41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e6b87abc", "title": "Bricks and exponentials: A note on how I evaluate projects", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/09/01/bricks-and-exponentials-a-note-how-i-evaluate-projects/", "published_at": "2026-09-01T02:15:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e6e73746", "title": "Don’t make allow unprincipled carveouts to your deontological principles", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/08/26/dont-make-unprincipled-exceptions-to-deontological-principles/", "published_at": "2026-08-26T20:02:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e74aa353", "title": "Things that I want personally", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/08/06/things-that-i-want-personally/", "published_at": "2026-08-06T18:48:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e7c0efda", "title": "Irreducible complexity does not preclude Napoleon, nor strategically superhuman AI", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/03/31/irreducible-complexity-does-not-preclude-napoleon-nor-strategically-superhuman-ai/", "published_at": "2026-03-31T22:31:48+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e7f9677b", "title": "Notes on the Caplan-Bruenig “poverty” debate", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/02/15/notes-on-the-caplan-bruenig-debate/", "published_at": "2026-02-15T06:44:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e87d8bd0", "title": "What’s up with the Anthropic board?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/01/31/whats-up-with-the-anthropic-board/", "published_at": "2026-01-31T21:39:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e8aaa14c", "title": "Some questions that I have about AI and the overall strategic situation, and why I want to know", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/01/31/some-questions-that-i-have-about-ai-and-the-overall-strategic-situation-and-why-i-want-to-know/", "published_at": "2026-01-31T19:48:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e96d6c84", "title": "Frame: Rationality as self-hobbling", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/01/12/frame-rationality-as-self-hobbling/", "published_at": "2026-01-12T03:23:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82e9e2b801", "title": "Why AIs aren’t power-seeking yet", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2026/01/11/why-ais-arent-power-seeking-yet/", "published_at": "2026-01-11T07:11:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a087aa-bf19-7367-bfa3-0c82ea50eef1", "title": "Aspiring to rationality is choosing to be a purist", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/12/22/aspiring-to-rationality-is-choosing-to-be-a-purist/", "published_at": "2025-12-22T00:49:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e70e4c010a", "title": "Some further thoughts on Corrigibility and non-consequentialist motivations", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/12/01/some-further-thoughts-on-corrigibility-and-deontology/", "published_at": "2025-12-01T06:46:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e70ee4e313", "title": "Humans are an evil god-species", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/09/27/humans-are-an-evil-god-species/", "published_at": "2025-09-27T18:49:13+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e70f173914", "title": "When does anarcho-capitalism fall back into an equilibrium of (micro) states?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/08/25/when-does-anarcho-capitalism-fall-back-into-an-equilibrium-of-micro-states/", "published_at": "2025-08-25T04:16:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e70f33d316", "title": "Reflections: Three categories of capital", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/07/14/reflections-three-categories-of-capital/", "published_at": "2025-07-14T03:14:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e70fd941a7", "title": "One insight to AGI implies hard takeoff, Zero insights implies soft", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/06/26/one-insight-to-agi-implies-hard-takeoff-zero-implies-soft/", "published_at": "2025-06-26T04:16:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e710d8db9b", "title": "Some notes on the semiconductor industry", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/06/21/some-notes-on-the-semiconductor-industry/", "published_at": "2025-06-21T17:03:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e711b2c73e", "title": "Notes on Tyler Cowen", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/06/14/notes-on-tyler-cowen/", "published_at": "2025-06-14T04:46:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e711c22144", "title": "Some barely-considered feelings about how AI is going to play out", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2025/06/12/some-barely-considered-feelings-about-how-ai-is-going-to-play-out/", "published_at": "2025-06-12T04:53:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e712788480", "title": "The “function” of government", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/12/29/the-function-of-government/", "published_at": "2024-12-29T02:10:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bb98-116d-71dd-bb6a-35e7136f59a7", "title": "Reflecting on some regret about not trying to join and improve specific org(s)", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/12/07/reflecting-on-some-regret-about-not-trying-to-join-and-improve-specific-orgs/", "published_at": "2024-12-07T07:34:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f854b61eb", "title": "That no one rebuilt old OkCupid updates me a lot about how much the startup world actually makes the world better", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/11/08/that-no-one-rebuilt-old-okcupid-updates-me-a-lot-about-how-much-the-startup-world-actually-makes-the-world-better/", "published_at": "2024-11-08T18:42:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f85786bef", "title": "Moldbug’s insight", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/10/12/moldbugs-insight/", "published_at": "2024-10-12T05:12:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f8585137d", "title": "Small cashflow software businesses might be over soon?