pete. (Pitfalls of using implied betting market odds to estimate electability.)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/27/no-bayes-does-not-like-mayor-pete-pitfalls-of-using-implied-betting-market-odds-to-estimate-electability/", "published_at": "2026-05-27T13:03:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbcdbb9d2", "title": "Survey Statistics: double-plus robustness", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/26/survey-statistics-double-plus-robustness/", "published_at": "2026-05-26T21:15:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbce0f0b1", "title": "How much skill is in “skill games”? There can’t be much.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/26/how-much-skill-is-in-skill-games-there-cant-be-much/", "published_at": "2026-05-26T13:46:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbd1cda27", "title": "“The Ten Year Affair”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/25/the-ten-year-affair/", "published_at": "2026-05-25T13:06:32+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbdcc19b4", "title": "Physics fraud compared to fraud and junk science in the social and behavioral sciences", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/24/physics-fraud-compared-to-fraud-and-junk-science-in-the-social-and-behavioral-sciences/", "published_at": "2026-05-24T13:12:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbe7481e2", "title": "The “humans are imperfect reporters too” defense for ascribing little thoughts to machines", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/23/the-humans-are-imperfect-reporters-too-defense-for-ascribing-little-thoughts-to-machines/", "published_at": "2026-05-23T16:12:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbea601af", "title": "Differences between crackdowns on dissent now and in the early Cold War period", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/23/differences-between-crackdowns-on-dissent-now-and-in-the-early-cold-war-period/", "published_at": "2026-05-23T13:07:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbf0b97bc", "title": "Don’t cite sources you haven’t read, and don’t trust when people claim to be reporting something from the literature.", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/22/dont-cite-sources-you-havent-read-and-dont-trust-when-people-claim-to-be-reporting-something-from-the-literature/", "published_at": "2026-05-22T13:32:32+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cbf3870b3", "title": "Full day Stan tutorial at Modern Modeling Methods (M3) this summer in New York (22 June 2026)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/21/full-day-stan-tutorial-at-modern-modeling-methods-m3-this-summer-in-new-york-22-june-2026/", "published_at": "2026-05-21T19:00:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc000a1e5", "title": "“The Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can’t Cure Our Social Ills”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/21/the-quick-fix-why-fad-psychology-cant-cure-our-social-ills/", "published_at": "2026-05-21T13:55:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc055a139", "title": "What do I think about that proposed Arxiv policy to ban authors of papers with AI slop?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/20/what-do-i-think-about-that-proposed-arxiv-policy-to-ban-authors-of-papers-with-ai-slop/", "published_at": "2026-05-20T13:23:55+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc0f8a4b9", "title": "Survey Statistics: GREG", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/19/survey-statistics-greg/", "published_at": "2026-05-19T21:33:09+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc12523dc", "title": "James Heathers will fix Wiley’s problems for less than 3.7 million dollars (that is, 2,553,739 Jamaican beef patties, 47,064 whisky-sodden meals at Newark airport, or nearly 218 invites to a conference featuring Gray Davis, Grover Norquist, and a rabbi)", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/19/j/", "published_at": "2026-05-19T13:55:42+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc13be8c2", "title": "MrPlew: Locally Equivalent Weights for Multilevel Regression and Poststratification", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/18/mrplew-locally-equivalent-weights-for-multilevel-regression-and-poststratification/", "published_at": "2026-05-18T22:57:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc15f1e4c", "title": "Jonah’s seminar tomorrow: “Bayesian Workflow and the Software That Shapes It”", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/18/jonahs-seminar-tomorrow-bayesian-workflow-and-the-software-that-shapes-it/", "published_at": "2026-05-18T16:30:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0d242-5742-7178-a3ae-254cc1c84bea", "title": "What is “the definition of a professional career”?", "url": "https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/18/whats-the-definition-of-a-professional-career-2/", "published_at": "2026-05-18T13:03:22+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog
