corpus.blog
41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a087c9-2f42-72e7-92da-bd3519778062", "title": "Brier Score Explained: How to Measure If Your Probabilistic Model Actually Works", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-27-brier-score-explained-how-to-measure-if-your-probabilistic-model-actually-works", "published_at": "2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f43-733b-8581-27ec0ceae4de", "title": "The Honest Post-Mortem: Why We're Publishing Our Failures Publicly", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-26-the-honest-post-mortem-why-were-publishing-our-failures-publicly", "published_at": "2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f43-733b-8581-27ec0d8aa662", "title": "When to Stop Building and Start Using What Already Exists", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-25-when-to-stop-building-and-start-using-what-already-exists", "published_at": "2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b733748d9d26", "title": "Why We Audit Our Own Bot Instead of Trusting the P&L", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-24-why-we-audit-our-own-bot-instead-of-trusting-the-pl", "published_at": "2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73374f5ebed", "title": "The Most Dangerous Bugs Are the Ones That Don't Throw Errors", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-23-the-most-dangerous-bugs-are-the-ones-that-dont-throw-errors", "published_at": "2026-08-23T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b733757ebd03", "title": "NOAA's National Blend of Models: What It Is and Why We Switched to It", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-22-noaas-national-blend-of-models-what-it-is-and-why-we-switched-to-it", "published_at": "2026-08-22T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73375bae156", "title": "Probability Calibration for Binary Markets: Why 98% Confidence Should Scare You", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-21-probability-calibration-for-binary-markets-why-98-confidence-should-scare-you", "published_at": "2026-08-21T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73375c0b24e", "title": "Visualizing Trade Timestamps Against DST Transitions: The Chart That Revealed the Bug", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-20-visualizing-trade-timestamps-against-dst-transitions-the-chart-that-revealed-the-bug", "published_at": "2026-08-20T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73375d784a9", "title": "How to Query Kalshi's Metadata API for Correct Settlement Specifications", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-19-how-to-query-kalshis-metadata-api-for-correct-settlement-specifications", "published_at": "2026-08-19T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b733765ae1d4", "title": "49 New Automated Tests: How We Prevent the Same Bugs from Coming Back", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-18-49-new-automated-tests-how-we-prevent-the-same-bugs-from-coming-back", "published_at": "2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73376775db1", "title": "Rebuilt and Undergoing Validation: Where the Weather Bot Stands in July 2026", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-17-rebuilt-and-undergoing-validation-where-the-weather-bot-stands-in-july-2026", "published_at": "2026-08-17T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73377108b94", "title": "Seven Defects in Four Months: What We Found When We Audited the Weather Bot", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-16-seven-defects-in-four-months-what-we-found-when-we-audited-the-weather-bot", "published_at": "2026-08-16T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b733779e179c", "title": "The Market Was Right: How Kalshi Priced Our Trades to Within One Percentage Point", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-15-the-market-was-right-how-kalshi-priced-our-trades-to-within-one-percentage-point", "published_at": "2026-08-15T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73377e6c11e", "title": "Why We Replaced Our Custom Ensemble with NOAA's National Blend of Models", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-14-why-we-replaced-our-custom-ensemble-with-noaas-national-blend-of-models", "published_at": "2026-08-14T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73378d18773", "title": "Confident and Wrong: Why Our Model's High-Confidence Trades Lost Money", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-13-confident-and-wrong-why-our-models-high-confidence-trades-lost-money", "published_at": "2026-08-13T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b73378eacffb", "title": "Chicago Is Not O'Hare: The Settlement Station Mapping