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/09/22/small-cashflow-software-businesses-might-be-over-soon/", "published_at": "2024-09-22T01:43:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f8682b1de", "title": "How I wish I lived my life (since 2020)", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/09/07/how-i-wish-i-lived-my-life-since-2020/", "published_at": "2024-09-07T20:49:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f8707e75e", "title": "Lessons from and musings about Polytopia", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/08/26/lessons-from-and-musings-about-polytopia/", "published_at": "2024-08-26T01:01:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f87d69372", "title": "Some thoughts on giving into threats or not", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/07/10/some-thoughts-on-giving-into-threats-or-not/", "published_at": "2024-07-10T21:43:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f88d377d3", "title": "Some notes on my recent, sudden, improvement in mood", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/06/29/some-notes-on-my-recent-sudden-improvement-in-mood/", "published_at": "2024-06-29T18:19:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f899b16ec", "title": "Some powers have ethical valence", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/05/09/some-powers-have-ethical-valence/", "published_at": "2024-05-09T02:30:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f8a51131a", "title": "A comment on Marxism.", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/04/19/a-comment-on-marxism/", "published_at": "2024-04-19T09:26:31+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba0-1852-73d2-9b2a-756f8b04c6cd", "title": "One projection of how AI could play out", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/04/17/one-projection-of-how-ai-could-play-out/", "published_at": "2024-04-17T02:46:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7ca032f42", "title": "How I’m learning programming", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/03/17/how-i-learn-programming/", "published_at": "2024-03-17T03:39:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7caa9f655", "title": "A series of vignettes for thinking about assisting corrupt regimes to prosecute crimes", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/03/01/a-series-of-vignettes-for-thinking-about-assisting-corrupt-regimes-to-prosecute-crimes/", "published_at": "2024-03-01T23:30:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cb0a199d", "title": "Some things I’ve come to understand from reading about D/s relationships", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/02/20/some-things-ive-come-to-understand-from-reading-about-d-s-relationships/", "published_at": "2024-02-20T22:46:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cbcf040b", "title": "Looking into corporate campaigns for animal welfare a bit", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2024/01/18/looking-into-animal-welfare-charities-a-bit/", "published_at": "2024-01-18T05:09:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cc81ba5e", "title": "First pass on estimating how much I benefit from structural racism", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/12/28/first-pass-on-estimating-how-much-i-benefit-from-structural-racism/", "published_at": "2023-12-28T19:12:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cd5d01ab", "title": "Some thoughts on Agents and Corrigibility", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/12/19/some-thoughts-on-agents-and-corrigibility/", "published_at": "2023-12-19T19:23:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cd6d1317", "title": "Smart Sessions – Finally a (kinda) window-centric session manager", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/11/08/smart-sessions-finally-a-kinda-window-centric-session-manager/", "published_at": "2023-11-08T07:21:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7ce69ca20", "title": "Very low energy states seem to “contain” “compressed” fear or despair.", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/11/05/very-low-energy-states-seem-to-contain-compressed-fear-or-despair/", "published_at": "2023-11-05T06:12:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cf575c5b", "title": "Rough Thoughts on the White House Executive order on AI", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/11/02/rough-thoughts-on-the-white-house-executive-order-on-ai/", "published_at": "2023-11-02T03:29:48+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bba5-c90d-71cd-a7db-07a7cf654498", "title": "Some thoughts on Effective Altruism – Two