corpus.blog
41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ff99771f2", "title": "The Newer Colossus", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2026/07/04/the-newer-colossus/", "published_at": "2026-07-04T23:00:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffa8f00b8", "title": "Consider donating to AI safety champion Scott Wiener", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2025/10/22/consider-donating-to-ai-safety-champion-scott-wiener/", "published_at": "2025-10-22T18:38:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffb398579", "title": "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2025/10/20/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act/", "published_at": "2025-10-20T07:00:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffb4cf4f0", "title": "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/", "published_at": "2025-03-24T16:46:39+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffb7980e1", "title": "Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election day", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2024/11/14/seven-lessons-i-didnt-learn-from-election-day/", "published_at": "2024-11-14T18:27:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffc544544", "title": "My puzzles for the 2024 LessOnline puzzle hunt", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2024/06/22/my-puzzles-for-the-lessonline-puzzle-hunt/", "published_at": "2024-06-22T16:17:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffcaf3d4a", "title": "Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2024/05/09/algorithmic-bayesian-epistemology/", "published_at": "2024-05-09T07:12:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffd11593b", "title": "My hour of memoryless lucidity", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2024/05/04/my-hour-of-memoryless-lucidity/", "published_at": "2024-05-04T01:30:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffd9a92ed", "title": "How much do you believe your results?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2023/05/05/how-much-do-you-believe-your-results/", "published_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08774-af2b-7322-8696-311ffe3d08ad", "title": "Grading my 2021 predictions", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2022/04/17/grading-my-2021-predictions/", "published_at": "2022-04-17T16:52:31+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f3ac8a21", "title": "Introducing EA-nasir", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2022/04/01/introducing-ea-nasir/", "published_at": "2022-04-01T07:53:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f41ab679", "title": "Puzzle: A More Earthly Calendar", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/11/24/puzzle-a-more-earthly-calendar/", "published_at": "2021-11-24T00:26:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f4669660", "title": "Make the tennis service box smaller", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/08/30/make-the-tennis-service-box-smaller/", "published_at": "2021-08-30T04:59:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f4b59942", "title": "Lexeme jest: Eleven excellent genres", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/08/13/lexeme-jest-eleven-excellent-genres/", "published_at": "2021-08-13T00:57:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f51ff28d", "title": "Can group identity be a force for good?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/07/04/can-tribalism-be-a-force-for-good/", "published_at": "2021-07-04T02:15:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f554c24e", "title": "My NYC mayoral ballot", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/06/08/my-nyc-mayoral-ballot/", "published_at": "2021-06-08T21:16:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f5818b85", "title": "Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/06/05/social-behavior-curves-equilibria-and-radicalism/", "published_at": "2021-06-05T01:15:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f5dc74d6", "title": "My favorite puzzles from the 2021 MIT Mystery Hunt", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/03/29/my-favorite-puzzles-from-the-2021-mit-mystery-hunt/", "published_at": "2021-03-29T06:34:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f688b396", "title": "Luck and skill in beauty pageants", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/03/26/chance-and-skill-in-beauty-pageants/", "published_at": "2021-03-26T03:00:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c50b-6d65-73ac-8adc-d2f6f6b98a37", "title": "When the game stops, where will the buck stop?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/02/18/when-the-game-stops-where-will-the-buck-stop/", "published_at": "2021-02-18T05:13:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6a7c2942a", "title": "Pseudorandomness contest: Prizes, results, and analysis", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/01/15/pseudorandomness-contest-results-and-analysis/", "published_at": "2021-01-15T04:32:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6a8a450e0", "title": "Grading my 2020 predictions", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/01/06/grading-my-2020-predictions/", "published_at": "2021-01-06T23:56:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6a9190bee", "title": "Overall numbers won’t show the English strain coming", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2021/01/03/overall-numbers-wont-show-the-english-strain-coming/", "published_at": "2021-01-03T02:57:03+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6a9e4ca80", "title": "Predictions for 2021", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/12/31/predictions-for-2021/", "published_at": "2020-12-31T06:09:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6aa04e1e7", "title": "Alike minds think great", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/12/26/alike-minds-think-great/", "published_at": "2020-12-26T19:31:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6aaa46cc4", "title": "Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/12/17/pseudorandomness-contest-round-2/", "published_at": "2020-12-17T05:26:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6aae5cf87", "title": "Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/12/13/pseudorandomness-contest-round-1/", "published_at": "2020-12-13T01:20:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6abd2bb40", "title": "Virtue points", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/12/10/virtue-points/", "published_at": "2020-12-10T06:25:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6acb7fe13", "title": "Was Nate Silver’s model wrong?