Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/posts
Andrew Gelman
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
2023
27 Dec 2023
In judo, before you learn the cool moves, you first have to learn how to fall. Maybe we should be training researchers the same way: first learn how things can go wrong, and only when you get that lesson down do you learn the fancy stuff.original ↗
25 Dec 2023
Bayesians moving from defense to offense: “I really think it’s kind of irresponsible now not to use the information from all those thousands of medical trials that came before. Is that very radical?”original ↗
23 Dec 2023
Statistical Practice as Scientific Exploration (my talk on 4 Mar 2024 at the Royal Society conference on the promises and pitfalls of preregistration)original ↗
21 Dec 2023
Source of the line, “One should always beat a dead horse because the horse is never really dead”original ↗
20 Dec 2023
19 Dec 2023
Suppose you realize that a paper on an important topic, with thousands of citations, is fatally flawed? Where should the correction be published?original ↗
18 Dec 2023
17 Dec 2023
“Has the replication crisis been a long series of conversations that haven’t influenced publishing and research practices much if at all?”original ↗
16 Dec 2023
15 Dec 2023
AI bus route fail: Typically the most important thing is not how you do the optimization but rather what you decide to optimize.original ↗
14 Dec 2023
This empirical paper has been cited 1616 times but I don’t find it convincing. There’s no single fatal flaw, but the evidence does not seem so clear. How to think about this sort of thing? What to do? First, accept that evidence might not all go in one direction. Second, make lots of graphs. Also, an amusing story about how this paper is getting cited nowadays.original ↗
13 Dec 2023
10 Dec 2023
Using simulation from the null hypothesis to study statistical artifacts (ivermectin edition)original ↗
10 Dec 2023
7 Dec 2023
4 Dec 2023
“Other than when he treated Steve Jobs, Agus, 58, had never been told anything besides that he’s awesome . . .”original ↗
3 Dec 2023
On a proposal to scale confidence intervals so that their overlap can be more easily interpretedoriginal ↗
2 Dec 2023
27 Nov 2023
Here are just some of the factors that have been published in the social priming and related literatures as having large effects on behavior.original ↗
25 Nov 2023
Zipf’s law and Heaps’s law. Also, when is big as bad as infinity? And why unit roots aren’t all that.original ↗
23 Nov 2023
Hey, check this out! Here’s how to read and then rewrite the title and abstract of a paper.original ↗
17 Nov 2023
Hey! Here are some amazing articles by George Box from around 1990. Also there’s some mysterious controversy regarding his center at the University of Wisconsin.original ↗
10 Nov 2023
“You need 16 times the sample size to estimate an interaction than to estimate a main effect,” explainedoriginal ↗
9 Nov 2023
You can tell that this Bret guy never tried driving on the George Washington Bridge on rush houroriginal ↗
5 Nov 2023
If someone were to sneak into Add Health HQ and replace the data there with random numbers and not tell anyone, . . . the numbers of papers publishing from Ad Health data would not change.original ↗
4 Nov 2023
4 Nov 2023
2 Nov 2023
Hydrology Corner: How to compare outputs from two models, one Bayesian and one non-Bayesian?original ↗
31 Oct 2023
On a really bad paper on birth month and autism (and why there’s value in taking a look at a clear case of bad research, even if it’s obscure and from many years ago)original ↗
30 Oct 2023
Simulations of measurement error and the replication crisis: Maybe Loken and I have a mistake in our paper?original ↗
29 Oct 2023
We were gonna submit something to Nature Communications, but then we found out they were charging $6290 for publication. For that amount of money, we could afford 37% of an invitation to a conference featuring Grover Norquist, Gray Davis, and a rabbi, or 1/160th of the naming rights for a sleep center at the University of California, or 4735 Jamaican beef patties.original ↗
28 Oct 2023
26 Oct 2023
25 Oct 2023
Springboards to overconfidence: How can we avoid . . .? (following up on our discussion of synthetic controls analysis)original ↗
25 Oct 2023
Postdoc on Bayesian methodological and applied work! To optimize patient care! Using Stan! In North Carolina!original ↗
24 Oct 2023
24 Oct 2023
21 Oct 2023
Moving from “admit your mistakes” to accepting the inevitability of mistakes and their fractal natureoriginal ↗
20 Oct 2023
“His continued strength in the party is mostly the result of Republican elites’ reluctance to challenge him, which is a mixture of genuine support and exaggerated ideas about his strength among Republican voters.”original ↗
19 Oct 2023
Academia corner: New candidate for American Statistical Association’s Founders Award, Enduring Contribution Award from the American Political Science Association, and Edge Foundation just droppedoriginal ↗
18 Oct 2023
16 Oct 2023
A successful example of “adversarial collaboration.” When does this approach work and when does it not?original ↗
16 Oct 2023
“I am a junior undergraduate student majoring in linguistics and have recently started conducting brain imaging studies. . . .”original ↗
15 Oct 2023
14 Oct 2023
13 Oct 2023