Mistake", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-12-chicago-is-not-ohare-the-settlement-station-mapping-mistake", "published_at": "2026-08-12T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b733793a17c3", "title": "We Audited 112 Trades and Found Our Model Had No Skill", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-11-we-audited-112-trades-and-found-our-model-had-no-skill", "published_at": "2026-08-11T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f44-7121-a2ef-b7337948529d", "title": "We Turned Down Google's AI Weather Model", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-08-06-we-turned-down-googles-ai-weather-model", "published_at": "2026-08-06T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f45-71ec-aee2-11182232f19b", "title": "The Daylight Saving Time Bug That Broke My Weather Bot for 8 Months", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/2026-07-30-the-daylight-saving-time-bug-that-broke-my-weather-bot-for-8-months", "published_at": "2026-07-30T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569dd16d949", "title": "Building in Public at 60: What Nobody Tells You About Starting Late", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/building-in-public-at-60-what-nobody-tells-you-about-startin", "published_at": "2026-06-29T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569dd9a04e3", "title": "Polymarket vs Kalshi: An Honest Comparison for Algo Traders in 2026", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/polymarket-vs-kalshi-an-honest-comparison-for-algo-traders-i", "published_at": "2026-06-28T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569ddad878f", "title": "The PRD That Was Obsolete Before the Sprint Started", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-prd-that-was-obsolete-before-the-sprint-started", "published_at": "2026-06-27T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569ddcaa3b2", "title": "Why Binary Contracts Are Actually Easier to Model Than Stocks", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-binary-contracts-are-actually-easier-to-model-than-stock", "published_at": "2026-06-26T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569de1ec33d", "title": "Kronos: What NVIDIA's 12-Billion-Candlestick Foundation Model Actually Is (And Isn't)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kronos-what-nvidias-12-billion-candlestick-foundation-model-", "published_at": "2026-06-25T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569df19a302", "title": "The Bug That Made My Bot Blind to Its Own Positions", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-bug-that-made-my-bot-blind-to-its-own-positions", "published_at": "2026-06-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569dfc31b7e", "title": "psycopg2 vs SQLAlchemy: Which One Should Your Trading Bot Use?", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/psycopg2-vs-sqlalchemy-which-one-should-your-trading-bot-use", "published_at": "2026-06-22T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569e0ae339e", "title": "Nginx as a Reverse Proxy: The 20-Line Config That Runs My Production Site", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/nginx-as-a-reverse-proxy-the-20-line-config-that-runs-my-pro", "published_at": "2026-06-21T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569e0fa7ee7", "title": "The Psychology of Losing Trades: What 9 Months of Automated Trading Taught Me About Detachment", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-psychology-of-losing-trades-what-9-months-of-automated-t", "published_at": "2026-06-20T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f46-7176-8f1d-1569e116eb13", "title": "Git History as a Debug Tool: How I Found a Two-Week-Old Bug Using git bisect", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/git-history-as-a-debug-tool-how-i-found-a-two-week-old-bug-u", "published_at": "2026-06-19T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914bdd2db2a", "title": "Why I Stopped Asking for Permission to Automate My Own Job", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-stopped-asking-for-permission-to-automate-my-own-job", "published_at": "2026-06-18T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914be025ab2", "title": "Cron Jobs Are the Most Underrated Automation Tool in a Solo Builder's Stack", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/cron-jobs-are-the-most-underrated-automation-tool-in-a-solo-", "published_at": "2026-06-17T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914be277ae4", "title": "ECMWF AIFS: The AI Forecast Model That's Quietly Beating the Physics Models", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/ecmwf-aifs-the-ai-forecast-model-thats-quietly-beating-the-p", "published_at": "2026-06-16T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914bea570ff", "title": "Why I Added 62 Unit Tests to a Bot I Already