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predictandprofit.io

predictandprofit.io

2026

Brier Score Explained: How to Measure If Your Probabilistic Model Actually Worksoriginal ↗
27 Aug 2026
The Honest Post-Mortem: Why We're Publishing Our Failures Publiclyoriginal ↗
26 Aug 2026
When to Stop Building and Start Using What Already Existsoriginal ↗
25 Aug 2026
Why We Audit Our Own Bot Instead of Trusting the P&Loriginal ↗
24 Aug 2026
The Most Dangerous Bugs Are the Ones That Don't Throw Errorsoriginal ↗
23 Aug 2026
NOAA's National Blend of Models: What It Is and Why We Switched to Itoriginal ↗
22 Aug 2026
Probability Calibration for Binary Markets: Why 98% Confidence Should Scare Youoriginal ↗
21 Aug 2026
Visualizing Trade Timestamps Against DST Transitions: The Chart That Revealed the Bugoriginal ↗
20 Aug 2026
How to Query Kalshi's Metadata API for Correct Settlement Specificationsoriginal ↗
19 Aug 2026
49 New Automated Tests: How We Prevent the Same Bugs from Coming Backoriginal ↗
18 Aug 2026
Rebuilt and Undergoing Validation: Where the Weather Bot Stands in July 2026original ↗
17 Aug 2026
Seven Defects in Four Months: What We Found When We Audited the Weather Botoriginal ↗
16 Aug 2026
The Market Was Right: How Kalshi Priced Our Trades to Within One Percentage Pointoriginal ↗
15 Aug 2026
Why We Replaced Our Custom Ensemble with NOAA's National Blend of Modelsoriginal ↗
14 Aug 2026
Confident and Wrong: Why Our Model's High-Confidence Trades Lost Moneyoriginal ↗
13 Aug 2026
Chicago Is Not O'Hare: The Settlement Station Mapping Mistakeoriginal ↗
12 Aug 2026
We Audited 112 Trades and Found Our Model Had No Skilloriginal ↗
11 Aug 2026
We Turned Down Google's AI Weather Modeloriginal ↗
6 Aug 2026
The Daylight Saving Time Bug That Broke My Weather Bot for 8 Monthsoriginal ↗
30 Jul 2026
Building in Public at 60: What Nobody Tells You About Starting Lateoriginal ↗
29 Jun 2026
Polymarket vs Kalshi: An Honest Comparison for Algo Traders in 2026original ↗
28 Jun 2026
The PRD That Was Obsolete Before the Sprint Startedoriginal ↗
27 Jun 2026
Why Binary Contracts Are Actually Easier to Model Than Stocksoriginal ↗
26 Jun 2026
Kronos: What NVIDIA's 12-Billion-Candlestick Foundation Model Actually Is (And Isn't)original ↗
25 Jun 2026
The Bug That Made My Bot Blind to Its Own Positionsoriginal ↗
24 Jun 2026
psycopg2 vs SQLAlchemy: Which One Should Your Trading Bot Use?original ↗
22 Jun 2026
Nginx as a Reverse Proxy: The 20-Line Config That Runs My Production Siteoriginal ↗
21 Jun 2026
The Psychology of Losing Trades: What 9 Months of Automated Trading Taught Me About Detachmentoriginal ↗
20 Jun 2026
Git History as a Debug Tool: How I Found a Two-Week-Old Bug Using git bisectoriginal ↗
19 Jun 2026
Why I Stopped Asking for Permission to Automate My Own Joboriginal ↗
18 Jun 2026
Cron Jobs Are the Most Underrated Automation Tool in a Solo Builder's Stackoriginal ↗
17 Jun 2026
ECMWF AIFS: The AI Forecast Model That's Quietly Beating the Physics Modelsoriginal ↗
16 Jun 2026
Why I Added 62 Unit Tests to a Bot I Already Trustedoriginal ↗
15 Jun 2026
How to Run Python Scripts on a Schedule Without Cron Breaking Everythingoriginal ↗
14 Jun 2026
ECMWF vs GFS: Which Weather Model Is Actually More Accurate for Kalshi Trading?original ↗
13 Jun 2026
Five Signals Are Better Than One: Inside the Econ Bot's Multi-Source Nowcastoriginal ↗
12 Jun 2026
The Architecture Review That Took Longer Than Building the Featureoriginal ↗
11 Jun 2026
PM2: The Process Manager That Keeps My Bots Running While I Sleeporiginal ↗
10 Jun 2026
Regime Change Detection: How the Econ Bot Knows When the Market Has Shiftedoriginal ↗
9 Jun 2026
GitHub Actions from Scratch: The Deployment Pipeline I Wish I'd Had in Corporateoriginal ↗
8 Jun 2026
What the Kalshi Order Book Actually Looks Like at 2am (And Why That Matters)original ↗
7 Jun 2026
How I Auto-Generate This Blog With a $6 VPS, a Cron Job, and the Anthropic APIoriginal ↗
6 Jun 2026
nvm, Node Version Hell, and Why I Always Run `nvm alias default 18` Firstoriginal ↗
5 Jun 2026
How I Backfill Missing Settlement Data from the Kalshi APIoriginal ↗
4 Jun 2026
What Gumroad Actually Pays Out (And What They Don't Tell You About Fees)original ↗
3 Jun 2026
Environment Variables, Secrets, and .env Files: How I Manage API Keys Across Three Serversoriginal ↗
2 Jun 2026
Shipping a SQLite Bot to Customers When You Run PostgreSQL in Prodoriginal ↗
1 Jun 2026
Reddit Is Still the Best Free Marketing Channel for Technical Products in 2026original ↗
31 May 2026
AWS S3 as a Free Weather Data Pipeline: How NOAA Publishes Forecast Data Without Rate Limitsoriginal ↗
30 May 2026
Why I Use an LLC to Sell Software (And What It Actually Costs to Set One Up)original ↗
29 May 2026
The xarray Truthiness Bug That Crashed My Weather Bot Silentlyoriginal ↗
28 May 2026
Auto-Close on Regime Change: The Feature I Was Afraid to Shiporiginal ↗
27 May 2026
