corpus.blog
41554 blogs · [ { "id": "01a0e449-558c-70fa-96a8-5910f38e9983", "title": "The Wrath of Psychology", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-wrath-of-psychology/", "published_at": "2026-09-25T14:57:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50be-72bb-9ee2-918077987559", "title": "Why Fair Coins Tend to Land on the Side They Started — A Wobbly Coin Flip Simulator", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/why-fair-coins-tend-to-land-on-the-side-they-started-a-wobbly-coin-flip-simulator/", "published_at": "2026-08-11T08:52:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50be-72bb-9ee2-918077dffb68", "title": "An AI Decryption of Feynman’s Napkin", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/an-ai-decryption-of-feynmans-napkin/", "published_at": "2026-06-17T07:48:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50bf-7333-88a0-4bbb6976826d", "title": "Why Academics Should Use AI for Writing: A Case Study", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/why-academics-should-use-ai-for-writing-a-case-study/", "published_at": "2026-05-28T17:13:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50bf-7333-88a0-4bbb69f38bd6", "title": "There is No Such Thing as Forgetting (Says an English Opium-Eater)", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/there-is-no-such-thing-as-forgetting-says-an-english-opium-eater/", "published_at": "2026-05-06T08:41:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50bf-7333-88a0-4bbb6a2e584d", "title": "A Transcendental Dance", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-transcendental-dance/", "published_at": "2026-04-14T18:20:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50bf-7333-88a0-4bbb6a7f2915", "title": "YouTube Lecture by Johnny van Doorn on “Theory and Practice of Bayesian Inference Using JASP”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/youtube-lecture-by-johnny-van-doorn-on-theory-and-practice-of-bayesian-inference-using-jasp/", "published_at": "2026-03-05T12:41:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50bf-7333-88a0-4bbb6aed92ee", "title": "Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers: The Cartoon", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayesian-thinking-for-toddlers-the-cartoon/", "published_at": "2026-02-04T13:20:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a08737-50bf-7333-88a0-4bbb6bad6da9", "title": "Redefine Statistical Significance Part XXI: Edgeworth Proposed the .005 Criterion Back in 1885", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/redefine-statistical-significance-part-xxi-edgeworth-proposed-the-005-criterion-back-in-1885/", "published_at": "2026-01-14T11:36:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec3de00ac", "title": "A Geometric Intuition for the Logarithm", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-geometric-intuition-for-the-logarithm/", "published_at": "2025-10-31T15:26:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec46bf479", "title": "From P-values to Bayes Factors with eJAB", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/from-p-values-to-bayes-factors-with-ejab/", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:21:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec4938b6d", "title": "“The idea is brilliant and relevant”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-idea-is-brilliant-and-relevant/", "published_at": "2025-10-10T13:43:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec4aedd3b", "title": "A Chess Scandal Revisited II – Kramnik Responds", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-chess-scandal-revisited-ii-kramnik-responds/", "published_at": "2025-10-04T12:36:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec4f8279c", "title": "A Chess Scandal Revisited – Why Nakamura is Right About Cherry-Picking", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-chess-scandal-revisited-why-nakamura-is-right-about-cherry-picking/", "published_at": "2025-09-27T12:06:01+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec5440d15", "title": "Sir Harold Jeffreys Graces the Cover of “De Psycholoog”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/sir-harold-jeffreys-graces-the-cover-of-de-psycholoog/", "published_at": "2025-09-17T20:15:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e449-1eac-721f-b997-0f6ec55c0263", "title": "The Hypothesis-Testing Philosophy of Harold Jeffreys Expressed As a 13-Word Slogan", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-hypothesis-testing-philosophy-of-harold-jeffreys-expressed-as-a-13-word-slogan/", "published_at": "2025-06-04T16:45:32+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cdbbf7133", "title": "Sir Harold Jeffreys and His Cat: A Painting and a Painful