Trusted", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-added-62-unit-tests-to-a-bot-i-already-trusted", "published_at": "2026-06-15T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914bebaedbd", "title": "How to Run Python Scripts on a Schedule Without Cron Breaking Everything", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-to-run-python-scripts-on-a-schedule-without-cron-breakin", "published_at": "2026-06-14T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914bf585e47", "title": "ECMWF vs GFS: Which Weather Model Is Actually More Accurate for Kalshi Trading?", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/ecmwf-vs-gfs-which-weather-model-is-actually-more-accurate-f", "published_at": "2026-06-13T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914bf79ef23", "title": "Five Signals Are Better Than One: Inside the Econ Bot's Multi-Source Nowcast", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/five-signals-are-better-than-one-inside-the-econ-bots-multi-", "published_at": "2026-06-12T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c0255c70", "title": "The Architecture Review That Took Longer Than Building the Feature", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-architecture-review-that-took-longer-than-building-the-f", "published_at": "2026-06-11T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c11a3263", "title": "PM2: The Process Manager That Keeps My Bots Running While I Sleep", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/pm2-the-process-manager-that-keeps-my-bots-running-while-i-s", "published_at": "2026-06-10T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c17768db", "title": "Regime Change Detection: How the Econ Bot Knows When the Market Has Shifted", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/regime-change-detection-how-the-econ-bot-knows-when-the-mark", "published_at": "2026-06-09T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c1d3cbfe", "title": "GitHub Actions from Scratch: The Deployment Pipeline I Wish I'd Had in Corporate", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/github-actions-from-scratch-the-deployment-pipeline-i-wish-i", "published_at": "2026-06-08T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c2b5268c", "title": "What the Kalshi Order Book Actually Looks Like at 2am (And Why That Matters)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/what-the-kalshi-order-book-actually-looks-like-at-2am-and-wh", "published_at": "2026-06-07T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c368b304", "title": "How I Auto-Generate This Blog With a $6 VPS, a Cron Job, and the Anthropic API", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-i-auto-generate-this-blog-with-a-6-vps-a-cron-job-and-th", "published_at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c387882c", "title": "nvm, Node Version Hell, and Why I Always Run `nvm alias default 18` First", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/nvm-node-version-hell-and-why-i-always-run-nvm-alias-default", "published_at": "2026-06-05T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c41f9d2b", "title": "How I Backfill Missing Settlement Data from the Kalshi API", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-i-backfill-missing-settlement-data-from-the-kalshi-api", "published_at": "2026-06-04T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c4d52c99", "title": "What Gumroad Actually Pays Out (And What They Don't Tell You About Fees)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/what-gumroad-actually-pays-out-and-what-they-dont-tell-you-a", "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c540cb31", "title": "Environment Variables, Secrets, and .env Files: How I Manage API Keys Across Three Servers", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/environment-variables-secrets-and-env-files-how-i-manage-api", "published_at": "2026-06-02T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c5d5d7dd", "title": "Shipping a SQLite Bot to Customers When You Run PostgreSQL in Prod", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/shipping-a-sqlite-bot-to-customers-when-you-run-postgresql-i", "published_at": "2026-06-01T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c658aa88", "title": "Reddit Is Still the Best Free Marketing Channel for Technical Products in 2026", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/reddit-is-still-the-best-free-marketing-channel-for-technica", "published_at": "2026-05-31T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c65d3ff7", "title": "AWS S3 as a Free Weather Data Pipeline: How NOAA Publishes Forecast Data Without Rate Limits", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/aws-s3-as-a-free-weather-data-pipeline-how-noaa-publishes-fo", "published_at": "2026-05-30T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c68f8801", "title": "Why