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"https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/05/30/against-the-singularity-hypothesis-part-5-bostrom-on-the-singularity/", "published_at": "2024-05-31T01:27:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcdb-6dd1-7196-8e81-c2713355b57f", "title": "Meta (Migration complete)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/05/30/meta-migration-complete/", "published_at": "2024-05-31T01:26:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcdb-6dd1-7196-8e81-c271338f9b8f", "title": "Harms (Part 2: Surveillance)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/05/17/harms-part-2-surveillance/", "published_at": "2024-05-17T14:53:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcdb-6dd1-7196-8e81-c271343b2311", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 16: Biorisk from LLMs, continued)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/05/03/exaggerating-the-risks-part-16-biorisk-from-llms-continued/", "published_at": "2024-05-03T13:25:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcdb-6dd1-7196-8e81-c27134c235a3", "title": "Papers I learned from (Part 3: Risk, non-identity, and extinction)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/04/19/papers-i-learned-from-part-3-risk-non-identity-and-extinction/", "published_at": "2024-04-19T18:42:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcdb-6dd1-7196-8e81-c2713573a43f", "title": "Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 4: Chalmers on the singularity)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/04/05/against-the-singularity-hypothesis-part-4-chalmers-on-the-singularity/", "published_at": "2024-04-05T01:38:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcdb-6dd1-7196-8e81-c27135efa7dd", "title": "Harms (Part 1: Distraction)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/03/22/harms-part-1-distraction/", "published_at": "2024-03-22T20:07:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb59-7320-9662-e2ffb23fceef", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 15: Biorisk from LLMs)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/03/09/exaggerating-the-risks-part-14-biorisk-from-llms/", "published_at": "2024-03-09T04:40:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317a9f5dfc", "title": "Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 3: Further doubts)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/02/23/against-the-singularity-hypothesis-part-3-further-doubts/", "published_at": "2024-02-23T17:36:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317afc3bc0", "title": "Meta (Whoops)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/02/17/meta-whoops/", "published_at": "2024-02-17T17:03:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317b3536b7", "title": "Papers I learned from (Part 2: Effective altruism, risk, and human extinction)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/02/09/papers-i-learned-from-part-2-effective-altruism-risk-and-human-extinction/", "published_at": "2024-02-09T15:44:28+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317bbfa78b", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 14: MacAskill on biorisk)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/01/26/exaggerating-the-risks-part-14-macaskill-on-biorisk/", "published_at": "2024-01-26T09:12:07+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317c1fc9b9", "title": "Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 2: Preliminary doubts)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2024/01/12/against-the-singularity-hypothesis-part-2-preliminary-doubts/", "published_at": "2024-01-12T15:33:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317cfb0319", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/12/29/exaggerating-the-risks-part-13-ord-on-biorisk/", "published_at": "2023-12-29T16:58:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317da270fe", "title": "Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 1: Introduction)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/12/15/against-the-singularity-hypothesis-part-1-introduction/", "published_at": "2023-12-15T16:29:55+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317de08260", "title": "Papers I learned from (Part 1: Time discounting, consistency and special obligations)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/12/01/papers-i-learned-from-part-1-time-discounting-consistency-and-special-obligations/", "published_at": "2023-12-01T18:38:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dce3-cb5a-71d5-8924-09317ead04c2", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 12: Millett and Snyder-Beattie on biorisk)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/11/18/exaggerating-the-risks-part-12-millett-and-snyder-beattie-on-biorisk/", "published_at": "2023-11-18T00:10:55+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04845eda59b2", "title": "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 5: Implications)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/11/03/mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-part-5-implications/", "published_at": "2023-11-03T22:45:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04845f09ebf4", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 11: Biorisk: Still