memes", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/10/30/some-thoughts-on-effective-altruism-two-memes/", "published_at": "2023-10-30T04:02:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba7665d9c690", "title": "Request for parellel conditional-market functionality", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/10/11/request-for-parellel-conditional-market-functionality/", "published_at": "2023-10-11T20:07:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba76668d67b9", "title": "A letter to my 20 year old self", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/10/05/a-letter-to-my-20-year-old-self/", "published_at": "2023-10-05T23:21:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba76668f9d38", "title": "The meta-institutional bottleneck", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/09/24/the-meta-institutional-bottleneck/", "published_at": "2023-09-24T01:35:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba76678289da", "title": "I side with my psych bugs", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/05/31/i-side-with-my-psych-bugs/", "published_at": "2023-05-31T18:28:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba7667c20c17", "title": "Investing in wayfinding, over speed", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/03/04/investing-in-wayfinding-over-speed/", "published_at": "2023-03-04T07:07:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba76680d1293", "title": "My current summary of the state of AI risk", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/02/17/my-current-summary-of-the-state-of-ai-risk/", "published_at": "2023-02-17T04:14:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba7669069953", "title": "A note on “instrumental rationality”", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2023/02/13/a-note-on-instrumental-rationality/", "published_at": "2023-02-13T19:57:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba76699c1eda", "title": "What is of increasing marginal value, and what is of decreasing?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/10/11/what-is-is-of-increasing-marginal-value-and-what-is-of-decreasing/", "published_at": "2022-10-11T15:55:28+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba766a8f531f", "title": "My policy on attempting to get people crypreserved", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/10/11/my-policy-on-attempting-to-get-people-crypreserved/", "published_at": "2022-10-11T14:07:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaa-d02d-716b-858d-ba766abd0d23", "title": "Disembodied materialists and embodied hippies?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/10/07/disembodied-materialists-and-embodied-hippies/", "published_at": "2022-10-07T13:00:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-0433915949dd", "title": "When is an event surprising enough that I should be confused?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/07/01/when-is-an-event-surprising-enough-that-i-should-be-confused/", "published_at": "2022-07-01T04:19:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-0433917bceda", "title": "First conclusions from reflections on my life", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/04/12/first-conclusions-from-reflections-on-my-life/", "published_at": "2022-04-12T23:37:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-0433917fb51a", "title": "Paternalism is about outrage", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/03/29/paternalism-is-about-outrage/", "published_at": "2022-03-29T22:38:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-043391c5e0ae", "title": "Thinking about how to orient to a hostile information environment, when you don’t have the skills or the inclination to become an epistemology nerd", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/03/03/thinking-about-how-to-orient-to-a-hostile-information-environment-when-you-dont-have-the-skills-or-the-inclination-to-become-an-epistemology-nerd/", "published_at": "2022-03-03T18:34:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-0433920feccd", "title": "Some un-edited writeups of conversations that I’ve had with Ben Hoffman, and Jessica Taylor, and Michael Vassar", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2022/01/28/some-un-edited-writeups-of-conversations-that-ive-had-with-ben-hoffman-and-jessica-taylor-and-michael-vassar/", "published_at": "2022-01-28T00:46:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-043392c2e92f", "title": "Two interlocking control systems", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2021/09/27/two-interlocking-control-systems/", "published_at": "2021-09-27T06:38:28+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-0433935fc60f", "title": "Aversions inhibit slow focus", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2021/09/22/aversions-inhibit-slow-focus/", "published_at": "2021-09-22T06:33:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-04339459c026", "title": "On category I and category II problems", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2021/04/05/on-category-i-and-category-ii-problems/", "published_at": "2021-04-05T09:52:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-043394817526", "title": "My current high-level strategic picture of the world", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2021/03/24/my-current-high-level-strategic-picture-of-the-world/", "published_at": "2021-03-24T07:45:48+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbaf-e1a4-735f-8671-043394ba1c4a", "title": "How do we prepare for final crunch time? – Some initial thoughts", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2021/03/12/how-do-we-prepare-for-final-crunch-time-some-initial-thoughts/", "published_at": "2021-03-12T23:56:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813adca9ac", "title": "Tinder hookups displace hookups that are more likely to lead to relationships?