I Use an LLC to Sell Software (And What It Actually Costs to Set One Up)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-use-an-llc-to-sell-software-and-what-it-actually-costs", "published_at": "2026-05-29T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c6f1463c", "title": "The xarray Truthiness Bug That Crashed My Weather Bot Silently", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-xarray-truthiness-bug-that-crashed-my-weather-bot-silent", "published_at": "2026-05-28T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c7ef9b42", "title": "Auto-Close on Regime Change: The Feature I Was Afraid to Ship", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/auto-close-on-regime-change-the-feature-i-was-afraid-to-ship", "published_at": "2026-05-27T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c8d51b9b", "title": "Building a Dead Simple Health Check for a Headless Python Bot", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/building-a-dead-simple-health-check-for-a-headless-python-bo", "published_at": "2026-05-27T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c9065fd8", "title": "How I Use Git as a Deployment System (And Why It Works Perfectly for Solo Projects)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/how-i-use-git-as-a-deployment-system-and-why-it-works-perfectly-for-solo-projects", "published_at": "2026-05-25T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c9b80218", "title": "Tax Implications of Prediction Market Trading: What I Learned the Hard Way", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/tax-implications-of-prediction-market-trading-what-i-learned", "published_at": "2026-05-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c9d31b36", "title": "VPS vs Managed Hosting: Why I Run Everything on a $6 RackNerd Box", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/vps-vs-managed-hosting-why-i-run-everything-on-a-6-racknerd-box", "published_at": "2026-05-23T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914c9df48d3", "title": "Postgres on a $6 VPS: The Setup That Runs Two Live Trading Bots", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/postgres-on-a-6-vps-the-setup-that-runs-two-live-trading-bot", "published_at": "2026-05-22T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914ca1e9718", "title": "Thirty Years of Being the Smartest Person in the Meeting Who Couldn't Change Anything", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/thirty-years-of-being-the-smartest-person-in-the-meeting-who", "published_at": "2026-05-21T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914ca6f6eb5", "title": "My First Product Launch: What I Spent, What I Made, and What I'd Do Differently", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/my-first-product-launch-what-i-spent-what-i-made-and-what-id", "published_at": "2026-05-20T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914cadb45c7", "title": "The Difference Between a Side Project and a Product (I Learned It the Hard Way)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-difference-between-a-side-project-and-a-product-i-learne", "published_at": "2026-05-19T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914cb2c5307", "title": "NOAA's GraphCast Goes Operational: What It Means for Weather Trading Bots", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/noaas-graphcast-goes-operational-what-it-means-for-weather-t", "published_at": "2026-05-18T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914cbc5ab8f", "title": "Python Logging Done Right: The Setup That Tells You Exactly What Your Bot Did", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/python-logging-done-right-the-setup-that-tells-you-exactly-w", "published_at": "2026-05-17T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914ccbe785a", "title": "April 2026 CPI: What the Cleveland Fed Nowcast Got Right (And Wrong)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/april-2026-cpi-what-the-cleveland-fed-nowcast-got-right-and-", "published_at": "2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f47-727d-ae1f-e914cd203200", "title": "Predict & Profit v2.2: The Reliability Release", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/predict-and-profit-v2-2-reliability-release", "published_at": "2026-05-16T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad077bfc95", "title": "The Layoff That Came on a Teams Call", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-layoff-that-came-on-a-teams-call", "published_at": "2026-05-12T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad07b2b868", "title": "Stack Ranking Destroyed the Best Team I Ever Worked On", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/stack-ranking-destroyed-the-best-team-i-ever-worked-on", "published_at": "2026-05-11T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad0880c679", "title": "The