Record · corpus.blog/posts/01a0e6f2-8afd-7167-bbfe-1f5c41e64b3f

Shortening AGI timelines: a review of expert forecasts

benjamintodd.substack.com · published 9 April 2025

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1blogs citing

First cited: 16 Jun 2026
Most recent: 16 Jun 2026
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Links from this post: 20
Words captured: 1,410

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conspicuouscognition.com

What If Artificial Intelligence Progress Explodes? (with Benjamin Todd) Read at the source ↗

16 Jun 2026

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https://80000hours.org/agi/guide/when-will-agi-arrive/

80000hours.org

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3C3I!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72c97509-d713-4cf6-8e65-2d61ee6bc314_2064x1489.png

substackcdn.com

https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

aiimpacts.org

https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/

80000hours.org

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cByD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8958daff-a931-4c33-b095-39df4baa2747_1052x1128.png

substackcdn.com

http://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843

arxiv.org

"Long" timelines to advanced AI have gotten crazy short Read at the source ↗

helentoner.substack.com

How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines? Read at the source ↗

aiimpacts.org

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023

astralcodexten.com

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/

metaculus.com

https://forecastingresearch.org/news/results-from-the-2022-existential-risk-persuasion-tournament

forecastingresearch.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster

en.wikipedia.org

https://samotsvety.org/

samotsvety.org

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ByBBqwRXWqX5m9erL/update-to-samotsvety-agi-timelines

forum.effectivealtruism.org

https://epoch.ai/blog/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligence-timelines

epoch.ai

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EG9xDM8YRz4JN4wMN/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts

forum.effectivealtruism.org

https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast

ai-2027.com

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4q9k!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F918b0bb3-8da1-4eaf-8f18-7360490efa85_563x800.png

substackcdn.com

https://80000hours.org/agi/guide/why-agi-could-be-here-by-2028/

80000hours.org

https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/through-a-glass-darkly

asteriskmag.com