Anecdote", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/sir-harold-jeffreys-and-his-cat-a-painting-and-a-painful-anecdote/", "published_at": "2025-05-13T22:32:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cdc14c634", "title": "Geometric Intuition for a Surprising Result", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/geometric-intuition-for-a-surprising-result/", "published_at": "2025-05-07T07:38:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cdc9284ed", "title": "Introducing the Diamond Open-Access “Journal of Robustness Reports”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/introducing-the-diamond-open-access-journal-of-robustness-reports/", "published_at": "2025-04-17T00:43:43+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cdcfad3eb", "title": "Ockham’s Razor with Polyhedral Dice: Jeffreys Already Did it", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/ockhams-razor-with-polyhedral-dice-jeffreys-already-did-it/", "published_at": "2025-03-23T08:16:48+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cdd7d84a4", "title": "Donald Trump’s Presidency and the Power of God", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/donald-trumps-presidency-and-the-power-of-god/", "published_at": "2025-01-21T16:04:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cde4ecaa6", "title": "Do the Data Speak for Themselves? A Bayesian Analysis of a Labor Law Case", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/do-the-data-speak-for-themselves-a-bayesian-analysis-of-a-labor-law-case/", "published_at": "2024-12-08T14:55:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cde9ebd2f", "title": "The Value of Science", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-value-of-science/", "published_at": "2024-11-12T20:10:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e454-b1a1-712f-9662-777cdeb1df09", "title": "Bayesian Conference Next Week in Amsterdam: Advances in Network Modeling, Demography, and More", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayesian-conference-next-week-in-amsterdam-advances-in-network-modeling-demography-and-more/", "published_at": "2024-10-11T08:02:11+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e71f2628f1", "title": "Another Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition: The Answer", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/another-brief-test-of-your-bayesian-intuition-the-answer/", "published_at": "2024-10-03T08:39:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e7200fb857", "title": "Too Good to be True: A “Fake” Podcast on how to go from p-values to Bayes Factors", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/too-good-to-be-true-a-fake-podcast-on-how-to-go-from-p-values-to-bayes-factors/", "published_at": "2024-09-22T10:14:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e7210cc0d5", "title": "Another Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/another-brief-test-of-your-bayesian-intuition/", "published_at": "2024-09-20T09:17:53+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e721d68249", "title": "How to Memorize Bayes’ Rule", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/how-to-memorize-bayes-rule/", "published_at": "2024-09-06T11:24:26+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e721fc6a30", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [11.] Nine More Chapers on Bayesian Hypothesis Testing", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-11-nine-more-chapers-on-bayesian-hypothesis-testing/", "published_at": "2024-08-12T07:36:13+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e72257b77e", "title": "Aleatory Uncertainty and the River Rubicon", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/aleatory-uncertainty-and-the-river-rubicon/", "published_at": "2024-08-06T22:32:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e72301cb49", "title": "Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter II: The Dubner Maggid", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/origin-of-the-texas-sharpshooter-ii-the-dubner-maggid/", "published_at": "2024-07-14T09:14:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e460-a4e8-728c-9a46-f9e723666579", "title": "Clarkson’s Farm and the Clarkson Ring", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/clarksons-farm-and-the-clarkson-ring/", "published_at": "2024-06-26T13:07:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5aee960e2", "title": "Psychological Methods Lab Receives the 2024 Ammodo Science Award: The Video", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/psychological-methods-lab-receives-the-2024-ammodo-science-award-the-video/", "published_at": "2024-06-06T22:24:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5afcd9067", "title": "Learning Statistics