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Andrew Gelman

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

2026

Pretty maps of the NY mayoral election vote. (The meta-point here is that people have a (false) intuition that any complicated piece of information can be conveyed in a single plot.)original ↗
23 Jul 2026
He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”original ↗
22 Jul 2026
Survey Statistics: poststratification without population level informationoriginal ↗
21 Jul 2026
Was this USDA survey really “redundant, costly, politicized, and extraneous”?original ↗
21 Jul 2026
Rebecca Makkai points out: Fancy three-dimensional sets are easier to construct in books than in movies, but harder to explainoriginal ↗
20 Jul 2026
Ted-talking University of California professor asks sex trafficker for $3,000,000 because he thinks there’s a “50% chance” he’ll make “important discoveries” in telepathyoriginal ↗
19 Jul 2026
It’s all about the Super Pacs: How the New York Times completely misreported campaign contributions in the Maine Senate raceoriginal ↗
18 Jul 2026
More scientists in the Epstein files, including a roboticist and an ESP researcheroriginal ↗
18 Jul 2026
Herman Chernofforiginal ↗
17 Jul 2026
Reviews of our Bayesian Workflow book from Bin Yu, David Spiegelhalter, Brad Efron, Christian Robert, Rohan Alexander, and Mine Doğucu!original ↗
16 Jul 2026
A ranked-choice election in Maine: Using voting data to understand preferencesoriginal ↗
15 Jul 2026
Survey Statistics: quantifying uncertainty in ranked choice voting pollsoriginal ↗
14 Jul 2026
“Making Statistics Work: Information Theory and Bayesian Inference”original ↗
14 Jul 2026
It’s all about the nonlinearity: An interesting statistical example of flaws in a voter impact indexoriginal ↗
13 Jul 2026
“Archaeology can’t give social scientists population or GDP, but here are some things we can measure that might be useful for social science.”original ↗
12 Jul 2026
“More bad science from JAMA”original ↗
11 Jul 2026
18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean?original ↗
10 Jul 2026
“A medical journal says the case reports it has published for 25 years are, in fact, fiction”original ↗
9 Jul 2026
Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?original ↗
8 Jul 2026
Survey Statistics: toy example for energy balancing weightsoriginal ↗
8 Jul 2026
Claude builds 3D Hamiltonian Monte Carlo animation in one shot with anaglyphsoriginal ↗
7 Jul 2026
A message for Carol Tavrisoriginal ↗
7 Jul 2026
Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsoriginal ↗
6 Jul 2026
The NIH wants to “Measure and Reward Scientific Impact and Replicable Research Practices.” Here’s my recommendation to the NIH director: you can start by no longer suppressing government reports whose conclusions happen to not be in accord with your ideological preferences.original ↗
5 Jul 2026
2015-vintage replication-crisis-era junk science floats into the newsoriginal ↗
4 Jul 2026
A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseoriginal ↗
3 Jul 2026
The high cost of split R-hatoriginal ↗
2 Jul 2026
Guess who’s getting the big-money donations in the Maine U.S. Senate race?original ↗
2 Jul 2026
The optimizer’s curseoriginal ↗
1 Jul 2026
Survey Statistics: Big Changes in the Times/Siena Polloriginal ↗
30 Jun 2026
OK, I guess Lawrence “Epstein” Krauss didn’t follow his brother’s advice.original ↗
30 Jun 2026
Cheapskate evolutionary biologist underpays his statistical helporiginal ↗
29 Jun 2026
The Anthropic Principle in Statistics and Science (my talk this Mon 29 June, 4:20pm London time)original ↗
28 Jun 2026
Bayesian Workflow exists as a physical book!original ↗
27 Jun 2026
Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:original ↗
27 Jun 2026
“Springer Nature has removed two studies by Max Planck.”original ↗
26 Jun 2026
Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.original ↗
26 Jun 2026
Structural equation modeling (SEM) and positive definitenessoriginal ↗
25 Jun 2026
Getting justice can require a lot of effort, and usually at some point we’ll just give up, which is what the cheaters rely on.original ↗
25 Jun 2026
Treating AI review like the contentious policy design problem it isoriginal ↗
24 Jun 2026
“Howard Lutnick gives top Cantor Fitzgerald jobs to his sons Brandon and Kyle” is a very clean example of meritocracy.original ↗
24 Jun 2026
To select or not to select?original ↗
24 Jun 2026
Survey Statistics: perfect collinearity in the sample but not in the populationoriginal ↗
23 Jun 2026
Mind-body healing: An exchange.original ↗
23 Jun 2026
Golems, auditors, and AIoriginal ↗
23 Jun 2026
Workshop on Rethinking the Role of Bayesianism in the Age of Modern AIoriginal ↗
22 Jun 2026
The new rule in economics: One star is p < 0.20, two stars is a set of steak knives, three stars is you're fired.original ↗
22 Jun 2026
Online haters in the low-budget literary bizoriginal ↗
21 Jun 2026
A tool for learning about Fourier transformsoriginal ↗
20 Jun 2026