more grounds for doubt)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/10/21/exaggerating-the-risks-part-11-biorisk-still-more-grounds-for-doubt/", "published_at": "2023-10-21T03:06:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04845f127746", "title": "Epistemics: (Part 6: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/10/07/epistemics-part-6-extraordinary-claims-require-extraordinary-evidence/", "published_at": "2023-10-07T05:36:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04845fad5e8d", "title": "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/09/22/mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-part-4-optimistic-population-dynamics/", "published_at": "2023-09-22T19:50:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-0484609c9736", "title": "The good it promises (Part 7: Crary continued)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/09/08/the-good-it-promises-part-7-crary-continued/", "published_at": "2023-09-08T05:25:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-048461105761", "title": "The good it promises (Part 6: Alice Crary)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/08/25/the-good-it-promises-part-6-alice-crary/", "published_at": "2023-08-25T12:41:48+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-048461bf4cbb", "title": "Meta: Posting less frequently", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/08/12/meta-posting-less-frequently/", "published_at": "2023-08-12T17:30:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04846245a775", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 10: Biorisk: More grounds for doubt)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/08/12/exaggerating-the-risks-part-10-biorisk-more-grounds-for-doubt/", "published_at": "2023-08-12T17:23:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04846299cb67", "title": "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 3: Population dynamics)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/08/05/mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-part-3-population-dynamics/", "published_at": "2023-08-05T14:05:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dceb-c182-7204-afab-04846340d769", "title": "Epistemics: (Part 5: The value of cost-effectiveness analysis)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/07/29/epistemics-part-5-the-value-of-cost-effectiveness-analysis/", "published_at": "2023-07-29T13:54:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a964-73f4-a175-cb6cb746863a", "title": "Epistemics: (Part 4: The fall of cost-effectiveness analysis)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/07/21/epistemics-part-4-the-fall-of-cost-effectiveness-analysis/", "published_at": "2023-07-21T21:10:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c231434c26", "title": "The good it promises (Part 5: de Coriolis et al.)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/07/15/the-good-it-promises-part-5-de-coriolis-et-al/", "published_at": "2023-07-15T14:47:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c2321d0452", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 9: Biorisk – Grounds for doubt)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/07/08/exaggerating-the-risks-part-9-biorisk-grounds-for-doubt/", "published_at": "2023-07-08T11:00:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c232fc711f", "title": "Meta: Funded!", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/07/07/meta-funded/", "published_at": "2023-07-07T20:40:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c2338eddd9", "title": "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 2: Ignoring background risk)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/06/30/mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-part-2-ignoring-background-risk/", "published_at": "2023-06-30T20:18:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c233f8b513", "title": "Epistemics: (Part 3: Peer review)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/06/24/epistemics-part-3-peer-review/", "published_at": "2023-06-23T23:27:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c2340afa37", "title": "Billionaire philanthropy: (Part 6: From efficiency to extravagance)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/06/17/billionaire-philanthropy-part-6-from-efficiency-to-extravagance/", "published_at": "2023-06-17T10:17:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c23419c989", "title": "The good it promises, the harm it does (Part 4: Lori Gruen)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/06/09/the-good-it-promises-the-harm-it-does-part-4-lori-gruen/", "published_at": "2023-06-09T21:38:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c23450976e", "title": "Exaggerating the risks (Part 8: Carlsmith wrap-up)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/06/03/exaggerating-the-risks-part-8-carlsmith-wrap-up/", "published_at": "2023-06-03T12:01:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0dcfa-a965-73c4-83b2-90c2345dba43", "title": "Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk)", "url": "https://reflectivealtruism.com/2023/05/27/mistakes-in-the-moral-mathematics-of-existential-risk-part-1-introduction-and-cumulative-risk/", "published_at": "2023-05-27T00:15:23+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog

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2026

Community (Part 1: From FTX to Manifund)original ↗

13 Sept 2026

Deep Utopia (Part 1: Monday)original ↗

4 Sept 2026

Revisiting the shutdown problem (Part 5: Implications)original ↗

21 Aug 2026

Getting it right (Part 5: Fiscal responsibility)original ↗

7 Aug 2026

Revisiting the shutdown problem (Part 4: Krakovna and Kramar)original ↗

24 Jul 2026

Revisiting the shutdown problem (Part 3: Thornley)original ↗

10 Jul 2026

Revisiting the shutdown problem (Part 2: Informal arguments)original ↗

26 Jun 2026

Revisiting the shutdown problem (Part 1: Introduction)original ↗

12 Jun 2026

Fanaticism (Part 4: Problems for anti-fanatical decision theories)original ↗

29 May 2026

Fanaticism (Part 3: Arguments for fanaticism)original ↗

15 May 2026

Fanaticism (Part 2: Further reasons for doubt)original ↗

1 May 2026

Fanaticism (Part 1: Introduction)original ↗

17 Apr 2026

If anyone builds it, everyone dies (Part 5: Solutions)original ↗

3 Apr 2026

Getting it right (Part 4: Criticism)original ↗

20 Mar 2026

If anyone builds it, everyone dies (Part 4: We would lose)original ↗

6 Mar 2026

Papers I learned from (Part 8: Somebody should do something)original ↗

20 Feb 2026

If anyone builds it, everyone dies (Part 3: Remaining arguments for misalignment)original ↗

6 Feb 2026

Meta (Alternative blog reader)original ↗

23 Jan 2026

If anyone builds it, everyone dies (Part 2: Evolutionary mismatch)original ↗

23 Jan 2026

If anyone builds it, everyone dies (Part 1: Introduction and cruxes)original ↗

9 Jan 2026

2025

Epistemics (Part 10: The nontrivial probability gambit)original ↗

26 Dec 2025

Instrumental convergence and power-seeking (Part 4: Conclusion)original ↗

12 Dec 2025

Getting it right (Part 3: Ambition)original ↗

28 Nov 2025

Harms (Part 5: Supporting frontier AI companies)original ↗

14 Nov 2025

Exaggerating the risks (Part 22: AI 2027 recap)original ↗

31 Oct 2025

Exaggerating the risks (Part 21: AI 2027 takeoff forecast)original ↗

17 Oct 2025

Instrumental convergence and power-seeking (Part 3: Turner et al.)original ↗

4 Oct 2025

Human biodiversity (Part 9: EA Forum, continued)original ↗

19 Sept 2025

Papers I learned from (Part 7: Essays on longtermism)original ↗

5 Sept 2025

Papers I learned from (Part 6: A timing problem for instrumental convergence)original ↗

22 Aug 2025

Exaggerating the risks (Part 20: AI 2027 timelines forecast, benchmarks and gaps)original ↗

8 Aug 2025

Meta (Audio updates)original ↗

25 Jul 2025

Exaggerating the risks (Part 19: AI 2027 timelines forecast, time horizon extension)original ↗

25 Jul 2025

Exaggerating the risks (Part 18: Introduction to AI 2027)original ↗

11 Jul 2025

Instrumental convergence and power-seeking (Part 2: Benson-Tilsen and Soares)original ↗

27 Jun 2025

Human biodiversity (Part 8: EA Forum)original ↗

13 Jun 2025

Getting it right (Part 2: Global health)original ↗

30 May 2025

Instrumental convergence and power-seeking (Part 1: Introduction)original ↗

16 May 2025

The scope of longtermism (Part 5: A case study – Existential risk)original ↗

2 May 2025

Human Biodiversity (Part 7: LessWrong)original ↗

18 Apr 2025

Getting it right (Part 1: Altruism)original ↗

4 Apr 2025

Papers I learned from (Part 5: Language agents reduce the risk of existential catastrophe)original ↗

21 Mar 2025

The scope of longtermism (Part 4: Unawareness)original ↗

7 Mar 2025

Human biodiversity (Part 6: The Motte)original ↗

21 Feb 2025

Papers I learned from (Part 4: Why AI systems may not evolve selfishness)original ↗