from Counterexamples: A New Paper by Jim Berger", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/learning-statistics-from-counterexamples-a-new-paper-by-jim-berger/", "published_at": "2024-05-24T12:15:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5afe61e0e", "title": "Preprint: Introducing Synchronous Robustness Reports", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-introducing-synchronous-robustness-reports/", "published_at": "2024-05-21T09:54:44+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5b03fa1ce", "title": "Two Grotesque-esque Chess Problems", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/two-grotesque-esque-chess-problems/", "published_at": "2024-05-05T00:34:00+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5b05f0b16", "title": "A Good Check on the Bayes Factor", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-good-check-on-the-bayes-factor/", "published_at": "2024-04-24T07:37:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5b0d22ef4", "title": "The University of Amsterdam Bans The Teaching of P-Values", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-university-of-amsterdam-bans-the-teaching-of-p-values/", "published_at": "2024-04-01T08:00:51+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5b168d3b4", "title": "Classroom Demonstration of Ockham’s Razor with Polyhedral Dice", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/classroom-demonstration-of-ockhams-razor-with-polyhedral-dice/", "published_at": "2024-03-08T12:11:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e469-dec9-71db-abfe-90f5b19b5045", "title": "Does Statistical Amateurism Cause Questionable Research Practices? Book Review of “Never Waste a Good Crisis”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/does-statistical-amateurism-cause-questionable-research-practices-book-review-of-never-waste-a-good-crisis/", "published_at": "2024-02-20T06:21:15+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f23d8e3e1d", "title": "A Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition: The Answer", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-brief-test-of-your-bayesian-intuition-the-answer/", "published_at": "2024-02-06T09:03:19+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f23e5740c9", "title": "A Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-brief-test-of-your-bayesian-intuition/", "published_at": "2024-01-22T08:00:23+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f23f31bdfe", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [10.] The Principle of Parsimony", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-10-the-principle-of-parsimony/", "published_at": "2023-12-25T15:34:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f23f4d7dce", "title": "Coin Tossing Paper Wins Chinese IgNobel “Pineapple” Award", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/coin-tossing-paper-wins-chinese-ignobel-pineapple-award/", "published_at": "2023-12-01T12:14:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f23f6739da", "title": "This Prior Distribution is Fine", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/this-prior-distribution-is-fine/", "published_at": "2023-11-27T07:58:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f23ffe9d65", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [9.] Wrinch and Jeffreys to the Rescue", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-9-wrinch-and-jeffreys-to-the-rescue/", "published_at": "2023-11-22T09:29:49+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f24019c33d", "title": "Bayes Factors for Human versus ChatGPT Authorship Discrimination: Ultrafast Review of Bozza et al. (2023)", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayes-factors-for-human-versus-chatgpt-authorship-discrimination-ultrafast-review-of-bozza-et-al-2023/", "published_at": "2023-11-09T21:53:27+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e471-0907-7249-be8e-69f240c083b9", "title": "Plan Z: Why Politicians Should Ban Government-Funded Research from Being Published in Commercial Outlets", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/plan-z-why-politicians-should-ban-government-funded-research-from-being-published-in-commercial-outlets/", "published_at": "2023-11-04T08:43:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af089c82b35", "title": "Preprint: Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-fair-coins-tend-to-land-on-the-same-side-they-started-evidence-from-350757-flips/", "published_at": "2023-10-13T12:56:46+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af089e11756", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [8.] A Bayesian Reading List", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-8-a-bayesian-reading-list/", "published_at": "2023-09-28T09:29:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af089ff22a1", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [7.] Buffon’s Needle and the Pancake Puzzle", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-7-buffons-needle-and-the-pancake-puzzle/", "published_at": "2023-09-22T07:42:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af08a599887", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [6.] The Rule of Succession and The Problem of Points", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-6-the-rule-of-succession-and-the-problem-of-points/", "published_at": "2023-09-19T08:39:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af08ad3ed6a", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [5.] Learning from the Likelihood Ratio", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-5-learning-from-the-likelihood-ratio/", "published_at": "2023-09-13T20:05:20+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af08b8c4aea", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [4.] Measuring Probability and Coherence", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-4-measuring-probability-and-coherence/", "published_at": "2023-09-11T15:05:32+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af08b9ed67c", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [3.] The Rules of Probability", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-3-the-rules-of-probability/", "published_at": "2023-09-08T09:40:59+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e479-b361-7251-9119-3af08c5d2025", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [2.] The Nature of Probability", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-2-the-nature-of-probability/", "published_at": "2023-09-06T14:29:40+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e39a9bb3c", "title": "A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [1.] Preface, Synopsis, JASP", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference-1-preface-synopsis-jasp/", "published_at": "2023-09-04T23:25:30+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3aa824a4", "title": "The Tomb of Thomas Bayes in 2023", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-tomb-of-thomas-bayes-in-2023/", "published_at": "2023-09-03T12:50:04+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3b826fa9", "title": "Coming Up: A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/coming-up-a-free-course-book-on-bayesian-inference/", "published_at": "2023-08-24T15:40:38+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3bd04c7f", "title": "The Psi of Eros", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-psi-of-eros/", "published_at": "2023-07-31T07:00:26+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3c372257", "title": "Order-restrictions in JAGS: Five Methods Fail, One Method Succeeds", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/order-restrictions-in-jags-five-methods-fail-one-method-succeeds/", "published_at": "2023-07-24T10:54:36+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3d19f552", "title": "What Determines the Price of LEGO Sets? A Bayesian Analysis with Twists and Turns", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/what-determines-the-price-of-lego-sets-a-bayesian-analysis-with-twists-and-turns/", "published_at": "2023-07-10T07:00:33+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3db25eea", "title": "Visualizing the Equation for the Sample Correlation Coefficient", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/visualizing-the-equation-for-the-sample-correlation-coefficient/", "published_at": "2023-07-03T07:00:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e481-67b1-7077-b068-194e3e354125", "title": "Rosenkrantz on Severity and the Problem of Old Evidence", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/rosenkrantz-on-severity-and-the-problem-of-old-evidence/", "published_at": "2023-04-03T10:00:50+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0a39fac0", "title": "The Problem of Old Evidence", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-problem-of-old-evidence/", "published_at": "2023-03-08T14:00:08+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0ad7338d", "title": "Bayesian Inference in Three Minutes", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayesian-inference-in-three-minutes/", "published_at": "2023-02-23T15:34:31+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0b87ece3", "title": "A Presentation on Transparency in Science and Statistics", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-presentation-on-transparency-in-science-and-statistics/", "published_at": "2023-02-14T15:00:16+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0c303a33", "title": "Redefine Statistical Significance XX: A Chat