Corporate Vocabulary That Slowly Kills Your Will to Ship", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/the-corporate-vocabulary-that-slowly-kills-your-will-to-ship", "published_at": "2026-05-10T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad09082650", "title": "Designing a PostgreSQL Trade Log Schema for an Automated Weather Trading Bot", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/postgresql-trade-log-schema-pnl-queries", "published_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad0a012eba", "title": "The Senior Engineer Ceiling and Why I Stopped Waiting to Hit It", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/senior-engineer-ceiling-automated-trading", "published_at": "2026-05-09T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad0a5cd449", "title": "The 3 AM Page: Why I'd Rather Build a System That Handles Its Own Failures", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/oncall-rotation-versus-self-healing-trading-bot", "published_at": "2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad0b0e9a63", "title": "How I Pull Free GFS Ensemble Data with the Open-Meteo API in Python", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/open-meteo-gfs-ensemble-api-python", "published_at": "2026-05-05T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f48-701c-9d0e-1bad0b6089ef", "title": "Friday Status Reports vs. SQLite Logs: The Difference Between Proving You Worked and Knowing You Did", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/friday-status-reports-versus-sqlite-logs", "published_at": "2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370bb396fa", "title": "The 3 Filters That Saved My Kalshi Weather Bot From Blowing Up", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/three-filters-kalshi-weather-bot-blowup", "published_at": "2026-05-03T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370c699724", "title": "Alpaca Fractional Shares and Dynamic Position Sizing: How the Bot Decides How Much to Buy", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/alpaca-fractional-share-position-sizing-python", "published_at": "2026-05-02T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370c72dbbd", "title": "Sprint Velocity Is a Measure of Effort. My Bot Measures Outcomes. There Is a Difference.", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/sprint-velocity-theater-versus-pnl-outcomes", "published_at": "2026-05-02T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370d40d3c8", "title": "Trading the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast on Kalshi (March 2026 Data)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/cleveland-fed-cpi-nowcast-march-2026", "published_at": "2026-05-01T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370e1d446b", "title": "Finnhub Sentiment Integration: How I Pull, Normalize, and Age-Weight News Scores for the Alpaca Bot", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/finnhub-sentiment-age-weighted-scoring-alpaca-python", "published_at": "2026-05-01T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370eb89823", "title": "Kalshi Weather Bot Profitability in 2026: The Math Behind the Edge", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kalshi-weather-bot-profitability-math-2026", "published_at": "2026-05-01T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370f666d10", "title": "The Year-End Bonus Trap: Why I Traded a Discretionary Payout for a System That Settles Every 24 Hours", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/year-end-bonus-trap-daily-pnl-automated-trading", "published_at": "2026-05-01T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53370f9f4394", "title": "Deploying Your Python Trading Bot as a systemd Service on Ubuntu: The Production Setup No Tutorial Covers", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/deploying-python-trading-bot-systemd-ubuntu", "published_at": "2026-04-29T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f49-73b8-afd4-53371038f03a", "title": "Scope Creep Never Ships: Why My Trading Bot Has One Job and Corporate Software Has Forty", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/scope-creep-never-ships-lean-bot-architecture", "published_at": "2026-04-29T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799e11079c", "title": "Alpaca API TCP Timeouts: How I Fixed the Silent Connection Drops Killing My Stock Bot", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/alpaca-tcp-timeout-reconnection-python", "published_at": "2026-04-28T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799e3a0fed", "title": "The Performance Review vs. The P&L Ledger: Why I Stopped Letting Someone Else Grade My