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How to think about extremely unlikely events (such as Biden winning Alabama, Trump winning California, or Biden winning Ohio but losing the election)?

Andrew Gelman · published 1 October 2020

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https://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/jdm200907b.pdf

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Problem of the between-state correlations in the Fivethirtyeight election forecast Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts Read at the source ↗

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/natpop-scaled.jpeg

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ec-scaled.jpeg

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

https://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/decisive2.pdf

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https://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/gelmankatzbafumi.pdf

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https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

projects.economist.com