on P-values with ChatGPT", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/redefine-statistical-significance-xx-a-chat-on-p-values-with-chatgpt/", "published_at": "2023-02-08T18:39:18+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0cc3d4a2", "title": "Bayes Factors for Those who Hate Bayes Factors, Part III: The Coherence Plot", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayes-factors-for-those-who-hate-bayes-factors-part-iii-the-coherence-plot/", "published_at": "2023-01-09T15:00:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0cecdf1a", "title": "Bayes Factors for Those who Hate Bayes Factors, Part II: Lord Ludicrus, Vampire Count of Incoherence, Insists on a Dance", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayes-factors-for-those-who-hate-bayes-factors-part-ii-lord-ludicrus-vampire-count-of-incoherence-insists-on-a-dance/", "published_at": "2022-12-14T15:00:56+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0cff9560", "title": "Rejoinder – No Evidence for Nudging After Adjusting for Publication Bias", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/rejoinder-no-evidence-for-nudging/", "published_at": "2022-11-03T08:00:06+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e490-b4a2-7002-aec2-672a0d391470", "title": "Bayesian Modeling for Cognitive Science: A Workshop in Amsterdam", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayesian-modeling-for-cognitive-science-a-workshop-in-amsterdam/", "published_at": "2022-06-28T14:00:52+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2ce31689", "title": "Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: A Hybrid JASP Workshop in Amsterdam", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/theory-and-practice-of-bayesian-hypothesis-testing-a-hybrid-jasp-workshop-in-amsterdam/", "published_at": "2022-06-27T14:00:55+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2d090bc2", "title": "Let’s Make Some Enemies: A Podcast on “Learning Bayesian Statistics”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/lets-make-some-enemies-a-podcast-on-learning-bayesian-statistics/", "published_at": "2022-05-31T14:00:29+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2da562d3", "title": "Henri Poincaré: Unconscious Thought Theory Avant la Lettre", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/henri-poincare-unconscious-thought-theory-avant-la-lettre/", "published_at": "2022-04-19T14:00:05+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2e7fec5d", "title": "A Deterministic View on Life", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-deterministic-view-on-life/", "published_at": "2022-04-12T14:00:27+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2e87ba5b", "title": "From p-values to Bayes Factors with 3p√n", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/from-p-values-to-bayes-factors-with-3p%e2%88%9an/", "published_at": "2022-02-22T15:00:34+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2ed6a009", "title": "A Many-Analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-many-analysts-approach-to-the-relation-between-religiosity-and-well-being/", "published_at": "2022-02-07T15:00:25+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2ee4bcf3", "title": "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About the Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox But Were Afraid to Ask", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-the-jeffreys-lindley-paradox-but-were-afraid-to-ask/", "published_at": "2022-01-24T15:00:15+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4a3-14ab-739f-a163-d5cd2f1f64dd", "title": "Adjusting for Publication Bias with JASP & R", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/adjusting-for-publication-bias-with-jasp-r/", "published_at": "2021-11-17T14:00:58+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad973069323", "title": "Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis in Medicine", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/bayesian-model-averaged-meta-analysis-in-medicine/", "published_at": "2021-11-09T15:00:07+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad97325ff8a", "title": "Literal and Liberal Translations of Bertrand’s Box Paradox", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/literal-and-liberal-translations-of-bertrands-box-paradox/", "published_at": "2021-09-30T14:00:22+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad973cd2907", "title": "Preprint: Computing and Using Inclusion Bayes Factors for Mixed Fixed and Random Effect Diffusion Decision Models", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/computing-and-using-inclusion-bayes-factors-for-mixed-fixed-and-randomeffect-diffusion-decision-models/", "published_at": "2021-07-08T14:00:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad97413ef49", "title": "Preprint: No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis With Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methods", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-no-need-to-choose-robust-bayesian-meta-analysis-with-competing-publication-bias-adjustment-methods/", "published_at": "2021-06-18T14:00:09+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad9746adec1", "title": "Take Part in a Bayesian Forecasting Study (the Winner Receives €100/$120)", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/take-part-in-a-bayesian-forecasting-study-the-winner-receives-e100-120/", "published_at": "2021-06-11T12:00:12+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad9749e014f", "title": "The Torture of Straw Men: A Critical Impression of Devezer et al., “The Case for Formal Methodology in Scientific Reform”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-torture-of-straw-men-a-critical-impression-of-devezer-et-al-the-case-for-formal-methodology-in-scientific-reform/", "published_at": "2021-03-25T15:00:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad974abb5a2", "title": "Straw Men Revised", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/straw-men-revised/", "published_at": "2021-03-25T15:00:24+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4b4-f538-72e7-a691-cad97513a14b", "title": "SpaceX Starship SN10 Landing", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/spacex-starship-sn10-landing/", "published_at": "2021-02-19T15:00:35+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfb554722", "title": "Strong Public Claims May Not Reflect Researchers’ Private Convictions", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/strong-public-claims-may-not-reflect-researchers-private-convictions/", "published_at": "2021-02-18T15:00:48+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfc2ff723", "title": "Preprint: Bayesian Estimation of Single-Test Reliability Coefficients", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-bayesian-estimation-of-single-test-reliability-coefficients/", "published_at": "2021-02-13T15:10:45+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfc35458c", "title": "Preprint: Expert Agreement in Prior Elicitation and its Effects on Bayesian Inference", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-expert-agreement-in-prior-elicitation-and-its-effects-on-bayesian-inference/", "published_at": "2021-02-05T14:50:42+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfcaa067d", "title": "Exegesis of “Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers”", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/exegesis-of-bayesian-thinking-for-toddlers/", "published_at": "2021-01-26T15:00:14+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfd120af5", "title": "Preprint: Decisions About Equivalence: A Comparison of TOST, HDI-ROPE, and the Bayes Factor", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-decisions-about-equivalence-a-comparison-of-tost-hdi-rope-and-the-bayes-factor/", "published_at": "2020-12-22T15:00:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfda67e46", "title": "Redefine Statistical Significance XIX: Monkey Business", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/redefine-statistical-significance-xix-monkey-business/", "published_at": "2020-12-10T15:00:28+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfdeef221", "title": "Call for Crowdsourced Analysis: Many Analysts Religion Project (MARP)", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/call-for-crowdsourced-analysis-many-analysts-religion-project-marp/", "published_at": "2020-11-19T15:00:57+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4c3-f1ff-708b-9a67-9d4bfe5c78be", "title": "Overwhelming Evidence for Vaccine Efficacy in the Pfizer Trial: An Interim Bayesian Analysis", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/overwhelming-evidence-for-vaccine-efficacy-in-the-pfizer-trial-an-interim-bayesian-analysis/", "published_at": "2020-11-17T15:00:37+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4cf-87f5-70ee-8dd5-246da18525f5", "title": "Preprint: Same same but different? A closer look at the Sequential Probability Ratio Test and the Sequential Bayes Factor Test", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/preprint-same-same-but-different-a-closer-look-at-the-sequential-probability-ratio-test-and-the-sequential-bayes-factor-test/", "published_at": "2020-11-16T15:00:21+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4cf-87f5-70ee-8dd5-246da22a4190", "title": "A Hidden History of the TOP Guidelines", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/a-hidden-history-of-the-top-guidelines/", "published_at": "2020-11-12T15:00:02+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4cf-87f5-70ee-8dd5-246da2821cb4", "title": "Out Now: Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/out-now-bayesian-thinking-for-toddlers/", "published_at": "2020-10-21T17:22:54+00:00" }, { "id": "01a0e4cf-87f5-70ee-8dd5-246da36638b3", "title": "The Proportion of People Who Wear a Face Mask in a Dutch Indoor Shopping Mall", "url": "https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/the-proportion-of-people-who-wear-a-face-mask-in-a-dutch-indoor-shopping-mall/", "published_at": "2020-10-13T08:47:04+00:00" } ] posts Claim your blog