Work", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/performance-review-versus-pnl-ledger", "published_at": "2026-04-28T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799eacb309", "title": "Building a Python Macroeconomic Truth Engine: How to Trade the Kalshi CPI Spread", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/building-a-python-macroeconomic-truth-engine", "published_at": "2026-04-26T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799f5f1b39", "title": "They Forced Me Back to the Office. My Bot Didn't Notice.", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/rto-mandate-open-office-automated-trading", "published_at": "2026-04-26T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799fafb86f", "title": "SQLite Thread Locks in a Dual-Bot Python Architecture: What Breaks and How to Fix It", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/sqlite-thread-safety-dual-bot-python", "published_at": "2026-04-26T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799fbaa9db", "title": "The Danger of Biting Your Tongue in Corporate Engineering", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/biting-your-tongue-in-corporate-engineering", "published_at": "2026-04-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a7799ff7c838", "title": "Builder Math: Why I Stopped Building for Corporations and Built a Bot for Myself", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/corporate-engineering-to-solo-builder", "published_at": "2026-04-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a04701f1", "title": "The Alignment Meeting That Made Me Finally Ship Something", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/escaping-alignment-meetings-with-python", "published_at": "2026-04-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a0862c56", "title": "Kalshi RSA-PSS Authentication in Python: Sign API Requests Correctly", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kalshi-rsa-pss-authentication-python", "published_at": "2026-04-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a120e450", "title": "Using a Candlestick Foundation Model for Crypto Trading: Kronos on Alpaca", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kronos-ai-model-crypto-trading-alpaca", "published_at": "2026-04-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a184ad6e", "title": "Silent API Failures: The Bug That Drains Your Trading Account Without a Single Error Log", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/silent-api-failures-automated-trading", "published_at": "2026-04-24T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a1e29b7e", "title": "IB ForecastTrader vs Kalshi: Which Is Better for Automated Weather Trading", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/ib-forecasttrader-vs-kalshi-automated-weather-trading", "published_at": "2026-04-12T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a2c9eac0", "title": "Kalshi Weather Bot Profitability in 2026: Where the Alpha Is (And Isn't)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kalshi-weather-bot-profitability-2026", "published_at": "2026-04-12T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a33feb8c", "title": "What Happens When the Automated Weather Trading Bot Is Wrong", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/what-happens-when-the-bot-is-wrong", "published_at": "2026-04-12T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a39fb5fe", "title": "GFS Ensemble vs Single Point Forecast: Why 31 Models Beat 1 Every Time", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/gfs-ensemble-vs-single-point-forecast", "published_at": "2026-04-11T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a47b2ad5", "title": "How I Went from Idea to First Sale in 30 Days at Age 60", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/idea-to-first-sale-30-days-age-60", "published_at": "2026-04-11T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a497a2f2", "title": "Month 1 Results: The Honest Numbers From My Automated Weather Trading Bot", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/month-1-results-honest-numbers", "published_at": "2026-04-10T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a4d57c16", "title": "Why I Filter Out 90 Percent of Trades (And Why That Is a Good Thing)", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/why-i-filter-out-90-percent-of-trades", "published_at": "2026-04-10T12:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087c9-2f55-70ab-8ce8-a779a50e27e4", "title": "Handling Partial Fills on Kalshi: The Danger of Unhedged Exposure", "url": "https://predictandprofit.io/blog/kalshi-partial-fills-logic", "published_at": "2026-04-07T12:00:00+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog
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2026

Brier Score Explained: How to Measure If Your Probabilistic Model Actually Worksoriginal ↗
