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4th down update and my own cognitive illusion
Andrew Gelman · published 22 November 2022
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Going for it on 4th down: What’s striking is not so much that we were wrong, but that we had so little imagination that we didn’t even consider the possibility that we might be wrong. (I wonder what Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel Kahneman, Josh “hot hand” Miller, and other experts on cognitive illusions think about this one.) Read at the source ↗