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bayesianspectacles.org

2026

The Wrath of Psychologyoriginal ↗
25 Sept 2026
Why Fair Coins Tend to Land on the Side They Started — A Wobbly Coin Flip Simulatororiginal ↗
11 Aug 2026
An AI Decryption of Feynman’s Napkinoriginal ↗
17 Jun 2026
Why Academics Should Use AI for Writing: A Case Studyoriginal ↗
28 May 2026
There is No Such Thing as Forgetting (Says an English Opium-Eater)original ↗
6 May 2026
A Transcendental Danceoriginal ↗
14 Apr 2026
YouTube Lecture by Johnny van Doorn on “Theory and Practice of Bayesian Inference Using JASP”original ↗
5 Mar 2026
Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers: The Cartoonoriginal ↗
4 Feb 2026
Redefine Statistical Significance Part XXI: Edgeworth Proposed the .005 Criterion Back in 1885original ↗
14 Jan 2026

2025

A Geometric Intuition for the Logarithmoriginal ↗
31 Oct 2025
From P-values to Bayes Factors with eJABoriginal ↗
24 Oct 2025
“The idea is brilliant and relevant”original ↗
10 Oct 2025
A Chess Scandal Revisited II – Kramnik Respondsoriginal ↗
4 Oct 2025
A Chess Scandal Revisited – Why Nakamura is Right About Cherry-Pickingoriginal ↗
27 Sept 2025
Sir Harold Jeffreys Graces the Cover of “De Psycholoog”original ↗
17 Sept 2025
The Hypothesis-Testing Philosophy of Harold Jeffreys Expressed As a 13-Word Sloganoriginal ↗
4 Jun 2025
Sir Harold Jeffreys and His Cat: A Painting and a Painful Anecdoteoriginal ↗
13 May 2025
Geometric Intuition for a Surprising Resultoriginal ↗
7 May 2025
Introducing the Diamond Open-Access “Journal of Robustness Reports”original ↗
17 Apr 2025
Ockham’s Razor with Polyhedral Dice: Jeffreys Already Did itoriginal ↗
23 Mar 2025
Donald Trump’s Presidency and the Power of Godoriginal ↗
21 Jan 2025

2024

Do the Data Speak for Themselves? A Bayesian Analysis of a Labor Law Caseoriginal ↗
8 Dec 2024
The Value of Scienceoriginal ↗
12 Nov 2024
Bayesian Conference Next Week in Amsterdam: Advances in Network Modeling, Demography, and Moreoriginal ↗
11 Oct 2024
Another Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition: The Answeroriginal ↗
3 Oct 2024
Too Good to be True: A “Fake” Podcast on how to go from p-values to Bayes Factorsoriginal ↗
22 Sept 2024
Another Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuitionoriginal ↗
20 Sept 2024
How to Memorize Bayes’ Ruleoriginal ↗
6 Sept 2024
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [11.] Nine More Chapers on Bayesian Hypothesis Testingoriginal ↗
12 Aug 2024
Aleatory Uncertainty and the River Rubiconoriginal ↗
6 Aug 2024
Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter II: The Dubner Maggidoriginal ↗
14 Jul 2024
Clarkson’s Farm and the Clarkson Ringoriginal ↗
26 Jun 2024
Psychological Methods Lab Receives the 2024 Ammodo Science Award: The Videooriginal ↗
6 Jun 2024
Learning Statistics from Counterexamples: A New Paper by Jim Bergeroriginal ↗
24 May 2024
Preprint: Introducing Synchronous Robustness Reportsoriginal ↗
21 May 2024
Two Grotesque-esque Chess Problemsoriginal ↗
5 May 2024
A Good Check on the Bayes Factororiginal ↗
24 Apr 2024
The University of Amsterdam Bans The Teaching of P-Valuesoriginal ↗
1 Apr 2024
Classroom Demonstration of Ockham’s Razor with Polyhedral Diceoriginal ↗
8 Mar 2024
Does Statistical Amateurism Cause Questionable Research Practices? Book Review of “Never Waste a Good Crisis”original ↗
20 Feb 2024
A Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuition: The Answeroriginal ↗
6 Feb 2024
A Brief Test of Your Bayesian Intuitionoriginal ↗
22 Jan 2024

2023

A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [10.] The Principle of Parsimonyoriginal ↗
25 Dec 2023
Coin Tossing Paper Wins Chinese IgNobel “Pineapple” Awardoriginal ↗
1 Dec 2023
This Prior Distribution is Fineoriginal ↗
27 Nov 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [9.] Wrinch and Jeffreys to the Rescueoriginal ↗
22 Nov 2023
Bayes Factors for Human versus ChatGPT Authorship Discrimination: Ultrafast Review of Bozza et al. (2023)original ↗
9 Nov 2023
Plan Z: Why Politicians Should Ban Government-Funded Research from Being Published in Commercial Outletsoriginal ↗
4 Nov 2023