27 Aug 2026
The Honest Post-Mortem: Why We're Publishing Our Failures Publiclyoriginal ↗
26 Aug 2026
When to Stop Building and Start Using What Already Existsoriginal ↗
25 Aug 2026
Why We Audit Our Own Bot Instead of Trusting the P&Loriginal ↗
24 Aug 2026
The Most Dangerous Bugs Are the Ones That Don't Throw Errorsoriginal ↗
23 Aug 2026
NOAA's National Blend of Models: What It Is and Why We Switched to Itoriginal ↗
22 Aug 2026
Probability Calibration for Binary Markets: Why 98% Confidence Should Scare Youoriginal ↗
21 Aug 2026
Visualizing Trade Timestamps Against DST Transitions: The Chart That Revealed the Bugoriginal ↗
20 Aug 2026
How to Query Kalshi's Metadata API for Correct Settlement Specificationsoriginal ↗
19 Aug 2026
49 New Automated Tests: How We Prevent the Same Bugs from Coming Backoriginal ↗
18 Aug 2026
Rebuilt and Undergoing Validation: Where the Weather Bot Stands in July 2026original ↗
17 Aug 2026
Seven Defects in Four Months: What We Found When We Audited the Weather Botoriginal ↗
16 Aug 2026
The Market Was Right: How Kalshi Priced Our Trades to Within One Percentage Pointoriginal ↗
15 Aug 2026
Why We Replaced Our Custom Ensemble with NOAA's National Blend of Modelsoriginal ↗
14 Aug 2026
Confident and Wrong: Why Our Model's High-Confidence Trades Lost Moneyoriginal ↗
13 Aug 2026
Chicago Is Not O'Hare: The Settlement Station Mapping Mistakeoriginal ↗
12 Aug 2026
We Audited 112 Trades and Found Our Model Had No Skilloriginal ↗
11 Aug 2026
We Turned Down Google's AI Weather Modeloriginal ↗
6 Aug 2026
The Daylight Saving Time Bug That Broke My Weather Bot for 8 Monthsoriginal ↗
30 Jul 2026
Building in Public at 60: What Nobody Tells You About Starting Lateoriginal ↗
29 Jun 2026
Polymarket vs Kalshi: An Honest Comparison for Algo Traders in 2026original ↗
28 Jun 2026
The PRD That Was Obsolete Before the Sprint Startedoriginal ↗
27 Jun 2026
Why Binary Contracts Are Actually Easier to Model Than Stocksoriginal ↗
26 Jun 2026
Kronos: What NVIDIA's 12-Billion-Candlestick Foundation Model Actually Is (And Isn't)original ↗
25 Jun 2026
The Bug That Made My Bot Blind to Its Own Positionsoriginal ↗
24 Jun 2026
psycopg2 vs SQLAlchemy: Which One Should Your Trading Bot Use?original ↗
22 Jun 2026
Nginx as a Reverse Proxy: The 20-Line Config That Runs My Production Siteoriginal ↗
21 Jun 2026
The Psychology of Losing Trades: What 9 Months of Automated Trading Taught Me About Detachmentoriginal ↗
20 Jun 2026
Git History as a Debug Tool: How I Found a Two-Week-Old Bug Using git bisectoriginal ↗
19 Jun 2026
Why I Stopped Asking for Permission to Automate My Own Joboriginal ↗
18 Jun 2026
Cron Jobs Are the Most Underrated Automation Tool in a Solo Builder's Stackoriginal ↗
17 Jun 2026
ECMWF AIFS: The AI Forecast Model That's Quietly Beating the Physics Modelsoriginal ↗
16 Jun 2026
Why I Added 62 Unit Tests to a Bot I Already Trustedoriginal ↗
15 Jun 2026
How to Run Python Scripts on a Schedule Without Cron Breaking Everythingoriginal ↗
14 Jun 2026
ECMWF vs GFS: Which Weather Model Is Actually More Accurate for Kalshi Trading?original ↗
13 Jun 2026
Five Signals Are Better Than One: Inside the Econ Bot's Multi-Source Nowcastoriginal ↗
12 Jun 2026
The Architecture Review That Took Longer Than Building the Featureoriginal ↗
11 Jun 2026
PM2: The Process Manager That Keeps My Bots Running While I Sleeporiginal ↗
10 Jun 2026
Regime Change Detection: How the Econ Bot Knows When the Market Has Shiftedoriginal ↗
9 Jun 2026
GitHub Actions from Scratch: The Deployment Pipeline I Wish I'd Had in Corporateoriginal ↗
8 Jun 2026
What the Kalshi Order Book Actually Looks Like at 2am (And Why That Matters)original ↗
7 Jun 2026
How I Auto-Generate This Blog With a $6 VPS, a Cron Job, and the Anthropic APIoriginal ↗
6 Jun 2026
nvm, Node Version Hell, and Why I Always Run `nvm alias default 18` Firstoriginal ↗
5 Jun 2026
How I Backfill Missing Settlement Data from the Kalshi APIoriginal ↗
4 Jun 2026
What Gumroad Actually Pays Out (And What They Don't Tell You About Fees)original ↗
3 Jun 2026
Environment Variables, Secrets, and .env Files: How I Manage API Keys Across Three Serversoriginal ↗
2 Jun 2026
Shipping a SQLite Bot to Customers When You Run PostgreSQL in Prodoriginal ↗
1 Jun 2026
Reddit Is Still the Best Free Marketing Channel for Technical Products in 2026original ↗
31 May 2026
AWS S3 as a Free Weather Data Pipeline: How NOAA Publishes Forecast Data Without Rate Limitsoriginal ↗
30 May 2026
Why I Use an LLC to Sell Software (And What It Actually Costs to Set One Up)original ↗
29 May 2026
The xarray Truthiness Bug That Crashed My Weather Bot Silentlyoriginal ↗
28 May 2026
Auto-Close on Regime Change: The Feature I Was Afraid to Shiporiginal ↗
27 May 2026
Building a Dead Simple Health Check for a Headless Python Botoriginal ↗
27 May 2026