Gray Davis, Grover Norquist, and a rabbi walk into Peter Thiel’s Dialog conference . . . and get no press coverage!original ↗
19 Jun 2026
LLM-generated Stan case study on Galileo’s inclined plane experimentoriginal ↗
18 Jun 2026
Gambling provides a gentle rocking of the emotions to put you in a pleasant baby-like stateoriginal ↗
18 Jun 2026
Elmore Leonard.original ↗
17 Jun 2026
R wins statistics award.original ↗
17 Jun 2026
Call for invited session proposals for the upcoming BayesComp conferenceoriginal ↗
16 Jun 2026
Survey Statistics: using MRP in later analyses (pride edition)original ↗
16 Jun 2026
The New York Knicks and the martingale property of calibrated probability forecasts (with some simulation and R code)original ↗
16 Jun 2026
Ph.D. student opening in Sweden on Earth Observation, Data Science, and AI for poverty estimationoriginal ↗
15 Jun 2026
Capitalism: On its last legs or healthy enough to be milked?original ↗
15 Jun 2026
“Are prediction markets causing more harm than good?”original ↗
14 Jun 2026
To what extent is it true that “All intelligence, human or artificial, must extract structure from correlational data”?original ↗
13 Jun 2026
Jazz and quantum mechanics: Eventually Dmitri realized that they are kind of similaroriginal ↗
12 Jun 2026
Adjusting for nonrepresentativeness in continuous norming using multilevel regression and poststratification.original ↗
11 Jun 2026
“The Data Analyst’s Guide to Cause and Effect”original ↗
11 Jun 2026
From a message I sent to a potential co-bloggeroriginal ↗
10 Jun 2026
Survey Statistics: should MRP workflow include LOCO-CV ?original ↗
9 Jun 2026
Naming a jail after a convicted criminaloriginal ↗
9 Jun 2026
Stein’s method, learning and inference -or- how to really monitor convergence and thin chainsoriginal ↗
8 Jun 2026
Podcast coming on Bayesian workflow! With a contest!original ↗
8 Jun 2026
Scott Alexander as a modern-day Edmund Wilsonoriginal ↗
7 Jun 2026
When is detecting AI-generated text worthwhile?original ↗
6 Jun 2026
What is the relation between interactions in a regression model and correlations among the predictors?original ↗
6 Jun 2026
Old posts on the Monkey Cage blog, also something about Israel and Hamasoriginal ↗
5 Jun 2026
Against shallow anti-rational humanismoriginal ↗
4 Jun 2026
Epidemiologist Donna Spiegelman sez: SUTVA is “mostly not necessary for valid causal estimation and inference most of the time”original ↗
3 Jun 2026
Survey Statistics: it is (still) the peopleoriginal ↗
2 Jun 2026
Say what you want about this junk survey, at least it’s more plausible than other hyped claims like the hyperloop or the idea that UFOs are space aliens!original ↗
2 Jun 2026
Noem’s Razor and why I think the concept of “unintended consequences” is overratedoriginal ↗
1 Jun 2026
“Rationally Turbulent Expectations”original ↗
31 May 2026
Against too-clever-by-half political science cynicismoriginal ↗
30 May 2026
15 new articles on statistical workflow!original ↗
29 May 2026
The Kappa Zoo: David Eubanks’s online monograph on rating modelsoriginal ↗
28 May 2026
What if scientists really were dispassionate observers, communicating ideas without irrational commitment? Look here, says AI.original ↗
28 May 2026
Statistical analysis recapitulates the development of statistical methodsoriginal ↗
28 May 2026
No, Bayes does not like Mayor Pete. (Pitfalls of using implied betting market odds to estimate electability.)original ↗
27 May 2026
Survey Statistics: double-plus robustnessoriginal ↗
26 May 2026
How much skill is in “skill games”? There can’t be much.original ↗
26 May 2026
“The Ten Year Affair”original ↗
25 May 2026
Physics fraud compared to fraud and junk science in the social and behavioral sciencesoriginal ↗
24 May 2026
The “humans are imperfect reporters too” defense for ascribing little thoughts to machinesoriginal ↗
23 May 2026
Differences between crackdowns on dissent now and in the early Cold War periodoriginal ↗
23 May 2026
Don’t cite sources you haven’t read, and don’t trust when people claim to be reporting something from the literature.original ↗
22 May 2026
Full day Stan tutorial at Modern Modeling Methods (M3) this summer in New York (22 June 2026)original ↗
21 May 2026
“The Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can’t Cure Our Social Ills”original ↗
21 May 2026
What do I think about that proposed Arxiv policy to ban authors of papers with AI slop?original ↗
20 May 2026
Survey Statistics: GREGoriginal ↗
19 May 2026
James Heathers will fix Wiley’s problems for less than 3.7 million dollars (that is, 2,553,739 Jamaican beef patties, 47,064 whisky-sodden meals at Newark airport, or nearly 218 invites to a conference featuring Gray Davis, Grover Norquist, and a rabbi)original ↗
19 May 2026
MrPlew: Locally Equivalent Weights for Multilevel Regression and Poststratificationoriginal ↗
18 May 2026
Jonah’s seminar tomorrow: “Bayesian Workflow and the Software That Shapes It”original ↗
18 May 2026
What is “the definition of a professional career”?original ↗
18 May 2026
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