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What is the expected value of a decisive vote?

Joe Antognini · published 1 November 2020

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/10/19/pennsylvania-nears-9-million-voters-at-registration-deadline/
philadelphia.cbslocal.com
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/
fivethirtyeight.com
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/2020-election-to-near-11-billion-in-total-spending-smashing-records
opensecrets.org
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article245571555.html
sacbee.com
https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/understanding-public-funding-presidential-elections/presidential-spending-limits-2020/
fec.gov
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html
realclearpolitics.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjugate_prior
en.wikipedia.org
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_function
en.wikipedia.org
https://github.com/joe-antognini/joe-antognini.github.io/blob/master/assets/posts/decisive-vote/DecisiveVote.ipynb
github.com
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction
en.wikipedia.org
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state
en.wikipedia.org