41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a0d47c-32e5-72b7-a4df-9dc523394f37", "title": "Swarm Scaling", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/swarm-scaling", "published_at": "2026-09-21T17:53:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bb8bd4fd", "title": "Curating the World", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/curating-the-world", "published_at": "2026-09-06T20:04:09+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bb9a65fb", "title": "Mathematics is Much More than Proof", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/mathematics-is-more-than-proof", "published_at": "2026-08-23T12:48:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bc62db28", "title": "Broad Timelines", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/broad-timelines", "published_at": "2026-03-09T16:48:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bc9e4ff8", "title": "Hazard Rates for AI Agents Decline as a Task Goes On", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/hazard-rates-for-ai-agents-decline", "published_at": "2026-02-04T17:35:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bd2bb0d3", "title": "Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/hourly-costs-for-ai-agents", "published_at": "2025-12-22T18:30:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bdf3e8bc", "title": "How Well Does RL Scale?", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/how-well-does-rl-scale", "published_at": "2025-10-20T17:23:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8be241ac1", "title": "Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/mostly-inference-scaling", "published_at": "2025-10-03T17:17:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bf01c933", "title": "The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/inefficiency-of-reinforcement-learning", "published_at": "2025-09-19T09:53:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bf3335b5", "title": "Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/half-life", "published_at": "2025-05-07T10:54:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8bf94d12d", "title": "Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/inference-scaling-reshapes-ai-governance", "published_at": "2025-02-12T12:31:07+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c00fe7ff", "title": "Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/inference-scaling-and-the-log-x-chart", "published_at": "2025-01-21T09:44:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c0bbfcba", "title": "The Scaling Paradox", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/the-scaling-paradox", "published_at": "2025-01-13T15:40:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c1156945", "title": "The Precipice Revisited", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/the-precipice-revisited", "published_at": "2024-07-12T16:28:42+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c1bf8207", "title": "On the Value of Advancing Progress", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/progress", "published_at": "2024-06-29T16:59:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c1d48a87", "title": "Robust Longterm Comparisons", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/robust-longterm-comparisons", "published_at": "2024-05-15T13:50:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c1feeaeb", "title": "The timing of labour aimed at reducing existential risk", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/timing-of-labour", "published_at": "2023-03-26T16:14:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c2e6f21f", "title": "A Child's Plaything", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/a-childs-plaything", "published_at": "2023-03-17T14:39:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c34e00a1", "title": "Remembering Peter Eckersley", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/remembering-peter-eckersley", "published_at": "2023-03-14T12:21:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08c56-b9a1-73d0-a0b6-fce8c40f9fdc", "title": "Casting the Decisive Vote", "url": "https://www.tobyord.com/writing/decisive-vote", "published_at": "2021-07-23T11:06:20+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog

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2026

Swarm Scaling original ↗

21 Sept 2026

Curating the World original ↗

6 Sept 2026

Mathematics is Much More than Proof original ↗

23 Aug 2026

Broad Timelines original ↗

9 Mar 2026

Hazard Rates for AI Agents Decline as a Task Goes On original ↗

4 Feb 2026

2025

Are the Costs of AI Agents Also Rising Exponentially?original ↗

22 Dec 2025

How Well Does RL Scale?original ↗

20 Oct 2025

Evidence that Recent AI Gains are Mostly from Inference-Scaling original ↗

3 Oct 2025

The Extreme Inefficiency of RL for Frontier Models original ↗

19 Sept 2025

Is there a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?original ↗

7 May 2025

Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance original ↗

12 Feb 2025

Inference Scaling and the Log-x Chart original ↗

21 Jan 2025

The Scaling Paradox original ↗

13 Jan 2025

2024

The Precipice Revisited original ↗

12 Jul 2024

On the Value of Advancing Progress original ↗

29 Jun 2024

Robust Longterm Comparisons original ↗

15 May 2024

2023

The timing of labour aimed at reducing existential risk original ↗

26 Mar 2023

A Child's Plaything original ↗

17 Mar 2023

Remembering Peter Eckersley original ↗

14 Mar 2023

2021

Casting the Decisive Vote original ↗

23 Jul 2021