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When does it make sense to talk about LLMs having beliefs?

Andrew Gelman · published 15 August 2025

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Read the post at statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Wayback capture
1blogs citing
First cited
7 Apr 2026
Most recent
7 Apr 2026
Rank this month
not ranked
Links from this post
27
Words captured
1,492

Cited by

Blog
In the post
Date
muddy.jprs.me
What is a public opinion poll without the public? Read at the source ↗
7 Apr 2026

Links from this post

Link
Host
Belief elicitation in theory versus practice Read at the source ↗
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.01681
arxiv.org
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-025-00986-z
nature.com
LLMs as behavioral study participants Read at the source ↗
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Better and worse ways to mix human and LLM responses in behavioral research (but you still have to figure what you’re measuring) Read at the source ↗
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5066286
papers.ssrn.com
https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.18563
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.09620
arxiv.org
https://samim.io/dl/Predicting%20results%20of%20social%20science%20experiments%20using%20large%20language%20models.pdf
samim.io
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32381/w32381.pdf
nber.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.10095
arxiv.org
https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publications/automated-but-risky-game/
digitaleconomy.stanford.edu
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/480292E0F3FB98E2977C0B2E8EAC005D/S1930297500004940a.pdf/lay_understanding_of_probability_distributions.pdf
cambridge.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.21030
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/html/2505.15918v1?utm_source=chatgpt.com
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2207.05221
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.01860
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.03827
arxiv.org
https://aclanthology.org/D19-1275.pdf
aclanthology.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.13734
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.03341
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.06681
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.11447
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.00915
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.08708
arxiv.org
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-03553-w
nature.com
https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.05068v2
arxiv.org