Preprint: Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flipsoriginal ↗
13 Oct 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [8.] A Bayesian Reading Listoriginal ↗
28 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [7.] Buffon’s Needle and the Pancake Puzzleoriginal ↗
22 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [6.] The Rule of Succession and The Problem of Pointsoriginal ↗
19 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [5.] Learning from the Likelihood Ratiooriginal ↗
13 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [4.] Measuring Probability and Coherenceoriginal ↗
11 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [3.] The Rules of Probabilityoriginal ↗
8 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [2.] The Nature of Probabilityoriginal ↗
6 Sept 2023
A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inference: [1.] Preface, Synopsis, JASPoriginal ↗
4 Sept 2023
The Tomb of Thomas Bayes in 2023original ↗
3 Sept 2023
Coming Up: A Free Course Book on Bayesian Inferenceoriginal ↗
24 Aug 2023
The Psi of Erosoriginal ↗
31 Jul 2023
Order-restrictions in JAGS: Five Methods Fail, One Method Succeedsoriginal ↗
24 Jul 2023
What Determines the Price of LEGO Sets? A Bayesian Analysis with Twists and Turnsoriginal ↗
10 Jul 2023
Visualizing the Equation for the Sample Correlation Coefficientoriginal ↗
3 Jul 2023
Rosenkrantz on Severity and the Problem of Old Evidenceoriginal ↗
3 Apr 2023
The Problem of Old Evidenceoriginal ↗
8 Mar 2023
Bayesian Inference in Three Minutesoriginal ↗
23 Feb 2023
A Presentation on Transparency in Science and Statisticsoriginal ↗
14 Feb 2023
Redefine Statistical Significance XX: A Chat on P-values with ChatGPToriginal ↗
8 Feb 2023
Bayes Factors for Those who Hate Bayes Factors, Part III: The Coherence Plotoriginal ↗
9 Jan 2023

2022

Bayes Factors for Those who Hate Bayes Factors, Part II: Lord Ludicrus, Vampire Count of Incoherence, Insists on a Danceoriginal ↗
14 Dec 2022
Rejoinder – No Evidence for Nudging After Adjusting for Publication Biasoriginal ↗
3 Nov 2022
Bayesian Modeling for Cognitive Science: A Workshop in Amsterdamoriginal ↗
28 Jun 2022
Theory and Practice of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: A Hybrid JASP Workshop in Amsterdamoriginal ↗
27 Jun 2022
Let’s Make Some Enemies: A Podcast on “Learning Bayesian Statistics”original ↗
31 May 2022
Henri Poincaré: Unconscious Thought Theory Avant la Lettreoriginal ↗
19 Apr 2022
A Deterministic View on Lifeoriginal ↗
12 Apr 2022
From p-values to Bayes Factors with 3p√noriginal ↗
22 Feb 2022
A Many-Analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-beingoriginal ↗
7 Feb 2022
Everything You Always Wanted to Know About the Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox But Were Afraid to Askoriginal ↗
24 Jan 2022

2021

Adjusting for Publication Bias with JASP & Roriginal ↗
17 Nov 2021
Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis in Medicineoriginal ↗
9 Nov 2021
Literal and Liberal Translations of Bertrand’s Box Paradoxoriginal ↗
30 Sept 2021
Preprint: Computing and Using Inclusion Bayes Factors for Mixed Fixed and Random Effect Diffusion Decision Modelsoriginal ↗
8 Jul 2021
Preprint: No Need to Choose: Robust Bayesian Meta-Analysis With Competing Publication Bias Adjustment Methodsoriginal ↗
18 Jun 2021
Take Part in a Bayesian Forecasting Study (the Winner Receives €100/$120)original ↗
11 Jun 2021
The Torture of Straw Men: A Critical Impression of Devezer et al., “The Case for Formal Methodology in Scientific Reform”original ↗
25 Mar 2021
Straw Men Revisedoriginal ↗
25 Mar 2021
SpaceX Starship SN10 Landingoriginal ↗
19 Feb 2021
Strong Public Claims May Not Reflect Researchers’ Private Convictionsoriginal ↗
18 Feb 2021
Preprint: Bayesian Estimation of Single-Test Reliability Coefficientsoriginal ↗
13 Feb 2021
Preprint: Expert Agreement in Prior Elicitation and its Effects on Bayesian Inferenceoriginal ↗
5 Feb 2021
Exegesis of “Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers”original ↗
26 Jan 2021

2020

Preprint: Decisions About Equivalence: A Comparison of TOST, HDI-ROPE, and the Bayes Factororiginal ↗
22 Dec 2020
Redefine Statistical Significance XIX: Monkey Businessoriginal ↗
10 Dec 2020
Call for Crowdsourced Analysis: Many Analysts Religion Project (MARP)original ↗
19 Nov 2020
Overwhelming Evidence for Vaccine Efficacy in the Pfizer Trial: An Interim Bayesian Analysisoriginal ↗
17 Nov 2020
Preprint: Same same but different? A closer look at the Sequential Probability Ratio Test and the Sequential Bayes Factor Testoriginal ↗
16 Nov 2020
A Hidden History of the TOP Guidelinesoriginal ↗
12 Nov 2020
Out Now: Bayesian Thinking for Toddlersoriginal ↗
21 Oct 2020
The Proportion of People Who Wear a Face Mask in a Dutch Indoor Shopping Malloriginal ↗
13 Oct 2020
Next