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Explanations for that shocking 2% shift

Andrew Gelman · published 9 November 2016

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A 2% swing: The poll-based forecast did fine (on average) in blue states; they blew it in the red states Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Different election forecasts not so different Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Election forecasting updating error: We ignored correlations in some of our data, thus producing illusory precision in our inferences Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/11/08/election-2016-turnout-records-trump-clinton/93498784/

usatoday.com

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/9/13573904/voter-turnout-2016-donald-trump

vox.com

https://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

cnn.com

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/11/6/13540646/poll-shifts-misleading-clinton-leads-trump

vox.com

Trump +1 in Florida; or, a quick comment on that “5 groups analyze the same poll” exercise Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu