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NOAA's hurricane outlook misses one way: it underforecasts big seasons

randalolson.com · published 19 May 2026

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https://www.randalolson.com/beautiful-charts-with-ai

randalolson.com

https://www.randalolson.com/assets/2026/05/noaa-hurricane-outlook-vs-reality.png

randalolson.com

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2005/May/hurricane.html

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/hurrsummary_2005.pdf

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2020/May/hurricane.shtml

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/2020-north-atlantic-hurricane-season-shatters-records

ncei.noaa.gov

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-updates-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

nesdis.noaa.gov

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2006/May/hurricane.shtml

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATL2006Verification.pdf

tropicalstormrisk.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season

en.wikipedia.org

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

climate.gov

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/167939.pdf

ams.confex.com

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-04.pdf

tropical.colostate.edu

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-predicting-somewhat-below-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-for-2026/

engr.source.colostate.edu

https://www.noaa.gov/media-advisory/noaa-to-announce-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

noaa.gov

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.html

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

nhc.noaa.gov

https://www.randalolson.com/assets/2026/05/noaa-hurricane-outlook-vs-reality.csv

randalolson.com