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/12/07/was-nate-silver-wrong/", "published_at": "2020-12-07T05:23:41+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c51b-2b3b-71a8-b220-c4f6acf563a8", "title": "Puzzle solution/hints/comments: Losers and Winners", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/11/30/puzzle-solution-hints-comments-losers-and-winners/", "published_at": "2020-11-30T05:46:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b75e29a6b0", "title": "An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/11/29/an-elegant-proof-of-laplaces-rule-of-succession/", "published_at": "2020-11-29T21:44:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b75e971515", "title": "A pragmatic guide to voting in the 2020 election", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/10/08/a-pragmatic-guide-to-voting-in-the-2020-election/", "published_at": "2020-10-08T19:22:47+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b75ee01a04", "title": "Your vote matters — probably more than you think", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/10/08/your-vote-matters-way-more-than-you-think/", "published_at": "2020-10-08T18:37:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b75f1428ed", "title": "Puzzle: Losers and Winners", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/09/15/puzzle-losers-and-winners/", "published_at": "2020-09-15T00:36:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b75f8e6801", "title": "Pooled COVID testing in the real world", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/09/07/pooled-testing-in-the-real-world/", "published_at": "2020-09-07T07:23:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b75fcd0dbd", "title": "Jelle’s marbles have skill", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/09/06/jelles-marbles-have-skill/", "published_at": "2020-09-06T21:13:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b760493fab", "title": "Puzzle solution/hints: A Choral Arrangement", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/08/20/puzzle-solution-hints-a-choral-arrangement/", "published_at": "2020-08-20T18:33:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b760ef5d11", "title": "An exploration of exploitation bias", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/07/05/an-exploration-of-exploitation-bias/", "published_at": "2020-07-05T00:11:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b761028e62", "title": "Against “read or defer” norms", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/06/27/against-read-or-defer-norms/", "published_at": "2020-06-27T04:39:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c526-468e-7233-b61f-a0b761073c21", "title": "Puzzle: A Choral Arrangement", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/05/07/puzzle-a-choral-arrangement/", "published_at": "2020-05-07T20:52:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665b527130", "title": "Chris the Criminal: A mathematical puzzle", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/05/01/chris-the-criminal-a-mathematical-puzzle/", "published_at": "2020-05-01T00:08:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665bb04c49", "title": "How to test and trace if you don’t have enough tests", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/04/26/how-to-test-and-trace-if-you-dont-have-enough-tests/", "published_at": "2020-04-26T02:37:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665ca2991a", "title": "Scoring rules part 3: Incentivizing precision", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/04/24/scoring-rules-part-3-incentivizing-precision/", "published_at": "2020-04-24T00:35:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665d10e184", "title": "Scoring rules part 2: Calibration does not imply classification", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/02/14/scoring-rules-part-2-calibration-does-not-imply-classification/", "published_at": "2020-02-14T06:17:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665d8320f7", "title": "Scoring rules part 1: Eliciting truthful predictions", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/02/14/scoring-rules-part-1-eliciting-truthful-predictions/", "published_at": "2020-02-14T03:12:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665e3f3f25", "title": "Thoughts on the 2020 Democratic presidential primary", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/02/02/unexpected-values-2020-democratic-primary-endorsement/", "published_at": "2020-02-02T18:49:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665e4e3495", "title": "My favorite puzzles from the 2020 MIT Mystery Hunt", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/01/24/my-favorite-puzzles-from-the-2020-mit-mystery-hunt/", "published_at": "2020-01-24T06:31:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665f326118", "title": "My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2020/01/10/my-2020-democratic-primary-predictions-pass-the-smell-test/", "published_at": "2020-01-10T05:57:10+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94665f918206", "title": "Predictions for 2020", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/12/29/predictions-for-2020/", "published_at": "2019-12-29T03:05:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c531-8b8a-722c-8d6c-94666086f2ae", "title": "Pete’s problem", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/12/28/petes-problem/", "published_at": "2019-12-28T02:52:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-602568e69da5", "title": "Beyond the mean, median, and mode", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/12/26/beyond-the-mean-median-and-mode/", "published_at": "2019-12-26T06:29:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-602569880373", "title": "Finding Shawn Mendes", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/11/26/finding-shawn-mendes/", "published_at": "2019-11-26T06:14:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-602569a55c66", "title": "Should FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity index have a wider spread?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/11/08/should-fivethirtyeights-elasticity-index-have-a-wider-spread/", "published_at": "2019-11-08T22:00:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256a3f7a6a", "title": "A few things to watch this Tuesday", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/11/04/a-few-things-to-watch-this-tuesday/", "published_at": "2019-11-04T04:57:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256a88817f", "title": "What to do about undefined expectations?", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/11/02/what-to-do-about-undefined-expectations/", "published_at": "2019-11-02T05:17:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256a9b7b17", "title": "Lofty expectations", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/10/02/lofty-expectations/", "published_at": "2019-10-02T22:00:10+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256aa5228f", "title": "General election polls *are* predictive one year out", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/09/29/general-election-polls-are-predictive-one-year-out/", "published_at": "2019-09-29T22:37:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256b81f440", "title": "Least squares regression isn’t arbitrary", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/09/17/least-squares-regression-isnt-arbitrary/", "published_at": "2019-09-17T22:00:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256bbdc2ed", "title": "Incentives in the election-charity platform", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/09/15/incentives-in-the-election-charity-platform/", "published_at": "2019-09-15T22:00:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c53b-93ed-72af-be1c-60256c830d1d", "title": "Provisional opposition", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/09/12/provisional-opposition/", "published_at": "2019-09-12T22:00:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c544-bb69-72c7-8274-9970f9eaa184", "title": "Are we due for another recession? Probably.", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/09/10/are-we-due-for-another-recession-probably/", "published_at": "2019-09-10T22:00:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0c544-bb69-72c7-8274-9970fad14084", "title": "Getting money out of politics… and into charity", "url": "https://ericneyman.blog/2019/09/08/getting-money-out-of-politics-and-into-charity/", "published_at": "2019-09-08T22:00:36+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog
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ericneyman.blog

ericneyman.blog

2026

The Newer Colossusoriginal ↗
4 Jul 2026

2025

Consider donating to AI safety champion Scott Wieneroriginal ↗
22 Oct 2025
Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Actoriginal ↗
20 Oct 2025
Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?original ↗
24 Mar 2025

2024

Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election dayoriginal ↗
14 Nov 2024
My puzzles for the 2024 LessOnline puzzle huntoriginal ↗
22 Jun 2024
Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemologyoriginal ↗
9 May 2024
My hour of memoryless lucidityoriginal ↗
4 May 2024

2023

How much do you believe your results?original ↗
5 May 2023

2022

Grading my 2021 predictionsoriginal ↗
17 Apr 2022
Introducing EA-nasiroriginal ↗
1 Apr 2022

2021

Puzzle: A More Earthly Calendaroriginal ↗
24 Nov 2021
Make the tennis service box smalleroriginal ↗
30 Aug 2021
Lexeme jest: Eleven excellent genresoriginal ↗
13 Aug 2021
Can group identity be a force for good?original ↗
4 Jul 2021
My NYC mayoral ballotoriginal ↗
8 Jun 2021
Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalismoriginal ↗
5 Jun 2021
My favorite puzzles from the 2021 MIT Mystery Huntoriginal ↗
29 Mar 2021
Luck and skill in beauty pageantsoriginal ↗
26 Mar 2021
When the game stops, where will the buck stop?original ↗
18 Feb 2021
Pseudorandomness contest: Prizes, results, and analysisoriginal ↗
15 Jan 2021
Grading my 2020 predictionsoriginal ↗
6 Jan 2021
Overall numbers won’t show the English strain comingoriginal ↗
3 Jan 2021

2020

Predictions for 2021original ↗
31 Dec 2020
Alike minds think greatoriginal ↗
26 Dec 2020
Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2original ↗
17 Dec 2020
Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1original ↗
13 Dec 2020
Virtue pointsoriginal ↗
10 Dec 2020
Was Nate Silver’s model wrong?original ↗
7 Dec 2020
Puzzle solution/hints/comments: Losers and Winnersoriginal ↗
30 Nov 2020
An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of successionoriginal ↗
29 Nov 2020
A pragmatic guide to voting in the 2020 electionoriginal ↗
8 Oct 2020
Your vote matters — probably more than you thinkoriginal ↗
8 Oct 2020
Puzzle: Losers and Winnersoriginal ↗
15 Sept 2020
Pooled COVID testing in the real worldoriginal ↗
7 Sept 2020
Jelle’s marbles have skilloriginal ↗
6 Sept 2020
Puzzle solution/hints: A Choral Arrangementoriginal ↗
20 Aug 2020
An exploration of exploitation biasoriginal ↗
5 Jul 2020
Against “read or defer” normsoriginal ↗
27 Jun 2020
Puzzle: A Choral Arrangementoriginal ↗
7 May 2020
Chris the Criminal: A mathematical puzzleoriginal ↗
1 May 2020
How to test and trace if you don’t have enough testsoriginal ↗
26 Apr 2020
Scoring rules part 3: Incentivizing precisionoriginal ↗
24 Apr 2020
Scoring rules part 2: Calibration does not imply classificationoriginal ↗
14 Feb 2020
Scoring rules part 1: Eliciting truthful predictionsoriginal ↗
14 Feb 2020
Thoughts on the 2020 Democratic presidential primaryoriginal ↗
2 Feb 2020
My favorite puzzles from the 2020 MIT Mystery Huntoriginal ↗
24 Jan 2020
My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell testoriginal ↗
10 Jan 2020

2019

Predictions for 2020original ↗
29 Dec 2019
Pete’s problemoriginal ↗
28 Dec 2019
Beyond the mean, median, and modeoriginal ↗
26 Dec 2019
Finding Shawn Mendesoriginal ↗
26 Nov 2019
Should FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity index have a wider spread?original ↗
8 Nov 2019
A few things to watch this Tuesdayoriginal ↗
4 Nov 2019
What to do about undefined expectations?original ↗
2 Nov 2019
Lofty expectationsoriginal ↗
2 Oct 2019
General election polls *are* predictive one year outoriginal ↗
29 Sept 2019
Least squares regression isn’t arbitraryoriginal ↗
17 Sept 2019
Incentives in the election-charity platformoriginal ↗
15 Sept 2019
Provisional oppositionoriginal ↗
12 Sept 2019
Are we due for another recession? Probably.original ↗
10 Sept 2019
Getting money out of politics… and into charityoriginal ↗
8 Sept 2019