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How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines?

bayes.net · published 16 December 2024

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How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines?
aiimpacts.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807
arxiv.org
https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai
wiki.aiimpacts.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843
arxiv.org
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpolation
en.wikipedia.org
https://makedistribution.com/
makedistribution.com
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807
arxiv.org
https://github.com/tadamcz/espai
github.com
https://compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/phc3.12964
compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.21572
arxiv.org
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524005584
sciencedirect.com
https://www.bu.edu/dbi/files/2024/08/FelinHolwegAug2024_SSRN.pdf
bu.edu
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/aisy.202300740
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
https://journals.vilniustech.lt/index.php/TEDE/article/view/21525
journals.vilniustech.lt
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4737265
papers.ssrn.com
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0736585324000911
sciencedirect.com
https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.01808
arxiv.org
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10598190/
ieeexplore.ieee.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.17347
arxiv.org
https://basilhalperin.com/papers/agi_emh.pdf
basilhalperin.com
https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/AIES/article/view/31737
ojs.aaai.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.01860
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.03092
arxiv.org
https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/Michael-T.-Dale-and-Bradford-Saad-Evolutionary-debunking-and-value-alignment.pdf
globalprioritiesinstitute.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.17398
arxiv.org
https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.17438
arxiv.org
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/malicious-use-of-ai-and-challenges-to-psychological-security-future-risks/
russiancouncil.ru
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10685842/
ieeexplore.ieee.org