41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a19e92523", "title": "My 2025 AI predictions and 2024 evaluations", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/my-2025-ai-predictions-and-2024-evaluations-2/", "published_at": "2025-01-14T01:44:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1a9d01c0", "title": "What do you mean by \"overconfident\"?", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/what-do-you-mean-by-overconfidence/", "published_at": "2024-05-14T04:40:17+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1ad5a4fa", "title": "A template for GPT-4.5 Forecasting (and my forecasts)", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/a-template-for-gpt-4-5-forecasting-and-my-forecasts/", "published_at": "2024-03-13T19:53:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1bc770cf", "title": "Brief thoughts on forecasting/epistemics interventions", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/forecasting-interventions/", "published_at": "2024-03-08T05:53:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1bf7fbef", "title": "Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/sharing-scenario-forecasting/", "published_at": "2024-03-08T02:48:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1c9527a4", "title": "Post on AI Strategy Nearcasting", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/new-post-on-transformative-ai-strategy-nearcasting/", "published_at": "2022-11-28T16:21:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1d72fcaf", "title": "My review of \"Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?\"", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/my-review-of/", "published_at": "2022-09-30T12:29:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1dd54dd6", "title": "Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/samotsvetys-ai-risk-forecasts/", "published_at": "2022-09-09T04:00:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1e1717f4", "title": "My take on What We Owe The Future", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/wwotf-review/", "published_at": "2022-09-01T18:07:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1f058207", "title": "Discussion on utilizing AI for alignment", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/utilizing-ai-for-alignment/", "published_at": "2022-08-23T02:35:15+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1f346ae1", "title": "Prioritizing x-risks may require caring about future people", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/x-risks-longtermism/", "published_at": "2022-08-14T00:52:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a1fc8102c", "title": "Reasons I’ve been hesitant about high levels of near-ish AI risk", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/hesitant-ai-risk/", "published_at": "2022-07-22T01:30:26+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a20397375", "title": "Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/retro/", "published_at": "2022-07-21T00:05:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a20c0002c", "title": "Personal update: EA entrepreneurship, mental health, and what's next", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/personal-update/", "published_at": "2022-07-19T23:14:28+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08779-6c30-73e1-a344-8f0a217f7109", "title": "Matrix Moments", "url": "https://www.foxy-scout.com/matrix-moments/", "published_at": "2022-01-30T22:20:06+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog

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2025

My 2025 AI predictions and 2024 evaluations original ↗

14 Jan 2025

2024

What do you mean by "overconfident"?original ↗

14 May 2024

A template for GPT-4.5 Forecasting (and my forecasts)original ↗

13 Mar 2024

Brief thoughts on forecasting/epistemics interventions original ↗

8 Mar 2024

Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings original ↗

8 Mar 2024

2022

Post on AI Strategy Nearcasting original ↗

28 Nov 2022

My review of "Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?"original ↗

30 Sept 2022

Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts original ↗

9 Sept 2022

My take on What We Owe The Future original ↗

1 Sept 2022

Discussion on utilizing AI for alignment original ↗

23 Aug 2022

Prioritizing x-risks may require caring about future people original ↗

14 Aug 2022

Reasons I’ve been hesitant about high levels of near-ish AI risk original ↗

22 Jul 2022

Personal forecasting retrospective: 2020-2022 original ↗

21 Jul 2022

Personal update: EA entrepreneurship, mental health, and what's next original ↗

19 Jul 2022

Matrix Moments original ↗

30 Jan 2022