How I Use Git as a Deployment System (And Why It Works Perfectly for Solo Projects)original ↗
25 May 2026
Tax Implications of Prediction Market Trading: What I Learned the Hard Wayoriginal ↗
24 May 2026
VPS vs Managed Hosting: Why I Run Everything on a $6 RackNerd Boxoriginal ↗
23 May 2026
Postgres on a $6 VPS: The Setup That Runs Two Live Trading Botsoriginal ↗
22 May 2026
Thirty Years of Being the Smartest Person in the Meeting Who Couldn't Change Anythingoriginal ↗
21 May 2026
My First Product Launch: What I Spent, What I Made, and What I'd Do Differentlyoriginal ↗
20 May 2026
The Difference Between a Side Project and a Product (I Learned It the Hard Way)original ↗
19 May 2026
NOAA's GraphCast Goes Operational: What It Means for Weather Trading Botsoriginal ↗
18 May 2026
Python Logging Done Right: The Setup That Tells You Exactly What Your Bot Didoriginal ↗
17 May 2026
April 2026 CPI: What the Cleveland Fed Nowcast Got Right (And Wrong)original ↗
16 May 2026
Predict & Profit v2.2: The Reliability Releaseoriginal ↗
16 May 2026
The Layoff That Came on a Teams Calloriginal ↗
12 May 2026
Stack Ranking Destroyed the Best Team I Ever Worked Onoriginal ↗
11 May 2026
The Corporate Vocabulary That Slowly Kills Your Will to Shiporiginal ↗
10 May 2026
Designing a PostgreSQL Trade Log Schema for an Automated Weather Trading Botoriginal ↗
9 May 2026
The Senior Engineer Ceiling and Why I Stopped Waiting to Hit Itoriginal ↗
9 May 2026
The 3 AM Page: Why I'd Rather Build a System That Handles Its Own Failuresoriginal ↗
5 May 2026
How I Pull Free GFS Ensemble Data with the Open-Meteo API in Pythonoriginal ↗
5 May 2026
Friday Status Reports vs. SQLite Logs: The Difference Between Proving You Worked and Knowing You Didoriginal ↗
3 May 2026
The 3 Filters That Saved My Kalshi Weather Bot From Blowing Uporiginal ↗
3 May 2026
Alpaca Fractional Shares and Dynamic Position Sizing: How the Bot Decides How Much to Buyoriginal ↗
2 May 2026
Sprint Velocity Is a Measure of Effort. My Bot Measures Outcomes. There Is a Difference.original ↗
2 May 2026
Trading the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast on Kalshi (March 2026 Data)original ↗
1 May 2026
Finnhub Sentiment Integration: How I Pull, Normalize, and Age-Weight News Scores for the Alpaca Botoriginal ↗
1 May 2026
Kalshi Weather Bot Profitability in 2026: The Math Behind the Edgeoriginal ↗
1 May 2026
The Year-End Bonus Trap: Why I Traded a Discretionary Payout for a System That Settles Every 24 Hoursoriginal ↗
1 May 2026
Deploying Your Python Trading Bot as a systemd Service on Ubuntu: The Production Setup No Tutorial Coversoriginal ↗
29 Apr 2026
Scope Creep Never Ships: Why My Trading Bot Has One Job and Corporate Software Has Fortyoriginal ↗
29 Apr 2026
Alpaca API TCP Timeouts: How I Fixed the Silent Connection Drops Killing My Stock Botoriginal ↗
28 Apr 2026
The Performance Review vs. The P&L Ledger: Why I Stopped Letting Someone Else Grade My Workoriginal ↗
28 Apr 2026
Building a Python Macroeconomic Truth Engine: How to Trade the Kalshi CPI Spreadoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2026
They Forced Me Back to the Office. My Bot Didn't Notice.original ↗
26 Apr 2026
SQLite Thread Locks in a Dual-Bot Python Architecture: What Breaks and How to Fix Itoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2026
The Danger of Biting Your Tongue in Corporate Engineeringoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Builder Math: Why I Stopped Building for Corporations and Built a Bot for Myselforiginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
The Alignment Meeting That Made Me Finally Ship Somethingoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Kalshi RSA-PSS Authentication in Python: Sign API Requests Correctlyoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Using a Candlestick Foundation Model for Crypto Trading: Kronos on Alpacaoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
Silent API Failures: The Bug That Drains Your Trading Account Without a Single Error Logoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2026
IB ForecastTrader vs Kalshi: Which Is Better for Automated Weather Tradingoriginal ↗
12 Apr 2026
Kalshi Weather Bot Profitability in 2026: Where the Alpha Is (And Isn't)original ↗
12 Apr 2026
What Happens When the Automated Weather Trading Bot Is Wrongoriginal ↗
12 Apr 2026
GFS Ensemble vs Single Point Forecast: Why 31 Models Beat 1 Every Timeoriginal ↗
11 Apr 2026
How I Went from Idea to First Sale in 30 Days at Age 60original ↗
11 Apr 2026
Month 1 Results: The Honest Numbers From My Automated Weather Trading Botoriginal ↗
10 Apr 2026
Why I Filter Out 90 Percent of Trades (And Why That Is a Good Thing)original ↗
10 Apr 2026
Handling Partial Fills on Kalshi: The Danger of Unhedged Exposureoriginal ↗
7 Apr 2026
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