7 Feb 2025

Epistemics (Part 9: Ironic authenticity)original ↗

24 Jan 2025

Billionaire philanthropy (Part 8: Discretion continued)original ↗

10 Jan 2025

2024

Human biodiversity (Part 5: The people of Alexander)original ↗

27 Dec 2024

The scope of longtermism (Part 3: Washing out)original ↗

12 Dec 2024

Epistemics (Part 8: Two types of decoupling)original ↗

29 Nov 2024

Billionaire philanthropy (Part 7: Donor discretion)original ↗

15 Nov 2024

Human biodiversity (Part 4: Astral Codex Ten)original ↗

1 Nov 2024

The scope of longtermism (Part 2: Rapid diminution)original ↗

18 Oct 2024

Epistemics (Part 7: Authority)original ↗

4 Oct 2024

Harms (Part 4: Inequality)original ↗

20 Sept 2024

The scope of longtermism (Part 1: Introduction)original ↗

6 Sept 2024

Human biodiversity (Part 3: Richard Hanania)original ↗

23 Aug 2024

Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 6: Implications)original ↗

9 Aug 2024

Exaggerating the risks (Part 17: Biorisk, taking stock)original ↗

26 Jul 2024

Harms (Part 3: Delay)original ↗

12 Jul 2024

Human biodiversity (Part 2: Manifest)original ↗

28 Jun 2024

Meta: Funding original ↗

20 Jun 2024

Human biodiversity (Part 1: Introduction)original ↗

14 Jun 2024

Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 5: Bostrom on the singularity)original ↗

31 May 2024

Meta (Migration complete)original ↗

31 May 2024

Harms (Part 2: Surveillance)original ↗

17 May 2024

Exaggerating the risks (Part 16: Biorisk from LLMs, continued)original ↗

3 May 2024

Papers I learned from (Part 3: Risk, non-identity, and extinction)original ↗

19 Apr 2024

Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 4: Chalmers on the singularity)original ↗

5 Apr 2024

Harms (Part 1: Distraction)original ↗

22 Mar 2024

Exaggerating the risks (Part 15: Biorisk from LLMs)original ↗

9 Mar 2024

Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 3: Further doubts)original ↗

23 Feb 2024

Meta (Whoops)original ↗

17 Feb 2024

Papers I learned from (Part 2: Effective altruism, risk, and human extinction)original ↗

9 Feb 2024

Exaggerating the risks (Part 14: MacAskill on biorisk)original ↗

26 Jan 2024

Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 2: Preliminary doubts)original ↗

12 Jan 2024

2023

Exaggerating the risks (Part 13: Ord on Biorisk)original ↗

29 Dec 2023

Against the singularity hypothesis (Part 1: Introduction)original ↗

15 Dec 2023

Papers I learned from (Part 1: Time discounting, consistency and special obligations)original ↗

1 Dec 2023

Exaggerating the risks (Part 12: Millett and Snyder-Beattie on biorisk)original ↗

18 Nov 2023

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 5: Implications)original ↗

3 Nov 2023

Exaggerating the risks (Part 11: Biorisk: Still more grounds for doubt)original ↗

21 Oct 2023

Epistemics: (Part 6: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence)original ↗

7 Oct 2023

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 4: Optimistic population dynamics)original ↗

22 Sept 2023

The good it promises (Part 7: Crary continued)original ↗

8 Sept 2023

The good it promises (Part 6: Alice Crary)original ↗

25 Aug 2023

Meta: Posting less frequently original ↗

12 Aug 2023

Exaggerating the risks (Part 10: Biorisk: More grounds for doubt)original ↗

12 Aug 2023

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 3: Population dynamics)original ↗

5 Aug 2023

Epistemics: (Part 5: The value of cost-effectiveness analysis)original ↗

29 Jul 2023

Epistemics: (Part 4: The fall of cost-effectiveness analysis)original ↗

21 Jul 2023

The good it promises (Part 5: de Coriolis et al.)original ↗

15 Jul 2023

Exaggerating the risks (Part 9: Biorisk – Grounds for doubt)original ↗

8 Jul 2023

Meta: Funded!original ↗

7 Jul 2023

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 2: Ignoring background risk)original ↗

30 Jun 2023

Epistemics: (Part 3: Peer review)original ↗

23 Jun 2023

Billionaire philanthropy: (Part 6: From efficiency to extravagance)original ↗

17 Jun 2023

The good it promises, the harm it does (Part 4: Lori Gruen)original ↗

9 Jun 2023

Exaggerating the risks (Part 8: Carlsmith wrap-up)original ↗

3 Jun 2023

Mistakes in the moral mathematics of existential risk (Part 1: Introduction and cumulative risk)original ↗

27 May 2023