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/12/21/tinder-hookups-displace-hookups-that-are-more-likely-to-lead-to-relationships/", "published_at": "2020-12-21T02:48:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813aeea97b", "title": "Social reasoning about two clusters of smart people", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/08/20/social-reasoning-about-two-clusters-of-smart-people/", "published_at": "2020-08-20T20:56:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813bb4b565", "title": "A view of the main kinds of problems facing us", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/08/14/a-view-of-the-main-kinds-of-problems-facing-us/", "published_at": "2020-08-14T15:15:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813ca0beaa", "title": "Why is the media consumption of adult millennials the same as it was when they were children?", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/08/08/why-is-the-media-consumption-of-adult-millennials-the-same-as-it-was-when-they-were-children/", "published_at": "2020-08-08T05:23:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813d9d42a6", "title": "Impressions on what is happening in the US in this decade", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/07/03/impressions-on-what-is-happening-in-the-us-in-this-decade/", "published_at": "2020-07-03T10:01:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813e0d84b1", "title": "Values are extrapolated urges", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/05/31/values-are-extrapolated-urges/", "published_at": "2020-05-31T22:33:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813e7d3ebd", "title": "A taxonomy of Cruxes", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/05/27/a-taxonomy-of-cruxes/", "published_at": "2020-05-27T16:28:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813f1e0a6a", "title": "A conversational pattern I observe", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/05/25/a-conversational-pattern-i-observe/", "published_at": "2020-05-25T02:43:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d9813fca88a0", "title": "Some musings on historical contingency, randomness, and my own desire to be an optimizer", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/05/06/some-musings-on-historical-contingency-randomness-and-my-own-desire-to-be-an-optimizer/", "published_at": "2020-05-06T16:29:42+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbb4-a0c6-710a-9793-d98140387e0c", "title": "Holding both the positive aspects of a problem and reality of there being a problem", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/05/06/holding-both-the-positive-aspects-of-a-problem-and-reality-of-there-being-a-problem/", "published_at": "2020-05-06T02:37:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75621b05047", "title": "Engineering vs. Valence", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/04/23/engineering-vs-valence-a-letter-to-my-mom-kind-of/", "published_at": "2020-04-23T20:50:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f756222c79bc", "title": "I have a new Blog", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/04/18/i-have-a-new-blog/", "published_at": "2020-04-18T03:35:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f7562271d3f2", "title": "Leading indicators are crucial for control systems", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/03/25/leading-indicators-are-crucial-for-control-systems/", "published_at": "2020-03-25T04:13:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75622bcd82d", "title": "Some sleep thoughts very roughly", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/02/28/some-sleep-thoughts-very-roughly/", "published_at": "2020-02-28T06:09:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75623251467", "title": "Modes, not traits, and decoupling cognitive energy from intentionality", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/02/10/modes-not-traits-and-decoupling-cognitive-energy-from-intentionality/", "published_at": "2020-02-10T05:19:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75623aa06a2", "title": "Coordinating Conversation I: micro-coordination of intention", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/01/21/coordinating-conversation-i-micro-coordination-of-intention/", "published_at": "2020-01-21T23:56:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f7562477065e", "title": "Intro to some draft posts on Double Crux, Epistemic Mediation, and Conversational Facilitation", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/01/21/intro-to-some-posts-on-double-crux-epistemic-mediation-and-conversational-facilitation/", "published_at": "2020-01-21T22:38:09+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75625260495", "title": "Emotional misattribution? Mental structures you can access from states", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/01/14/emotional-misattribution-mental-structures-you-can-access-from-states/", "published_at": "2020-01-14T06:21:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75625ec320f", "title": "Physiological arousal / activation / agitation", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/01/12/physiological-arousal-activation-agitation/", "published_at": "2020-01-12T00:15:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbba-3787-71bc-984e-f75626682eb8", "title": "Full productivity outline", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/01/04/full-productivity-outline/", "published_at": "2020-01-04T22:59:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8c4bb8ba", "title": "Your visual imagery gives insight into your motivation for action and emotion", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2020/01/04/your-visual-imagery-gives-insight-into-your-motivation-for-action-and-emotion/", "published_at": "2020-01-04T06:25:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8cad689c", "title": "Heuristics to steer by in study exploration", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/12/30/heuristics-to-steer-by-in-study-exploration/", "published_at": "2019-12-30T07:00:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8d46425a", "title": "Ideology/narrative stabilizes path-dependent equilibria", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/12/09/ideology-narrative-stabilizes-path-dependent-equilibria/", "published_at": "2019-12-09T22:40:07+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8da18061", "title": "The Basic Intervention Set for Productive Flow, and That, Generalized", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/12/05/the-basic-intervention-set-for-productive-flow-and-that-generalized/", "published_at": "2019-12-05T21:14:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8ddafc5c", "title": "The automatic alignment of the flow through effects of obliterating fundamental problems.", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/12/01/624/", "published_at": "2019-12-01T03:04:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8e9a1eff", "title": "Anxiety and distraction", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/30/anxiety-and-distraction/", "published_at": "2019-11-30T00:28:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8e9be7a2", "title": "Thoughts on power and Goodness", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/30/611/", "published_at": "2019-11-30T00:08:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8eb72c82", "title": "Notes on my Focusing bottlenecks", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/24/notes-on-my-focusing-bottlenecks/", "published_at": "2019-11-24T04:39:26+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d8f97d201", "title": "Notes on murder aversion", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/20/notes/", "published_at": "2019-11-20T07:11:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbbe-95cc-7284-b5be-9d5d9018d172", "title": "Conceptual precision breaks cooperation, but is necessary for robust cooperation", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/15/conceptual-precision-breaks-cooperation-but-is-necessary-for-robust-cooperation/", "published_at": "2019-11-15T22:22:31+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-674817237c30", "title": "Consideration Factoring: a relative of Double Crux", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/14/consideration-factoring-a-relative-of-double-crux/", "published_at": "2019-11-14T22:40:09+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-6748180825f3", "title": "Metacognitive space", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/13/metacognitive-space/", "published_at": "2019-11-13T21:05:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-674818244f61", "title": "Desires vs. reflexes", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/12/desires-vs-reflexes/", "published_at": "2019-11-12T17:59:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-6748188585ca", "title": "Some musings on human brutality and human evil", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/11/some/", "published_at": "2019-11-11T20:25:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-6748195ccef0", "title": "Two models of anxiety", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/09/546/", "published_at": "2019-11-09T02:09:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-6748197275b3", "title": "Some musings about exercise and time discount rates", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/11/08/some-musings-about-exercise-and-time-discount-rates/", "published_at": "2019-11-08T04:04:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-67481a0ed086", "title": "Some notes on Von Neumann, as a human being", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/10/26/some-notes-on-von-neumann-as-a-human-being/", "published_at": "2019-10-26T14:45:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-67481a658896", "title": "Basic Double Crux pattern example", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/09/27/basic-double-crux-pattern-example/", "published_at": "2019-09-27T21:36:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-67481b3eb507", "title": "The Basic Double Crux Pattern", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/09/24/the-basic-double-crux-pattern/", "published_at": "2019-09-24T23:20:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0bbc3-14e9-738c-8dc1-67481c2f8f57", "title": "Some things I think about Double Crux and related topics", "url": "https://musingsandroughdrafts.com/2019/09/24/some-things-i-think-about-double-crux-and-related-topics/", "published_at": "2019-09-24T23:06:07+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog

Back to musingsandroughdrafts.com

Blog · corpus.blog/blogs/musingsandroughdrafts.com/posts

musingsandroughdrafts.com

musingsandroughdrafts.com

2026

Bricks and exponentials: A note on how I evaluate projects original ↗

1 Sept 2026

Don’t make allow unprincipled carveouts to your deontological principles original ↗

26 Aug 2026

Things that I want personally original ↗

6 Aug 2026

Irreducible complexity does not preclude Napoleon, nor strategically superhuman AI original ↗

31 Mar 2026

Notes on the Caplan-Bruenig “poverty” debate original ↗

15 Feb 2026

What’s up with the Anthropic board?original ↗

31 Jan 2026

Some questions that I have about AI and the overall strategic situation, and why I want to know original ↗

31 Jan 2026

Frame: Rationality as self-hobbling original ↗

12 Jan 2026

Why AIs aren’t power-seeking yet original ↗

11 Jan 2026

2025

Aspiring to rationality is choosing to be a purist original ↗

22 Dec 2025

Some further thoughts on Corrigibility and non-consequentialist motivations original ↗

1 Dec 2025

Humans are an evil god-species original ↗

27 Sept 2025

When does anarcho-capitalism fall back into an equilibrium of (micro) states?original ↗

25 Aug 2025

Reflections: Three categories of capital original ↗

14 Jul 2025

One insight to AGI implies hard takeoff, Zero insights implies soft original ↗

26 Jun 2025

Some notes on the semiconductor industry original ↗

21 Jun 2025

Notes on Tyler Cowen original ↗

14 Jun 2025

Some barely-considered feelings about how AI is going to play out original ↗

12 Jun 2025

2024

The “function” of government original ↗

29 Dec 2024

Reflecting on some regret about not trying to join and improve specific org(s)original ↗

7 Dec 2024

That no one rebuilt old OkCupid updates me a lot about how much the startup world actually makes the world better original ↗

8 Nov 2024

Moldbug’s insight original ↗

12 Oct 2024

Small cashflow software businesses might be over soon?original ↗

22 Sept 2024

How I wish I lived my life (since 2020)original ↗

7 Sept 2024

Lessons from and musings about Polytopia original ↗

26 Aug 2024

Some thoughts on giving into threats or not original ↗

10 Jul 2024

Some notes on my recent, sudden, improvement in mood original ↗

29 Jun 2024

Some powers have ethical valence original ↗

9 May 2024

A comment on Marxism.original ↗

19 Apr 2024

One projection of how AI could play out original ↗

17 Apr 2024

How I’m learning programming original ↗

17 Mar 2024

A series of vignettes for thinking about assisting corrupt regimes to prosecute crimes original ↗

1 Mar 2024

Some things I’ve come to understand from reading about D/s relationships original ↗

20 Feb 2024

Looking into corporate campaigns for animal welfare a bit original ↗

18 Jan 2024

2023

First pass on estimating how much I benefit from structural racism original ↗

28 Dec 2023

Some thoughts on Agents and Corrigibility original ↗

19 Dec 2023

Smart Sessions – Finally a (kinda) window-centric session manager original ↗

8 Nov 2023

Very low energy states seem to “contain” “compressed” fear or despair.original ↗

5 Nov 2023

Rough Thoughts on the White House Executive order on AI original ↗

2 Nov 2023

Some thoughts on Effective Altruism – Two memes original ↗

30 Oct 2023

Request for parellel conditional-market functionality original ↗

11 Oct 2023

A letter to my 20 year old self original ↗

5 Oct 2023

The meta-institutional bottleneck original ↗

24 Sept 2023

I side with my psych bugs original ↗

31 May 2023

Investing in wayfinding, over speed original ↗

4 Mar 2023

My current summary of the state of AI risk original ↗

17 Feb 2023

A note on “instrumental rationality”original ↗

13 Feb 2023

2022

What is of increasing marginal value, and what is of decreasing?original ↗

11 Oct 2022

My policy on attempting to get people crypreserved original ↗

11 Oct 2022

Disembodied materialists and embodied hippies?original ↗

7 Oct 2022

When is an event surprising enough that I should be confused?original ↗

1 Jul 2022

First conclusions from reflections on my life original ↗

12 Apr 2022

Paternalism is about outrage original ↗

29 Mar 2022

Thinking about how to orient to a hostile information environment, when you don’t have the skills or the inclination to become an epistemology nerd original ↗

