Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2018
Surprise-hacking: “the narrative of blindness and illusion sells, and therefore continues to be the central thesis of popular books written by psychologists and cognitive scientists”original ↗
16 Dec 2018
How we should they carry out repeated cross-validation? They would like a third expert opinion…”original ↗
15 Dec 2018
Oh, I hate it when work is criticized (or, in this case, fails in attempted replications) and then the original researchers don’t even consider the possibility that maybe in their original work they were inadvertently just finding patterns in noise.original ↗
13 Dec 2018
Should we be concerned about MRP estimates being used in later analyses? Maybe. I recommend checking using fake-data simulation.original ↗
9 Dec 2018
7 Dec 2018
6 Dec 2018
“Statistical insights into public opinion and politics” (my talk for the Columbia Data Science Society this Wed 9pm)original ↗
4 Dec 2018
Bayes, statistics, and reproducibility: “Many serious problems with statistics in practice arise from Bayesian inference that is not Bayesian enough, or frequentist evaluation that is not frequentist enough, in both cases using replication distributions that do not make scientific sense or do not reflect the actual procedures being performed on the data.”original ↗
4 Dec 2018
2 Dec 2018
29 Nov 2018
27 Nov 2018
These 3 problems destroy many clinical trials (in context of some papers on problems with non-inferiority trials, or problems with clinical trials in general)original ↗
25 Nov 2018
Hey! There are mathematicians out there who’ve never read Proofs and Refutations. Whassup with that??original ↗
23 Nov 2018
“She also observed that results from smaller studies conducted by NGOs – often pilot studies – would often look promising. But when governments tried to implement scaled-up versions of those programs, their performance would drop considerably.”original ↗
22 Nov 2018
20 Nov 2018
19 Nov 2018
Hey, check this out: Columbia’s Data Science Institute is hiring research scientists and postdocs!original ↗
16 Nov 2018
15 Nov 2018
14 Nov 2018
“Law professor Alan Dershowitz’s new book claims that political differences have lately been criminalized in the United States. He has it wrong. Instead, the orderly enforcement of the law has, ludicrously, been framed as political.”original ↗
12 Nov 2018
11 Nov 2018
Matching (and discarding non-matches) to deal with lack of complete overlap, then regression to adjust for imbalance between treatment and control groupsoriginal ↗
10 Nov 2018
10 Nov 2018
Melanie Mitchell says, “As someone who has worked in A.I. for decades, I’ve witnessed the failure of similar predictions of imminent human-level A.I., and I’m certain these latest forecasts will fall short as well. “original ↗
8 Nov 2018
Watch out for naively (because implicitly based on flat-prior) Bayesian statements based on classical confidence intervals! (Comptroller of the Currency edition)original ↗
8 Nov 2018
“35. What differentiates solitary confinement, county jail and house arrest” and 70 othersoriginal ↗
7 Nov 2018
Postdocs and Research fellows for combining probabilistic programming, simulators and interactive AIoriginal ↗
6 Nov 2018
6 Nov 2018
5 Nov 2018
Cornell prof (but not the pizzagate guy!) has one quick trick to getting 1700 peer reviewed publications on your CVoriginal ↗
4 Nov 2018
“We are reluctant to engage in post hoc speculation about this unexpected result, but it does not clearly support our hypothesis”original ↗
3 Nov 2018
Facial feedback: “These findings suggest that minute differences in the experimental protocol might lead to theoretically meaningful changes in the outcomes.”original ↗
1 Nov 2018
24 Oct 2018
A study fails to replicate, but it continues to get referenced as if it had no problems. Communication channels are blocked.original ↗
24 Oct 2018
What to think about this new study which says that you should limit your alcohol to 5 drinks a week?original ↗
23 Oct 2018
22 Oct 2018
An actual quote from a paper published in a medical journal: “The data, analytic methods, and study materials will not be made available to other researchers for purposes of reproducing the results or replicating the procedure.”original ↗
19 Oct 2018
Young Investigator Special Competition for Time-Sharing Experiment for the Social Sciencesoriginal ↗
19 Oct 2018
18 Oct 2018
17 Oct 2018
17 Oct 2018
He had a sudden cardiac arrest. How does this change the probability that he has a particular genetic condition?original ↗
14 Oct 2018
Limitations of “Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection”original ↗
12 Oct 2018
Why are functional programming languages so popular in the programming languages community?original ↗
11 Oct 2018
10 Oct 2018
6 Oct 2018
5 Oct 2018