Building a Dead Simple Health Check for a Headless Python Botoriginal ↗
27 May 2026
How I Use Git as a Deployment System (And Why It Works Perfectly for Solo Projects)original ↗
25 May 2026
Tax Implications of Prediction Market Trading: What I Learned the Hard Wayoriginal ↗
24 May 2026
VPS vs Managed Hosting: Why I Run Everything on a $6 RackNerd Boxoriginal ↗
23 May 2026
Postgres on a $6 VPS: The Setup That Runs Two Live Trading Botsoriginal ↗
22 May 2026
Thirty Years of Being the Smartest Person in the Meeting Who Couldn't Change Anythingoriginal ↗
21 May 2026
My First Product Launch: What I Spent, What I Made, and What I'd Do Differentlyoriginal ↗
20 May 2026
The Difference Between a Side Project and a Product (I Learned It the Hard Way)original ↗
19 May 2026
NOAA's GraphCast Goes Operational: What It Means for Weather Trading Botsoriginal ↗
18 May 2026
Python Logging Done Right: The Setup That Tells You Exactly What Your Bot Didoriginal ↗
17 May 2026
April 2026 CPI: What the Cleveland Fed Nowcast Got Right (And Wrong)original ↗
16 May 2026
Predict & Profit v2.2: The Reliability Releaseoriginal ↗
16 May 2026
The Layoff That Came on a Teams Calloriginal ↗
12 May 2026
Stack Ranking Destroyed the Best Team I Ever Worked Onoriginal ↗
11 May 2026
The Corporate Vocabulary That Slowly Kills Your Will to Shiporiginal ↗
10 May 2026
Designing a PostgreSQL Trade Log Schema for an Automated Weather Trading Botoriginal ↗
9 May 2026
The Senior Engineer Ceiling and Why I Stopped Waiting to Hit Itoriginal ↗
9 May 2026
The 3 AM Page: Why I'd Rather Build a System That Handles Its Own Failuresoriginal ↗
5 May 2026
How I Pull Free GFS Ensemble Data with the Open-Meteo API in Pythonoriginal ↗
5 May 2026
Friday Status Reports vs. SQLite Logs: The Difference Between Proving You Worked and Knowing You Didoriginal ↗
3 May 2026
The 3 Filters That Saved My Kalshi Weather Bot From Blowing Uporiginal ↗
3 May 2026
Alpaca Fractional Shares and Dynamic Position Sizing: How the Bot Decides How Much to Buyoriginal ↗
2 May 2026
Sprint Velocity Is a Measure of Effort. My Bot Measures Outcomes. There Is a Difference.original ↗
2 May 2026
Trading the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast on Kalshi (March 2026 Data)original ↗
1 May 2026
Finnhub Sentiment Integration: How I Pull, Normalize, and Age-Weight News Scores for the Alpaca Botoriginal ↗
1 May 2026
Kalshi Weather Bot Profitability in 2026: The Math Behind the Edgeoriginal ↗
1 May 2026
The Year-End Bonus Trap: Why I Traded a Discretionary Payout for a System That Settles Every 24 Hoursoriginal ↗
1 May 2026
Deploying Your Python Trading Bot as a systemd Service on Ubuntu: The Production Setup No Tutorial Coversoriginal ↗
29 Apr 2026
Scope Creep Never Ships: Why My Trading Bot Has One Job and Corporate Software Has Fortyoriginal ↗
29 Apr 2026
Alpaca API TCP Timeouts: How I Fixed the Silent Connection Drops Killing My Stock Botoriginal ↗
28 Apr 2026
The Performance Review vs. The P&L Ledger: Why I Stopped Letting Someone Else Grade My Workoriginal ↗
28 Apr 2026
Building a Python Macroeconomic Truth Engine: How to Trade the Kalshi CPI Spreadoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2026
They Forced Me Back to the Office. My Bot Didn't Notice.original ↗
26 Apr 2026
SQLite Thread Locks in a Dual-Bot Python Architecture: What Breaks and How to Fix Itoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2026
The Danger of Biting Your Tongue in Corporate Engineeringoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Builder Math: Why I Stopped Building for Corporations and Built a Bot for Myselforiginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
The Alignment Meeting That Made Me Finally Ship Somethingoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Kalshi RSA-PSS Authentication in Python: Sign API Requests Correctlyoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Using a Candlestick Foundation Model for Crypto Trading: Kronos on Alpacaoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Silent API Failures: The Bug That Drains Your Trading Account Without a Single Error Logoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
IB ForecastTrader vs Kalshi: Which Is Better for Automated Weather Tradingoriginal ↗
12 Apr 2026
Kalshi Weather Bot Profitability in 2026: Where the Alpha Is (And Isn't)original ↗
12 Apr 2026
What Happens When the Automated Weather Trading Bot Is Wrongoriginal ↗
12 Apr 2026
GFS Ensemble vs Single Point Forecast: Why 31 Models Beat 1 Every Timeoriginal ↗
11 Apr 2026
How I Went from Idea to First Sale in 30 Days at Age 60original ↗
11 Apr 2026
Month 1 Results: The Honest Numbers From My Automated Weather Trading Botoriginal ↗
10 Apr 2026
Why I Filter Out 90 Percent of Trades (And Why That Is a Good Thing)original ↗
10 Apr 2026
Handling Partial Fills on Kalshi: The Danger of Unhedged Exposureoriginal ↗
7 Apr 2026
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