3 Mar 2022

Some un-edited writeups of conversations that I’ve had with Ben Hoffman, and Jessica Taylor, and Michael Vassar original ↗

28 Jan 2022

2021

Two interlocking control systems original ↗

27 Sept 2021

Aversions inhibit slow focus original ↗

22 Sept 2021

On category I and category II problems original ↗

5 Apr 2021

My current high-level strategic picture of the world original ↗

24 Mar 2021

How do we prepare for final crunch time? – Some initial thoughts original ↗

12 Mar 2021

2020

Tinder hookups displace hookups that are more likely to lead to relationships?original ↗

21 Dec 2020

Social reasoning about two clusters of smart people original ↗

20 Aug 2020

A view of the main kinds of problems facing us original ↗

14 Aug 2020

Why is the media consumption of adult millennials the same as it was when they were children?original ↗

8 Aug 2020

Impressions on what is happening in the US in this decade original ↗

3 Jul 2020

Values are extrapolated urges original ↗

31 May 2020

A taxonomy of Cruxes original ↗

27 May 2020

A conversational pattern I observe original ↗

25 May 2020

Some musings on historical contingency, randomness, and my own desire to be an optimizer original ↗

6 May 2020

Holding both the positive aspects of a problem and reality of there being a problem original ↗

6 May 2020

Engineering vs. Valence original ↗

23 Apr 2020

I have a new Blog original ↗

18 Apr 2020

Leading indicators are crucial for control systems original ↗

25 Mar 2020

Some sleep thoughts very roughly original ↗

28 Feb 2020

Modes, not traits, and decoupling cognitive energy from intentionality original ↗

10 Feb 2020

Coordinating Conversation I: micro-coordination of intention original ↗

21 Jan 2020

Intro to some draft posts on Double Crux, Epistemic Mediation, and Conversational Facilitation original ↗

21 Jan 2020

Emotional misattribution? Mental structures you can access from states original ↗

14 Jan 2020

Physiological arousal / activation / agitation original ↗

12 Jan 2020

Full productivity outline original ↗

4 Jan 2020

Your visual imagery gives insight into your motivation for action and emotion original ↗

4 Jan 2020

2019

Heuristics to steer by in study exploration original ↗

30 Dec 2019

Ideology/narrative stabilizes path-dependent equilibria original ↗

9 Dec 2019

The Basic Intervention Set for Productive Flow, and That, Generalized original ↗

5 Dec 2019

The automatic alignment of the flow through effects of obliterating fundamental problems.original ↗

1 Dec 2019

Anxiety and distraction original ↗

30 Nov 2019

Thoughts on power and Goodness original ↗

30 Nov 2019

Notes on my Focusing bottlenecks original ↗

24 Nov 2019

Notes on murder aversion original ↗

20 Nov 2019

Conceptual precision breaks cooperation, but is necessary for robust cooperation original ↗

15 Nov 2019

Consideration Factoring: a relative of Double Crux original ↗

14 Nov 2019

Metacognitive space original ↗

13 Nov 2019

Desires vs. reflexes original ↗

12 Nov 2019

Some musings on human brutality and human evil original ↗

11 Nov 2019

Two models of anxiety original ↗

9 Nov 2019

Some musings about exercise and time discount rates original ↗

8 Nov 2019

Some notes on Von Neumann, as a human being original ↗

26 Oct 2019

Basic Double Crux pattern example original ↗

27 Sept 2019

The Basic Double Crux Pattern original ↗

24 Sept 2019

Some things I think about Double Crux and related topics original ↗

24 Sept 2019