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Understanding Subjective Probabilities

outsidetheasylum.blog · published 10 December 2023

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https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sMjcjnnpoAQCcedL2/when-pooling-forecasts-use-the-geometric-mean-of-odds
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https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=o+%2F+%28o+%2B+1%29%2C+where+o+%3D+sqrt%28%28a+%2F+%281+-+a%29%29+*+%28b+%2F+%281+-+b%29%29%29%2C+where+a+%3D+0.1+and+b+%3D+0.2
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